Blog Report: Washington Trade Down Partners

[CNYSkinFan]

Hey guys I was doing some research on possible trade down scenarios and put it on the blog.

You can read the scenarios HERE (http://www.hailredskins.com/blog/index.php?p=46)

And then discuss it in thisn thread.

Hope you enjoy. I am voting for the Minnesota Scenario myself.

[whitskins]

Another nice blog, CNY. I really like this new feature you guys are putting up great stuff.

I think Merriman and Derrick Johnson could become big time players that trade partners will come calling for.

If we trade with anyone then we need to get a second and another pick. I mean the Browns traded their second to Detroit just to move up one spot. If a team like Minnesota or Denver wants to trade then they need to offer up a legit bounty.

[CNYSkinFan]

Another nice blog, CNY. I really like this new feature you guys are putting up great stuff.

I think Merriman and Derrick Johnson could become big time players that trade partners will come calling for.

If we trade with anyone then we need to get a second and another pick. I mean the Browns traded their second to Detroit just to move up one spot. If a team like Minnesota or Denver wants to trade then they need to offer up a legit bounty.

I am not sure #9 is a muylitple pick trading spot...but it could be. It will all depend on who is available after Minnesota picks.

[skins111111]

if we pass on any of thoes players I think I would be sick

[techskinsfan]

i would not trade out if williams or edwards are there...the rest could def be used as trade bait...both cbs...johnson def...and merriman cuz i am almost positive dallas takes him if he falls to them

[CNYSkinFan]

if we pass on any of thoes players I think I would be sick

I have said this before. If we want to trade down it will mean giving up on either Williams, Jones, Rolle, or Edwards. Otherwise there is no calue in trading up for a potential trade partner and we get nothing in return.

[skins111111]

I have said this before. If we want to trade down it will mean giving up on either Williams, Jones, Rolle, or Edwards. Otherwise there is no calue in trading up for a potential trade partner and we get nothing in return.

the only way I would be ok with tradeing down is if thoes 4 were off the board. ( they are bigtime impact players) OUR future :)

[DUCKIN_TACKLERS]

CNYSKINSFAN.. I think if MW is there no trade partner will come up with a deal sweet enough to talk us out of that spot. HOWEVER...you failed to mention a trade posablility that i think has some weight and that is Houston moving up to grab the top tackle in the draft who may very well be available at 9. They have routinely tried very hard to sure up that position and i think would be willing to pay the price of some extra picks to secure The top tackle.

[BurgundyNGold]

You work is solid, good stuff. But, IMO, your suppositions are flawed.
For any of them to work one of the four players we are targeting, Braylon Edwards, Mike Williams, Antrel Rolle, or Adam Jones must be available. These are most likely draft day scenarios.
What if Derrick Johnson falls to 9 and somebody wants to pounce on him before another likely candidate. Or if Shawne Merriman falls to 9 and somebody wants to trade up to deny Dallass their quarry?

[CNYSkinFan]

You work is solid, good stuff. But, IMO, your suppositions are flawed.

What if Derrick Johnson falls to 9 and somebody wants to pounce on him before another likely candidate. Or if Shawne Merriman falls to 9 and somebody wants to trade up to deny Dallass their quarry?

My supposition was germaine to those scenarios only. Not all scenarios. I just wanted to show there are ALOT of trade possibilities.

However I doubt Merriman and Johnson will command as much trade value as Mike Williams or Antrel Rolle. But I may be wrong.

[MWballer]

It would be sweet if we traded with dallas and picked up their second and still got rolle or whomever we would have drafted at 9 with their 11, Plus we'd take there 2nd rounder.

[BurgundyNGold]

My supposition was germaine to those scenarios only. Not all scenarios. I just wanted to show there are ALOT of trade possibilities.

However I doubt Merriman and Johnson will command as much trade value as Mike Williams or Antrel Rolle. But I may be wrong.
Fair enough. But we both know that if either Edwards or Williams is there at 9, they're as good as wearing B&G.

[BurgundyNGold]

It would be sweet if we traded with dallas and picked up their second and still got rolle or whomever we would have drafted at 9 with their 11, Plus we'd take there 2nd rounder.
Why, exactly, would Dallass do that? Who will be there at 9 that they won't be able to get at 11?

[CNYSkinFan]

It would be sweet if we traded with dallas and picked up their second and still got rolle or whomever we would have drafted at 9 with their 11, Plus we'd take there 2nd rounder.

Never....EVER trade with someone in your own division. Let alone the Cowboys. IT can never be good.

[Jimreaper007]

My supposition was germaine to those scenarios only. Not all scenarios. I just wanted to show there are ALOT of trade possibilities.

However I doubt Merriman and Johnson will command as much trade value as Mike Williams or Antrel Rolle. But I may be wrong.

I agree that those two are most likely to motivate people to move up.

[Kanman21]

You work is solid, good stuff. But, IMO, your suppositions are flawed.

What if Derrick Johnson falls to 9 and somebody wants to pounce on him before another likely candidate. Or if Shawne Merriman falls to 9 and somebody wants to trade up to deny Dallass their quarry?



I'd like to hope that if the Skins got a trade offer that blew them away, they'd make the trade regardless of whether or not MW or anyone else is there. If the trade benefits the team more than the player, then the trade will happen no matter who is still left.

[CNYSkinFan]

Fair enough. But we both know that if either Edwards or Williams is there at 9, they're as good as wearing B&G.

Actually I don't think that.

A.) I really think Edwards will go to Chicago and Williams to MInnesota and I would crap quarters if that did not happen.

b.) We are pretty set at WR and I am not so sure drafting a rookie at #9 wouldn't be a wasted pick. I would rather use him as trade bait and improve other places.

[MWballer]

Dallas wants Shawn Merriman and many believe were going to draft him so they trade up with us so that they can grad him. But the Merriman talk was all smoke signals and we wanted rolle all along and we then pic up rolle at 11 and get Dallas's 2nd rounder. What could be so bad about that? Nothing to me especially since i see Merriman as a bust

[Kanman21]

Actually I don't think that.

A.) I really think Edwards will go to Chicago and Williams to MInnesota and I would crap quarters if that did not happen.

b.) We are pretty set at WR and I am not so sure drafting a rookie at #9 wouldn't be a wasted pick. I would rather use him as trade bait and improve other places.


I also agree with this. It doesn't look like either of those guys are gonna fall to 9. Braylon's status hasn't changed and MW is moving up a lot of draft boards and there are at least 3 teams ahead of us who want a WR so it doesn't look too good on the WR front.

[BurgundyNGold]

Actually I don't think that.

A.) I really think Edwards will go to Chicago and Williams to MInnesota and I would crap quarters if that did not happen.

b.) We are pretty set at WR and I am not so sure drafting a rookie at #9 wouldn't be a wasted pick. I would rather use him as trade bait and improve other places.
I actually happen to agree with your logic. However, I don't know if the FO sees it the same way. I'd like to trade down at least once and nab Carlos Rodgers, Heath Miller or another guy the FO is specificlaly targeting while picking up a couple of other first day picks.

[CNYSkinFan]

Dallas wants Shawn Merriman and many believe were going to draft him so they trade up with us so that they can grad him. But the Merriman talk was all smoke signals and we wanted rolle all along and we then pic up rolle at 11 and get Dallas's 2nd rounder. What could be so bad about that? Nothing to me especially since i see Merriman as a bust

Listen. Just say no to trading with Dallas.

Why let Dallas get the guy they want and we have to face him 2 times a year?

Why would Dallas make us better and have to face us two times a year?

Snyder hates Dallas, Jones hates Washington. And that is the way God intended it.

Do not mess with the Creator's intentions.

[guinness4health]

i think the best chance for a trade down is if one of the three running backs drop or one of the quarterbacks.

don't see either of the 2 wideouts being available (and if they were i think we take him)
and i don;t see anyone offering enough to get one of the corners, considered there is talent to be had later in the draft at that position.

[MWballer]

Me i think it would just add fuel to the fire if we traded our pick to dallas and merriman ended up being a bust, we still got what we wanted, and got a second round pic from our enemies, and we could laugh at all those dallas fans who are so happy about them having two picks in the first round and think there geniouses

[skinfanjon]

Agreed, never, EVER trade with Dallas. I don't even think our FO's phones work when you dial those Dallas area codes, they just spontaniously combust...Edwards will most certainly not be there, and MW probably goes at 7 to Minnesota. If that is true, I hope Burgundy and Gold's scenario of Heath MIller and Carlos Rodgers is beautiful. I'm just curious, do most of you feel there is a big dropoff between Pacman/Rolle and Rodgers? I just don't see a big enough difference to constitute taking Pacman or Rolle when you can get Rodgers + 1 later

[CNYSkinFan]

Me i think it would just add fuel to the fire if we traded our pick to dallas and merriman ended up being a bust, we still got what we wanted, and got a second round pic from our enemies, and we could laugh at all those dallas fans who are so happy about them having two picks in the first round and think there geniouses

Which is another reason Dallas will not trade with us. They may like Merriman but they will take Cody before trading with us.

[BurgundyNGold]

Listen. Just say no to trading with Dallas.

Why let Dallas get the guy they want and we have to face him 2 times a year?

Why would Dallas make us better and have to face us two times a year?

Snyder hates Dallas, Jones hates Washington. And that is the way God intended it.

Do not mess with the Creator's intentions.
Wasn't Dallass part of our trade down shuffle we did that year we drafted Ramsey? If so, it's not unprecedented... only highly discouraged.

[CNYSkinFan]

Wasn't Dallass part of our trade down shuffle we did that year we drafted Ramsey? If so, it's not unprecedented... only highly discouraged.

Don't know..,....any draft gurus out there that remember all the trade partners that day?

[redskin_rich]

Wasn't Dallass part of our trade down shuffle we did that year we drafted Ramsey? If so, it's not unprecedented... only highly discouraged.
I'm not sure about that deal but I think we traded a #1 the following year to get Dallas' pick when we drafted a stiff named Andre Johnson.

Edit- This was a few years earlier than the Ramsey draft.

[BurgundyNGold]

Don't know..,....any draft gurus out there that remember all the trade partners that day?
I thought it was Dallass to get us to about 20 and New England to get us to 32.

[CNYSkinFan]

I'm not sure about that deal but I think we traded a #1 the following year to get Dallas' pick when we drafted a stiff named Andre Johnson.

And that is why you don't trade with Dallas. God punishes you.

[fent]

Don't know..,....any draft gurus out there that remember all the trade partners that day?

we traded with the patriots (who took daniel graham) and Atlanta (who took Duckett) i believe. Dallass actually had the 6 pick that year and traded down 2 with KC to take Roy Williams at 8. Dallas wasn't involved with us in the trade downs at all.

[CNYSkinFan]

we traded with the patriots (who took daniel graham) and Atlanta (who took Duckett) i believe. Dallass actually had the 6 pick that year and traded down 2 with KC to take Roy Williams at 8. Dallas wasn't involved with us in the trade downs at all.

Good.....I thought I would of remembered a trade with Dallas. Thanks Fent.

[BurgundyNGold]

we traded with the patriots (who took daniel graham) and Atlanta (who took Duckett) i believe. Dallass actually had the 6 pick that year and traded down 2 with KC to take Roy Williams at 8. Dallas wasn't involved with us in the trade downs at all.
Thanks for schoolin' me Fent :D

[Redskin4Life]

My supposition was germaine to those scenarios only. Not all scenarios. I just wanted to show there are ALOT of trade possibilities.

However I doubt Merriman and Johnson will command as much trade value as Mike Williams or Antrel Rolle. But I may be wrong.
I believe you're right about the big 4... but what about the possibility that one of the 3 elite RBs becomes available @ 9 (most likely if the our Big 4 are gone)? Even more trade partners....

[Redskin4Life]

I also agree with this. It doesn't look like either of those guys are gonna fall to 9. Braylon's status hasn't changed and MW is moving up a lot of draft boards and there are at least 3 teams ahead of us who want a WR so it doesn't look too good on the WR front.
That's not necessarily true... I hear Troy Williamson is moving up the boards at a ridiculous rate and could end up in the Top 8 picks.

[BurgundyNGold]

That's not necessarily true... I hear Troy Williamson is moving up the boards at a ridiculous rate and could end up in the Top 8 picks.
Akh won't like to hear that. He's not a big fan of guys that shoot up the prospect board based on the strength of their workouts. :D

[sdredskinsfan]

Thanks for the article cny. I agree that Edwards, Williams, Jones, or Rolle have to be available at the #9 slot for there to be a trade down opportunity. But, then again, who knows what's going to happen, which is why the draft is so exciting.

[fent]

Thanks for schoolin' me Fent :D

no prob. unfortunately i'm well schooled in Dallas's drafting past as that's all i ever heard about from April-September every year growing up.

[fent]

But, then again, who knows what's going to happen, which is why the draft is so exciting.

exactly. who here a year ago would have thought that Stephen Jackson would fall to 24? stupid things happen on draft day.

[silverspring]

i don't understand how you base a lot of your trade downs on edwards or williams. if they are there at 9 we would be crazy not to pick them up. But neither of them are going to be there at 8.

[BurgundyNGold]

i don't understand how you base a lot of your trade downs on edwards or williams. if they are there at 9 we would be crazy not to pick them up. But neither of them are going to be there at 8.
I agree, they won't be there after 7. I think CNY is basing his article on the fact that either BE or MW at 9 would bring considerable trade value.

[OCSkinzFan]

I have said this before. If we want to trade down it will mean giving up on either Williams, Jones, Rolle, or Edwards. Otherwise there is no calue in trading up for a potential trade partner and we get nothing in return.

I disagree. If one of those four players are there, then we take them. There's not really a need if they're there (at least in my mind) to trade down, (unless we get some serious multiple picks including a decent first rounder).

I think the most likely scenarios for trading is if:

a) one of the top 2 QBs fell
b) one of the top three RBs fell
c) the best LB, Johnson fell

A, B and C all have a great deal of value and nobody can tell who's going to fall on draft day. If one of the above listed players falls you can be sure that the top two WRs and CBs won't be there and Washington won't need that much in the way of additional picks to move down and get a TE or some other CB or maybe even Merriman.

[CNYSkinFan]

The trade scenarios were if we wanted to trade down. Yeas the rbs could fall and the qbs could fall but I doubt they will. It is most likely one of the four players I listed is going to be available. If you want to trade down, these are the scenarios....in my opinion.

[cnhnyy]

There is no way cowgirls trade ther #11 and the second rounder to #9. It is just not a fair trade and they have to pay more money. I mean, They could just trade the second rounder to NO for Howard and keep the #11.

I have NEVER heard any team wants to move up in this draft while tons want to move down. It is a weak top 10 draft and I think we will stay at where we are.

[CNYSkinFan]

There is no way cowgirls trade ther #11 and the second rounder to #9. It is just not a fair trade and they have to pay more money. I mean, They could just trade the second rounder to NO for Howard and keep the #11.

I have NEVER heard any team wants to move up in this draft while tons want to move down. It is a weak top 10 draft and I think we will stay at where we are.

I think you are right. But very few teams who actually want to move up will publicly say so since that would drive the price of doing so up. I think it is possible as talent starts coming off the board that someone may make a play for #9 if williams is there. IF williams is not there it is not as likely but possible.

[bgforever]

CNYSkinsfan,

I see where you skipped the Colts, I believe they're between 26-32.

This is a likely trade partner, granted they have a #1 pick at that spot. They are in need of a pass defender, even though they drafted Jason David last year. With a yr under his belt, he should be better. Jefferson was ok as depth. However, Nick Harper is a thorn to them, and they make no attempt to resign him. This is bad for Harper and good for the Colts.

They can trade up with Washington for their#9 pick, give the money that Harper wanted to get a far better CB, and save from the signing of Edgerrin James as a franchised player that apparently doesn't look like he'll be able to be traded, unless Minnesota or JAX, makes a move.

Washington could then pick whomever they had slated and are likely to get a #3, #5 or late #4 with that late 1st round pick of the Colts.

The mutualness of the team's conference and division is attractive, since neither are common opponents in this regard.

[bgforever]

I just checked out their website and it took 10 combinations of secondary changes for them to get through 16 games! Mostly due to injuries to average backs, and Jason David was a rookie at that time, while Harper was even shuttled to Safety.

Still Dungy directed a secondary that were 2nd to lead the AFC in takeaways with 12 of the 36. Unfortunately for them, it was when some games were done early by Manning's passing and didn't show up enough in BIG games.

Dungy is even quoted as saying better play has got to come from somewhere, in spite of the addition of David, and those 2nd AFC leading takeaways. You can't keep turning over the roster at CB and get to the big dance, unless you've played some together (see NE). Ironically, NE holds their trump card and its at corner that they have been exploited the most, still.

I think the Colts want Rolle or Pac-Man.

They also have "4" picks combined in rounds 4 and 5. They can't swell their roster too much because of the cap.

[Meatsnack]

I think the only way we do business with Pittsburg or New England is to have already traded down once. That is the only way their low 2nd and third round picks equate to the right value to make the trade worthwhile. Having said that, I am kind of rooting for this scenario in the absence of MW.

There is a tremendous amount of value in the lower third of the first through the second round in this draft. If we could somehow turn #9 into a low first and two seconds, get an additional third for 50/50, we could walk away with an incredibly productive draft this year.

I also believe the if MW or Braylon is there at #9 we will pick them without hesitation. I could live without Edwards, but what the heck. I would hope that we woudl listen very carefully to offers on Rolle or Jones.

We don't have a burning need at the corner and I don't see why there aren't three or four corners who have a chance to be just as good in this draft. It's one of the rare ones that is deep at cb so you don't need to have a top 10 pick to be guaranteed a shot a player with a chance to be good.

[silverspring]

I think the only way we do business with Pittsburg or New England is to have already traded down once. That is the only way their low 2nd and third round picks equate to the right value to make the trade worthwhile. Having said that, I am kind of rooting for this scenario in the absence of MW.

There is a tremendous amount of value in the lower third of the first through the second round in this draft. If we could somehow turn #9 into a low first and two seconds, get an additional third for 50/50, we could walk away with an incredibly productive draft this year.

I also believe the if MW or Braylon is there at #9 we will pick them without hesitation. I could live without Edwards, but what the heck. I would hope that we woudl listen very carefully to offers on Rolle or Jones.

We don't have a burning need at the corner and I don't see why there aren't three or four corners who have a chance to be just as good in this draft. It's one of the rare ones that is deep at cb so you don't need to have a top 10 pick to be guaranteed a shot a player with a chance to be good.


my sentiments exactly.

[BurgundyNGold]

CNYSkinsfan,

I see where you skipped the Colts, I believe they're between 26-32.

This is a likely trade partner, granted they have a #1 pick at that spot. They are in need of a pass defender, even though they drafted Jason David last year. With a yr under his belt, he should be better. Jefferson was ok as depth. However, Nick Harper is a thorn to them, and they make no attempt to resign him. This is bad for Harper and good for the Colts.

They can trade up with Washington for their#9 pick, give the money that Harper wanted to get a far better CB, and save from the signing of Edgerrin James as a franchised player that apparently doesn't look like he'll be able to be traded, unless Minnesota or JAX, makes a move.

Washington could then pick whomever they had slated and are likely to get a #3, #5 or late #4 with that late 1st round pick of the Colts.

The mutualness of the team's conference and division is attractive, since neither are common opponents in this regard.
According to the Draft Pick Value Chart (http://www.thehuddlereport.com/NickelPackage/tradevaluechart.htm) the Colts would have to give up their whole draft to move up from 29 to 9:

Redskins pick chart value:
------------------------------
1(9) 1350

Colts entire draft chart value
------------------------------
1(29) 640
2(60) 300
3(92) 132
4(129) 43
4(135) 38
5(165) 25
5(173) 22
6(202) 10
7(243) 1
---------
1211

I'd take that!!!

[cnhnyy]

So, they have to throw a No.3 from next year to make it even. Unfortuantely, Mike Dikta is not their GM :) .

I am all for trading down if MW is gone, but I do not want to trade down to the bottom of first round only to see all the good ones are gone before us.

[CNYSkinFan]

They also have "4" picks combined in rounds 4 and 5. They can't swell their roster too much because of the cap.

Which is why I left them out of the trade scenarios. because of the rule of 51 a top ten draft choice will hurt the cap more then the minimum salaries 4th and 5th rounders will sign.

Unless Edge is traded before the draft I don't see the colts trading up. And I am not so sure they want to either. They seem resigned to just outscore evey one.

ALso dropping from 9 to 29 the Redskins would have to get more then a few 4ths and 5ths. Their 2nd is too low to be worth the drop as well.

But you may be right.

[CNYSkinFan]

I think the only way we do business with Pittsburg or New England is to have already traded down once. That is the only way their low 2nd and third round picks equate to the right value to make the trade worthwhile. Having said that, I am kind of rooting for this scenario in the absence of MW.

There is a tremendous amount of value in the lower third of the first through the second round in this draft. If we could somehow turn #9 into a low first and two seconds, get an additional third for 50/50, we could walk away with an incredibly productive draft this year.

I also believe the if MW or Braylon is there at #9 we will pick them without hesitation. I could live without Edwards, but what the heck. I would hope that we woudl listen very carefully to offers on Rolle or Jones.

We don't have a burning need at the corner and I don't see why there aren't three or four corners who have a chance to be just as good in this draft. It's one of the rare ones that is deep at cb so you don't need to have a top 10 pick to be guaranteed a shot a player with a chance to be good.

I agree...but future picks could get involved as well. You never know that is why i threw them in. They have needs at Wr and CB and the desire to upgrade at both. You never know.

[GoDannyBoy]

Lets hope the FO has this all figured out.

This also assumes that the teams wanting these players don't trade up to 6,7 or 8 and grab them to keep us from picking them.