Completely Useless Statistics, or maybe not.

[bwparker]

OLD THREAD - GO TO END TO SEE NEW POST

I was looking at the team stats for this past game, trying to make myself feel as good as possible about the team and I came up with this.

We are ranked second to only Buffalo in Yards Gained vs. Yards allowed ratio, nearly doubling our opponents net yardage.

Team - OFF/DEF = RAT
Redskins - 323/166 = 1.94
Buffalo - 316/120 = 2.63

And we're we're ranked third in the difference between the yards gained and yards allowed category, behind Buffalo(again) and St. Louis.

Team - OFF-DED = YRD
Redskins - 323-166 = 157
St. Louis - 405-217 = 188
Buffalo - 316-120 = 196


I know its only one game, so these stats are likely to be in serious flux for all the teams for the next few weeks. However, this kind of stat is very encouraging. It means we are moving the ball and our opponent is not, by a wide margin.
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Alot of people have pointed out that this weeks game looked alot like last year. But last year we out paced our opponents by a meager 116 yards. Thats 7.25 yards per game. That sort of ratio should yield an 8-8 season, but if you remember we had TO returns for TDs in two games that we lost by a TD or less(NYG(1st) and Baltimore)...which easily explains a 6-10 season. Overall we ranked 14th in this category, middle of the pack.

The top ranked teams in yardage difference category last year were:

1.Denver*
2.Pittsburg*
3.Green Bay*
4.New England*
5.Kansas City
6.NY Jets*
7.Indy*
8.St. Louis*
9.Philly*
10.Buffalo
* - denotes a playoff team.

You will note that 8 of the top ten teams in this category went to the playoffs last year. Including both teams that went to the Superbowl. Of the remaining 4 playoff teams, they were not far off behind:

Minnesota - 11th
San Diego - 13th
Seattle - 15th
Atlanta - 17th

Only Atlanta finished in the bottom half of the league, but just barely. And I don't thinks it unfounded to say that with Mike Vick at the helm they are bound to be an unorthidox team.

If you look at the yardage ratio category. The the playoff teams are ranked even slightly higher. With Atlanta, Still the worst, ranking 16th. The only NON-playoff teams in the top half of the league were: Dallas, Buffalo, Kansas City and Washington.
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What this says to me is that if we can maintain this level of difference, or even close to it, for most of the year we will have a VERY GOOD statistical chance of making the playoffs. If we continue to get to the redzone and continue to keep opponents out of it, we are BOUND to score more points. We can't go the whole year without a TD.

I also like this stat because it is blind to the type of team you have(Kansas City and Pittsburg both ranked highly despite one being all offense and one being the top defense). It is the result of balance between offense and defense. And it looks good for us.
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If you factor in turnovers this stat is even more telling.
The four playoffs teams NOT in the top ten all had positive turnover ratios(boosting them to playoff status).
Kansas City had a negative turnover ratio, which explains the playoff absence.

Which leave the Bills as the lone anamoly. With a big offense/defensive yardage gap and positive turnover ratio, you'd expect them to be in the playoffs easily. But then you remember they had TWO other playoff teams in their division, including the Superbowl Champion Patriots.

I'll be watching this combo of stats all year, to see how good of a predictor it REALLY is. I'm also going to keep my eye on Buffalo, they very well may be a SB contender this year if Losman can adequately replace Bledsoe.

[inevitable]

Very interesting statistics, great info.

[smoak]

So bottom line we need to better our turnover ratio and score TDs in the red zone? Got it.

[IMALILTEAPOT]

hmmm, that actually makes me feel a little better

[bgforever]

I peeked it too and the interesting thing that jumped out at me was it was pretty much the same group of teams showing up in the categories where they needed to be effective from last year.

We were right aroung 3-4 constantly, so was Pittsburgh, NE, but a newcomer was Indy. That is to be eyed by us only if we got to the SB.
right now the sts I love rushing under 50 yds and passing under150 I believe.
Also there was NO sustained scoring from Chicago. just a short run from our gift wrapped turnover. In fact Chicago got squeezed each series, and even with help from the officials, still got squeezed.

[The Skinsinator]

Great info BW. That is very encouraging. However, I think after week 4 all these stats will prove more useful, but that is an excellent stat. I'm tired of everyone saying,"Oh, they beat the bears by 2 with a rookie starting." The Bears aren't a bad team, and they had a pretty good gameplan against us. Not great, but not bad. I was just happy to win.

[dj_stouty]

I was looking at the team stats for this past game, trying to make myself feel as good as possible about the team and I came up with this.

We are ranked second to only Buffalo in Yards Gained vs. Yards allowed ratio, nearly doubling our opponents net yardage.

Team - OFF/DEF = RAT
Redskins - 323/166 = 1.94
Buffalo - 316/120 = 2.63

And we're we're ranked third in the difference between the yards gained and yards allowed category, behind Buffalo(again) and St. Louis.

Team - OFF-DED = YRD
Redskins - 323-166 = 157
St. Louis - 405-217 = 188
Buffalo - 316-120 = 196


I know its only one game, so these stats are likely to be in serious flux for all the teams for the next few weeks. However, this kind of stat is very encouraging. It means we are moving the ball and our opponent is not, by a wide margin.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Alot of people have pointed out that this weeks game looked alot like last year. But last year we out paced our opponents by a meager 116 yards. Thats 7.25 yards per game. That sort of ratio should yield an 8-8 season, but if you remember we had TO returns for TDs in two games that we lost by a TD or less(NYG(1st) and Baltimore)...which easily explains a 6-10 season. Overall we ranked 14th in this category, middle of the pack.

The top ranked teams in yardage difference category last year were:

1.Denver*
2.Pittsburg*
3.Green Bay*
4.New England*
5.Kansas City
6.NY Jets*
7.Indy*
8.St. Louis*
9.Philly*
10.Buffalo
* - denotes a playoff team.

You will note that 8 of the top ten teams in this category went to the playoffs last year. Including both teams that went to the Superbowl. Of the remaining 4 playoff teams, they were not far off behind:

Minnesota - 11th
San Diego - 13th
Seattle - 15th
Atlanta - 17th

Only Atlanta finished in the bottom half of the league, but just barely. And I don't thinks it unfounded to say that with Mike Vick at the helm they are bound to be an unorthidox team.

If you look at the yardage ratio category. The the playoff teams are ranked even slightly higher. With Atlanta, Still the worst, ranking 16th. The only NON-playoff teams in the top half of the league were: Dallas, Buffalo, Kansas City and Washington.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
What this says to me is that if we can maintain this level of difference, or even close to it, for most of the year we will have a VERY GOOD statistical chance of making the playoffs. If we continue to get to the redzone and continue to keep opponents out of it, we are BOUND to score more points. We can't go the whole year without a TD.

I also like this stat because it is blind to the type of team you have(Kansas City and Pittsburg both ranked highly despite one being all offense and one being the top defense). It is the result of balance between offense and defense. And it looks good for us.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
If you factor in turnovers this stat is even more telling.
The four playoffs teams NOT in the top ten all had positive turnover ratios(boosting them to playoff status).
Kansas City had a negative turnover ratio, which explains the playoff absence.

Which leave the Bills as the lone anamoly. With a big offense/defensive yardage gap and positive turnover ratio, you'd expect them to be in the playoffs easily. But then you remember they had TWO other playoff teams in their division, including the Superbowl Champion Patriots.

I'll be watching this combo of stats all year, to see how good of a predictor it REALLY is. I'm also going to keep my eye on Buffalo, they very well may be a SB contender this year if Losman can adequately replace Bledsoe.

Great stats, BwParker! I'm posting an article tomorrow that dives into some more interesting stats on the Skins' win last Sunday.

[danny's stogie]

Well the Bills played a total dog in the Texans who I'm sure will end up being worse than the Bears. They do have all the pieces in place besides Losman, but he doesn't look very good so far, typical rookie the game moves too fast for the QB problems. I don't think they can make the playoffs right now, because of him.

[ryflan47]

Great find bw :awesomewo

[The Skinsinator]

They do have all the pieces in place besides Losman
Hmmmm.... Sound all too familiar. At least, we have Brunnel or Campbell. Not bad 2nd and 3rd options, despite the Brunnel doubts.

[openallnight]

BWP, nice work with the stats :)

Although, yardage diff is a nice staightforward yard stick it omits way too many variables to determine winners/losers.
The best methodology I've seen thus far is found at http://www.footballoutsiders.com/
They rank all the teams based upon their DVOA value. Check out their methodology it's really some interesting stuff.
Based upon their week 1 values they have Dallas ranked 14 and Redskins ranked 16.

[bwparker]

BWP, nice work with the stats :)

Although, yardage diff is a nice staightforward yard stick it omits way too many variables to determine winners/losers.
The best methodology I've seen thus far is found at http://www.footballoutsiders.com/
They rank all the teams based upon their DVOA value. Check out their methodology it's really some interesting stuff.
Based upon their week 1 values they have Dallas ranked 14 and Redskins ranked 16.
Wow...thats impressive

[Vonslydog]

All those yards mean exactly squat if we can't start getting into the endzone.

[bwparker]

All those yards mean exactly squat if we can't start getting into the endzone.
You missed the point. The point is that team who consistantly out gain their opponents, without turnovers, win football games. Yes, in the end points are all that matter, but this could be a good tool for determining who's going to score those points and win. We may have won by a small margin, but we dominated that team which is a better indicator for how we'll do in the next game...IMO

[PA Skins Girl]

Very good analysis of the stats.

[Brokenstriker]

So bottom line we need to better our turnover ratio and score TDs in the red zone? Got it.

how does he do it?! :rolleyes:

[BigPlayJay]

Nice topic. Anything besides QB is a nice topic right now! Seriously though this is a deep look, pretty cool.

[BandWagon]

Great research and analysis. The one thing that keeps impressing me was no "3 and outs". How many times did THAT happen last year?!

[BigPlayJay]

Great research and analysis. The one thing that keeps impressing me was no "3 and outs". How many times did THAT happen last year?!
Good point. I couldn't believe how many times they converted on third down. That helps me belive the sitting on the ball theory that Bugel was telling after the game.

[GibbsFan]

We dominated the Bears. Turnovers killed us, IMO if they were eliminated we would have scored at least 10 more points. Bang on the door long enough and you're gonna knock it down.

[bwparker]

Great research and analysis. The one thing that keeps impressing me was no "3 and outs". How many times did THAT happen last year?!
also...we threw the ball on EVERY third down until late into the fourth quarter...which I thought was strange. That includes a couple of 3rd and 2 situations, we threw it EVERY time.

[bwparker]

For anyone who cares, even though we were outgained just barely in this game we still are sitting pretty near the top of the league in this stat:


Team Offense Defense Difference Diff Ratio
Philadelphia 442 230 212 1.92173913043478
Tampa Bay 332 198 134 1.67676767676768
Pittsburgh 406 262 144 1.54961832061069
Cincinnati 462 338 124 1.36686390532544
Washington 334 258 76 1.29457364341085


Seatlle has a bigger difference in yardage(83) but a worse ratio(1.28).

That puts us in pretty good company. It looks especially good when you look at the teams this group has played. From top ranked down: San Fran, Buffalo, Houstan, Vikings. Buffalo is the only one of those teams that is not in total dissary - and they have a rookie QB. Both the teams we've beat won their other games - none of the other teams can say that. And the Bears put a womping on Detroit.


I am very worried about turnovers though. We are now at (-3), that has to stop if we want to continue winning.

[bwparker]

Sorry everybody for digging up an older thread...but I'd kinda stopped looking deeply at this stat because...well...it got boring. BUT! the good news is I looked at it again and WASHINGTON is tops. Thats right, number one.

Team............. |Offense..|Defense..|Difference|Diff Ratio
1.Washington..... |387.2.....|266........|121.2....|1.455639098
2.Tampa Bay...... |322.7.....|233.3.....|89.4......|1.3831976
3.Seattle........... |390.3.....|298.7.....|91.6......|1.306662203
4.Indianapolis..... |353.7.....|277.9.....|75.8......|1.272759986
5.Dallas............. |359.1.....|292.6.....|66.5......|1.227272727

Notices that we have out gained our opponents by more thant 100 yards(only team to do so), the closest team is Tampa and they are 30 yards behind us. Thats 25% better movement difference than the next best team.

Notice: Four of these teams are in the NFC. How can this be, the AFC is SOooo much stronger, right? By my quick count(read: possible errors) the NFC is winning the conference battle this year 17-14.

Notce 2: We've beaten two of these top five teams already.

Notice 3: This illustrates one of the reasons why I think we are the best team in the division right now. Balance. Philly won't run, Giants suck on defense. Dallas keeps hurting themselves worse than we do, but we are the only team that Runs, Passes and Plays D. Now Philly CAN run the ball, and when the start to do it again it will be a hard fought battle for the top of the division; Dallas is dangerous too, but I just don't think they are as good as we are.

Notice 4: Turnovers are killing us. Better T/O ratio and we are undefeated.

[gibbs4pres]

Nice Stats BW. The only problem I see is that they are right after the 49ers game. I think they are a bit skewed IMO. Yes, I think we are the most well rounded team in the East, but we are just getting on a roll. The game against the Bears was too close if you ask me. The game against Dallas was a loss other than the last 5 mins., which will be in my memory forever as one of the best comebacks ever by the Skins. So my point is, that we shouldn't jump the gun. This game and the next against Philly should give us a better idea on how good we really are. I'm interested to see how we stack up after these next games. Right now I'm happy knowing Gibbs' plan is working. We seem to get better each week, and after the loss in Denver, we showed alot of heart in KC. :typeR2:

[GWBlitzST]

Notice 4: Turnovers are killing us. Better T/O ratio and we are undefeated.
Yeah one reason we have so many yards on offense is because the field is rarely shortened for us. But I feel like we are going to cut down on the turnovers, and create more. I like where this train is going.

[Discalced]

Nice Stats BW. The only problem I see is that they are right after the 49ers game. I think they are a bit skewed IMO.

True, but every team plays teams like the Niners. Arizona, Houston, etc. all allow for big games.

[BIGSEF3]

what could screw us this year is the fact that the NFC-East and NFC-South are both rediculously strong. There are 7 teams that could easily finish 10-6 or better, but 3 of them will not make the playoffs. The teams I mention are the entire NFC-East, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Atlanta.

I feel pretty certain that atleast one wild-card will go to an NFC-south team. That means out of the 3 teams in the NFC with the same record as us, somebody is going to get left out. I don't want it to be us. Statistics from last year are meaningless. I don't like our chances of getting a wild-card berth. We can't count on that. We MUST win our division. Otherwise we could very well end up being the best NFL team to not make the playoffs.

[GibbsRules!]

what could screw us this year is the fact that the NFC-East and NFC-South are both rediculously strong. There are 7 teams that could easily finish 10-6 or better, but 3 of them will not make the playoffs. The teams I mention are the entire NFC-East, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Atlanta.

I feel pretty certain that atleast one wild-card will go to an NFC-south team. That means out of the 3 teams in the NFC with the same record as us, somebody is going to get left out. I don't want it to be us. Statistics from last year are meaningless. I don't like our chances of getting a wild-card berth. We can't count on that. We MUST win our division. Otherwise we could very well end up being the best NFL team to not make the playoffs.

That's so far off. All we have to do is take care of our own destiny. We are 4-0 in the Conference right now and that's all that matters. The East and South will start playing more division games and things will start to shake out. The Tampa game could come up as a tiebreaker for us. I'd love to get that one.

[smoak]

Yeah, if we get left out it is because we didn't get the job done. Period. No excuses.

[Discalced]

My gut tells me that Tampa Bay is going to wilt. Strong start, weak finish. My gut has been wrong before.

[The Skinsinator]

My gut tells me that Tampa Bay is going to wilt. Strong start, weak finish. My gut has been wrong before.
It depends on how Rattay/Simms do. They will be ok, but I don't think they can sustain Griese's success. Cadillac is everything to their offense. The d is very strong.

[PA Skins Girl]

what could screw us this year is the fact that the NFC-East and NFC-South are both rediculously strong. There are 7 teams that could easily finish 10-6 or better, but 3 of them will not make the playoffs. The teams I mention are the entire NFC-East, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Atlanta.

I feel pretty certain that atleast one wild-card will go to an NFC-south team. That means out of the 3 teams in the NFC with the same record as us, somebody is going to get left out. I don't want it to be us. Statistics from last year are meaningless. I don't like our chances of getting a wild-card berth. We can't count on that. We MUST win our division. Otherwise we could very well end up being the best NFL team to not make the playoffs.That's why our goal needs to be to win the division. That's why the next two games are so important. If we win the next two, we will be sitting pretty.

[BIGSEF3]

That's why our goal needs to be to win the division. That's why the next two games are so important. If we win the next two, we will be sitting pretty.

Absolutely agree. If the season ended right now, I beleive with our divisonal and NFC wins would be the tiebreakers that would allow us win the division. We have the easily beatable Giants this week. (this game is goign to be similar to the 49ers game in my mind. Thier defense is just as horrid as SF's. We will score atleast 35 and there is no way our D gives up that much.) Philly is on its last leg in my opinion, with their lack of a running game and McNabbs healthy deteriorating more than most people recognize. We play them on primetime at HOME next week.

If we can pull out the next 2 weeks with wins, we will be 6-2 and 3-0 in the division and 6-0 in the NFC. That, in combination with a few "easy" games on the schedule could have us at 9-4 going in to those tough final 3 weeks. 2 of those games would be home games against rivals we had already beaten on their turf. So that would put us at possibly 11-4 excluding the 2nd Philly game.

What am i getting at? Here's the bottom line. If we can pull out a win in the next 2 weeks, we will finish the season 11-5 or better. You can quote me on that too.

[GibbsRules!]

We have the easily beatable Giants this week. (this game is goign to be similar to the 49ers game in my mind. Thier defense is just as horrid as SF's. We will score atleast 35 and there is no way our D gives up that much.)


There's no way you can compare the Giants to the Niners...not even in the same class.

To put things in perspective - The Giants beat Denver, we didn't. I'd rather look at common opponents first. That's a better barometer IMO. This game is no doubt a winnable game, but it will be much tougher than last week.

[GibbsFan]

No doubt this is a winnable game, but don't get too carried away by last weeks 52 points. We might hang 35 on the Gnats, but I'd rather not get too bodacious on how much we score, just sustain all drives and control the ball then we will be fine.

[GibbsRules!]

Here's one for this week:

Of Giants head coach Tom Coughlin's 81 career NFL wins (regular season and playoffs), Mark Brunell was the starting quarterback in 67 of those games.

[redwolf1218]

my favorite is we are #2 in overall offense and #4 in overall defense. no one would have believed it.

[GibbsRules!]

my favorite is we are #2 in overall offense and #4 in overall defense. no one would have believed it.
Exactly...This weeks candidate for the "Who'd have thunk it?" award.

[GibbsRules!]

Betting stats:

Washington at New York Giants, 1:00 EST
Washington: 10-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
NY Giants: 6-18 ATS after the first month of the season

NICE!!!

[steveo395]

My gut tells me that Tampa Bay is going to wilt. Strong start, weak finish. My gut has been wrong before.
well they did just lose their starting qb

[PA Skins Girl]

Stat for Philly game:

#1 rated passing offense (Philly) vs. #1 rated defense against the pass (Washington).

[Biggie]

Stat for Philly game:

#1 rated passing offense (Philly) vs. #1 rated defense against the pass (Washington).

Another stat:

Washington run defense -


Tied for 26th in the league in rushing yards per attempt average.
23rd in the league in rushing yards allowed.
Tied for 21st in the league in runs of 20+ yards allowed (6).
25th in the league in rushing yards/game allowed. Philadelphia run offense -

Last in the league in rushing yards.
Last in the league in rushing attempts.
26th in the league in yards per carry.
Tied for 28th in the league in rushing touchdowns (2). I'm so disappointed in our run defense that, even with these stats, I think Philly could run for a hundred yards on us.

[vabeach_skinsfan]

I hope they find a solution to our run defense. I don't know if its the schemtaic design or the lack of execution!!

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