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Skins.Fan

03-30-2005, 11:55 AM

2005 Redskins NFL Draft Preview
By: Trevor Walters
March 30, 2005

That time has come once again, friends and neighbors. The time when we gather with one another, give the old Burgundy jersey in the closet a rare spring outing, and anxiously sit through one Chris Berman nostalgic story after another while we wait to see who we’ll select in the annual amateur draft. We can root for our own favorites, as well as root against the success of those in our division. It is not unlike most Sundays in the fall really, except that the painful reminder that real football is still several painful months away always lurks just over our mind’s horizon. No matter, we have our weekend in late April, and we have until then to agonize over what will take place in that brief 48 hour span.

If you’ll remember last year’s draft preview column, I only went through the top ten picks because those were the ones that most directly affected us, and I’ll be doing that same thing this year. There are so many possibilities that a reasonable argument could be made for any number of different selections, but listed below is how I believe the first ten picks of the draft will go down.

1. San Francisco – Aaron Rodgers, QB, Cal: Rodgers and Alex Smith of Utah have battled one another for the top spot since the end of the season, and I believe that Rodgers gets the nod due to his athleticism, arm, and the fact that he’s a relatively local product. Rodgers will have to step in right away and start for a team that proved to be the league’s worst in 2004. He’ll have to do so while playing for new 49er head coach Mike Nolan, who got the job despite being thoroughly worthless. Congratulations Aaron, and welcome to hell.
2. Miami – Ronnie Brown, HB, Auburn: Brown is, in my mind, one of the few ‘sure things’ in this draft. Even if Ricky Williams returns, and that seems to be an obvious prediction, he won’t be playing for the Dolphins, and Brown will see to it that no one misses him. Brown is the most complete back in the draft, and in my opinion, is also its best player.
3. Cleveland – Alex Smith, QB, Utah: Cleveland, as they typically do, needs everything, and they’ll begin their latest rebuilding project with what they believe to be a franchise quarterback. Having already acquired Trent Dilfer in a trade with Seattle, Smith isn’t likely to see the field barring an injury in 2005. Given his intelligence and a year to observe from the sidelines, picking Smith here makes sense down the road, which is where Cleveland should have their attention turned since no one they could select here will make them a winner this season.
4. Chicago – Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan: Despite signing free agent Muhsin Muhammad to an absurdly large contract, the Bears still need playmakers on the offensive side, and Edwards has been rated by many as the top player in the draft. Part of QB Rex Grossman’s problem might have been a lack of talent around him, so picking up Edwards here makes sense. Combining with Muhammad, and running back Thomas Jones, Edwards would given the Bears enough offensive firepower that it would almost be safe to bring Jonathan Quinn back for another season.
5. Tampa Bay – Carnell Williams, HB, Auburn: The mutual love-fest between Coach Jon Gruden and Williams began months ago at the Senior Bowl, and has blossomed almost to the point that The Carpenters ‘Close to You’ might be played in the background to set the mood when Commissioner Tagliabue is announcing the selection. Having signed Brian Griese to a long-term extension and drafted wide receiver Michael Clayton of LSU last season, the Bucs will turn their attention the backfield and finally make official what has been the most easily predicted selection of this year’s draft.
6. Tennessee – Adam Jones, CB, West Virginia: Having purged a large portion of their roster for cap reasons, the Titans begin their roster retooling by selecting Jones to replace departed Samari Rolle, who, since being accused of spousal abuse, was required by league mandate to sign with the Ravens.
7. Minnesota (from Oakland) – Shawne Merriman, LB, Maryland: Perhaps my judgment has been clouded somewhat by what I’d like for them to do, but selecting Merriman here actually makes a good bit of sense. The Vikings have been busier than a parole officer at Ravens Training Camp this off-season trying to sculpt a defense from the pile of purple rubble on their roster, and adding the versatility that Merriman brings would provide a big boost to that transformation. Clearly, Mike Williams is also a possibility here, but with the abundance of receivers already on the roster and a defense that has been the ruination of the team over the past few seasons, drafting the best defensive player in the draft is actually quite logical. Also a possibility, the Vikings fail to get their pick to the podium on time, and once they finally get their selection to the proper personnel, they inexplicably draft a power-hitting shortstop.
8. Arizona – Derrick Johnson, OLB, Texas: Never caring much for need, Cardinals Dennis Green is known for taking the best player available. Though the Cardinals have a glaring need at corner, that propensity to draft the top player on the board, along with the playmaking potential Johnson brings, makes him the pick. Antrel Rolle is a possibility should Green have a temporary moment of clarity and actually use his pick to fill a gaping hole on the roster.
9. Washington – Mike Williams, WR, USC: I’ll go into my explanation momentarily.
10. Detroit – Marcus Spears, DL, LSU: The Lions have glaring needs at right tackle, as well as on the defensive line, and Spears is best suited among all available linemen to fill the latter void. Spears can slide inside to rush the passer, as he would most often be used in Detroit, or he can provide solid support against the run from the edge. Before long, Detroit will have no other recourse than to be a good team, though will Matt Millen at the helm, I wouldn’t put my pink slip on the line for that bet.

I honestly tried to be realistic about our chances to get Mike Williams, and I think that my scenario is definitely a plausible overview of what may happen. As it stands, I see only Minnesota and possibly Tennessee as obstacles to clear for Williams to be available to us at nine, and both of those squads each have more pressing needs than receiver, so his falling to us isn’t out of the question. I realize that there are many among us that believe, even if available, that we should pass on Williams and go a different direction. With that in mind, let me spell out my reasoning, completely independent of Williams’ ability, as to why he should be the pick.

cont.

Skins.Fan

03-30-2005, 11:56 AM

cont.

We all know how putrid our offense was last season, and we are well aware that our only legitimate number one receiver left town almost a month ago. I’ll grant you that Williams may not be able to successfully be the top guy from day one, but I think we can all agree that he’ll get there eventually, and much faster than either David Patten or Santana Moss.

Even if you think as I do and analyze our 2005 receivers as a pair for the sake of comparison with their 2004 counterparts that still has to generate a sense of anxiety as to whether or not the new duo will be able to improve upon the production of their predecessors. Bottom line folks, the addition of Casey Rabach and the subtraction of Rod Gardner are not enough to improve this offense. We need a legitimate number one receiver, and at the very least, another set of dependable hands for Patrick Ramsey to put the ball in. As much as we’d all like to believe that Taylor Jacobs and Darnerian McCants are stars in waiting, they are both largely unproven. While the same could be said for Williams as a rookie, his skill set is one that opposing defenses have to account for from week to week, and as yet Jacobs and McCants do not strike similar fear in the hearts of our opponents.

When a team has a defense as stout as ours, yet fails to even reach .500, then the direction in which it should go with its top pick is as obvious as Jerry Jones’ cosmetic surgeries. We have got to draft for offense, especially when there is the possibility that a game-changing force such as Williams may fall to us. I would take Williams even if it meant our defense slips slightly from its third place ranking. We can win with a defense ranked somewhere near tenth, but we’ve proven we can’t win without scoring some points. Erasmus James or any corner we might take won’t add so much as an extra point to our total.

I suppose one could make a decent argument that receiver isn’t our greatest area of need, and that we should shift our focus squarely on corner in the upcoming draft. The reason that I believe that this isn’t as pressing a need as receiver is that in Shawn Springs and Walt Harris, we have two very good corners that have proven they can succeed in Gregg Williams’ scheme. Springs played last season at a Pro-Bowl level, while Harris has started over 100 games in his career, and also played very well in his limited opportunities last season. I wish we still had Smoot, but I’m comfortable with Harris.

The perceived need at corner comes below Harris on the depth chart. Garnell Wilds, who played rather well in his lone opportunity last season, figures to have the inside track at the nickel corner role, with Rufus Brown and rented mule Ade Jimoh pressing for time as well. While I certainly believe that we should look to add another corner via the draft or free agency, I believe it would be overkill to draft one with our first selection, since we already have two starter-quality corners in place. Even though Harris, who will be 31 by the beginning of the season, isn’t a long-term solution, we are not in a position as a team that we can spend our top pick on a guy who will eventually replace someone already entrenched in the lineup. We’re coming off of a 6-10 season; we need to fill holes, not provide apprenticeships.

The only other feasible place on which the first pick could be spent is the defensive line, where the lack of a pass rusher still remains. There isn’t one person in the draft that seems to be the type of player that can come in and make an immediate impact, though Erasmus James seems to have the best chance. However, much like my reasoning at corner, drafting James is essentially drafting to create depth, which is a novel concept when all other needs are filled. Given that we managed the top defense in the conference without a pure pass rushing end, I believe that this need falls to at least third on our list, and therefore doesn’t merit top pick consideration either.

There is always the possibility that we’ll receive an offer enticing enough to move down in the draft where a lesser receiver could be had while also snagging a linemen or corner as well. Truthfully, if Williams weren’t there at nine when our turn comes up, this is what I’d be rooting for since I don’t really believe that there would be anyone available to us at a position of need that merits such lofty selection status. I have my doubts that Williams will be there when we pick, but my desire to see him in the Burgundy and Gold simply wouldn’t allow me to not rationalize a scenario in my mock draft that didn’t have him catching touchdowns in front of the home crowd at FedEx next season.

The good thing about having so many different paths that this draft could take is that we’re likely to have a few different opportunities to improve ourselves that no one could have forecast. Unlike last season, where selecting Kellen Winslow, Jr. would have thrown me into a rage heretofore reserved only for home improvement projects, there aren’t really any feasible developments that I couldn’t get behind.

As the draft approaches, discussions will heat up and rumors will intensify, so keep checking back for your weekly Redskins football fix. Hail to the Redskins!

Questions and Comments should be sent to Trevor Walters at skins.fan@comcast.net

BigCountry

03-30-2005, 12:34 PM

SkinsASchamps

03-30-2005, 12:42 PM

Good article. I agree with him that Mike williams is our choice if he is there.

He has Minnesota going after Merrimen which I hadnt thought about until now and dont really see that happening. Tice does have ties to Maryland though so we can hope...

Gibbs4Life

03-30-2005, 12:58 PM

i dont think minnesota will take merriman, but there is a good chance they will take derrick johnson. They are doing a entire revamp of there defense. Harris is a good MLB and thomas is a good OLB, if they brought in johnson that would have a very solid corp. As it is right now they have no OLB, cause they let claiborne go to the rams. So i think its a good possibility since there really big on make there defense beastly.

If they did then arizonas pick will probably be cedric benson, based on that draft board. Personally i think benson is almost an exact version of ricky and probably be the second pick by the dolphins.

If we got mike williams id cry. Thats the best we can do in this draft. Anything after mike williams is settling.

Meatsnack

03-30-2005, 01:00 PM

You can't do a mock draft purely as a fan which is what this guy did. If he wasn't a Redskins fan, he would have the Vikes taking Mike Williams, which is what almost everyone else that knows anything (not saying this guy doesn't know anything, he's just a hopeless homer) has them taking Mike Williams.

Everyone knows this because Mike Tice asked Williams how he felt replacing a legend like Randy Moss. Given that even a Cro-Magnon like Tice is aware of how public a forum a Combine meeting room is, don't you think it could have been smoke?

No less a source than Footballs Future has us getting Braylon Edwards, who everyone knows will go in the top 4. Are they Redskins fans?

Cut the guy some slack, he clearly put in a lot of work on this. He probably deserves better from his fellow 'Skins fans than a terse dismissal as the product of a "Hopeless Homer".

The reasoning behind all the picks is explained and makes as much sense as anything does before the clock is ticking.

BurgundyNGold

03-30-2005, 01:09 PM

The guy makes some good arguments. Unfortunately, he invalidated most of them when he proclaimed that he was in the tank for MW. I would like to see this happen, but I'm afraid the Vikes will nab MW at 7.

Estrn_Shoreskin

03-30-2005, 01:27 PM

Unfortunately I don't think we have a snowball's chance in hell at getting Mike Williams at 9. I really think the Titans will take him and if they don't I am sure the Vikings will. I want him as bad as everyone else and would love for some crazy draft day magic to happen for us. If he is gone then I hope we trade down and get one of the remaining elite corners or grab Mark Clayton.

BurgundyNGold

03-30-2005, 01:31 PM

cmdlost29

03-30-2005, 02:38 PM

Unfortunately I don't think we have a snowball's chance in hell at getting Mike Williams at 9.

Me either, but even if he fell I'd rather trade down for DB and DL help. We don't need a WR as much as we need the other two positions

skinfanjon

03-30-2005, 03:59 PM

From what I've gathered from various sources, the only way Minnesota doesn't take MW is if Derrick Johnson is there and they choose to address WR with their 18th pick...Tennessee probably looks at Johnson and chooses between him, Rolle or Pacman. (my guess is Rolle) This leaves Minnesota free to choose between Johnson and Williams. As much as I want MW, I think Minnesota wants him also and will address DE w/ their 18th pick, content to go into '05 with their current linebacking corp.

dj_stouty

03-30-2005, 04:16 PM

From what I've gathered from various sources, the only way Minnesota doesn't take MW is if Derrick Johnson is there and they choose to address WR with their 18th pick...

Here is a hypothetical for you...

If you were the Vikings...Would you rather have the combo of:

Mike Williams
Thomas Davis/or/Channing Crowder (or any other Linebacker at #18)

Or

Derrick Johnson
Mark Clayton

BIGSEF3

03-30-2005, 04:17 PM

trevor, thats the first mock w/ explaination that actually makes me think we should draft offense, let alone mike williams if he's available. i was leaning more towards williamson if we got a WR, but anyway, as always, a good read.

silverspring

03-30-2005, 05:36 PM

Trevor is driving the MW bandwagon. Tennessee will take him if he is there end of story. I want MW but this is a very doubtful scenario...if we want MW we should try and trade up for him.

techskinsfan

03-30-2005, 06:22 PM

im not sold on minn taking mw...they do have a buncha wrs and were fine without wr last year when moss didnt play...they still did well...i dont think tenn will take him...they have calico and bennet its not a pressing need...i think minn could go rb before wr...zona wont take wr...tb i think will go rb...if all the picks ahead of us are offense then he doenst fall...i think tenn and minn go defense so...the wild card is clevland...if they go edwards, which they could...then chitown goes mw im all but sure...those couple picks before us will be nerverackin for me...24 days? not soon enough!

OCSkinzFan

03-30-2005, 06:49 PM

silverspring

03-30-2005, 06:54 PM

Minnesota’s defense was ranked the fifth worst. Tennessee’s, sixth worst. I seriously don't know how everybody can be so sure that these two teams will draft offense first. Seems a bit counterintuitive.

True but...
Tennessee's offensive coordinator use to be Mike WIlliams coach. And there are rumours he is pushing to draft him

Minnesota just gave away there best offensive weapon.

BurgundyNGold

03-30-2005, 07:06 PM

True but...
Tennessee's offensive coordinator use to be Mike WIlliams coach. And there are rumours he is pushing to draft him

Minnesota just gave away there best offensive weapon.
And they just lost 100 catches a year in Kevin Dyson.

OCSkinzFan

03-30-2005, 07:29 PM

BurgundyNGold

03-30-2005, 07:33 PM

Didn't they do okay when Moss was hurt?
Yeah, lack of offense has not been what has ende dtheir past few seasons. They need serious help on D. Plus, didn't the Vikes just lose an OLB in FA? Derrick Johnson starts to look a bit more like a possibility.

silverspring

03-30-2005, 07:41 PM

OCSkinzFan

03-30-2005, 08:07 PM

That is just it though, unless they change they are an Offensive team, that is their MO.
Yea, and the Skins are a Defense team, so don't we want to drasticly improve our Offense?

OCSkinzFan

03-30-2005, 08:13 PM

Yeah, lack of offense has not been what has ende dtheir past few seasons. They need serious help on D. Plus, didn't the Vikes just lose an OLB in FA? Derrick Johnson starts to look a bit more like a possibility.

They also acquired a real good LB (Napoleon Harris) as part of the Randy Moss trade to Oakland Raiders along with the #7 overall pick in the '04 Draft.
Harris will be the new anchor of the LB crew but that doesn't rule out Johnson.

OCSkinzFan

03-30-2005, 08:26 PM

I just foun this in a Johnson interview:

Q: You probably get asked this a lot, but which teams do you think are showing the most interest in you?
Johnson: "Well, coaches from Minnesota and Miami worked me out after I lifted. I think the front runners based on the rumors I've been hearing are Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Cleveland."
Interesting...

Here's the LINK (http://www.redskins.com/news/draftCentralDetail.jsp?id=6259)

silverspring

03-30-2005, 08:55 PM

Yea, and the Skins are a Defense team, so don't we want to drasticly improve our Offense?

Just cause the skins happen to have a good defense doesn't mean they are a defense team. When spurrier was here would you call his focus defense? Gibbs is known for...offense. But I think we are trying to be a well rounded team rather than a dominant team one way or another.

Feel free to hold onto this thread of hope that mw is just going to fall down to 9. But it is about as probable as brunell becoming a proball qb again.

OCSkinzFan

03-30-2005, 10:23 PM

Just cause the skins happen to have a good defense doesn't mean they are a defense team. .
I agree (But I don't think you get my point) So you would have to say, just because Mini happens to have a good O doesn't make them an Offensive team.
When spurrier was here would you call his focus defense? When George Allen was here... Spurrier's not here, this point makes absolutely no sense.
Gibbs is known for...offense. . NOT LAST YEAR. Last year the Redskins were known for DEFENSE. You are what you are, not what you wish you were.
But I think we are trying to be a well rounded team rather than a dominant team one way or another.
GOOD POINT! I agree... Don't you think Mini wants to be well rounded or is this something only the geniuses on Gibbs' staff have thought up? I'm sure Mike Tice (who used all of his draft picks in '04 on defense) is okay with not winning the S.B. because his D sucked.
Feel free to hold onto this thread of hope that mw is just going to fall down to 9. But it is about as probable as brunell becoming a proball qb again.
Burnell does play PROBALL.
SO thanks, I'll think remain logical and I'll keep my glass half full thank you.

Skins.Fan

03-30-2005, 11:53 PM

All three of the cbssportsline draft guys (http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/draft/mock) have Williams available at nine, though none predict we'll select him. Pat Kirwan of nfl.com (http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/8307849) has Williams as the ninth player taken. There are a million mocks, and just as many scenarios. The fact that I'm fully behind selecting Mike Williams isn't the reason I believe he'll fall to us at nine. All of those I just mentioned, as well as countless others, don't have similar motivations, and they have him there when we pick. So I don't think my preferences deter from any validity the mock might have. Last season, I was very much for selecting Sean Taylor (http://www.midatlanticsports.net/guest/gu006.htm) and he turned out to be the pick.

We had the 3rd ranked defense in the NFL, and an offense that had to be thankful the Bears were around. It seems obvious to me, then, that we should use our top pick on offense, and since we already have plenty of speed receivers, a guy like Williams is a natural fit. This offense is not going to rise to respectibility by simply adding Rabach, Patten, and Moss, and subtracting Gardner and Coles.

We can win if the defense were to slip a few places, not that I'm rooting for that, but it can happen. But we've proven that we can't win without offense. We need guys in here who will put points on the board.

COUNCILMAN

03-30-2005, 11:56 PM

I believe Minnesota will take Mike Williams at #7 because of the need to replace Randy Moss with a Randy Moss kind of receiver who can play jump ball. In addition, the Vikings already have an abundance of draft picks so trading down for more draft picks is unnecessary as well as out of the question, UNLESS, some team would offer than yet another defensive player in order to swap picks. That also is unlikely.

They draft Williams.

NCskinsfanatic

03-31-2005, 12:22 AM

Nice article and I dont think it is completely out of the question that Mike Williams will not be there. Of course anything can happen between now and then. The 49ers and Chargers could make a deal for Rivers, giving the bolts the first pick, any number of scenarios could play themselves out. I feel pretty confident if Williams were there Gibbs would snatch him. I also feel like if he isnt we should trade down and acquire a 2nd. We could then fill our needs at WR and CB with players capable of contributing this season.

silverspring

03-31-2005, 12:30 AM

Burnell does play PROBALL.
SO thanks, I'll think remain logical and I'll keep my glass half full thank you.

:lol1:
Yeah I know I am a bit pessimistic. The other pessimistic possibility is that williams could be taken as the top WR in the draft.
Hard to imagine he makes it pass 7, but if Williams drops to 9, oh how sweet it would be.

CNYSkinFan

03-31-2005, 10:34 AM

silverspring

03-31-2005, 12:56 PM

Tennesee is going to go after one of the cornerbacks, either Rolle or Jones, to replace Samari Rolle. Chicago will go for Braylon Edwards. Minnesota was to go for Mike Williams to replace Randy Moss. They addressed many defensive needs already in free agency.

Now if they trade for Gardner or want to trade up to our #9 from their #18 for a shot at both Williams and Johnson then that could be an interesting situation.

Well trade down options aside. If Williams goes at #8, 1 spot above us, it will be a sad day in redskins world. Maybe minnesota will take gardner to swap spots with us... :rolleyes: