How big a difference does being 1 or 2 seed make?

[Dexter72]

I keep hearing ALL of the statistics about 1 and 2 seeds rolling over 3-6 seeds in the divisional round...but none of the statistics I've seen take into account when the 3-6 seed had played the 1 or 2 seed during the regular season...So here it is:

Looking at the last 8 years, on average, 3-6 seeds have almost EXACTLY the same results as the previous time they played the 1 or 2 seed. It averages out to less than half a point difference (see below) between the regular season matchup and the playoff game.

Of the 4 wildcards who had beaten the higher seed at least once during the season, the team that won the previous meeting won 3 times, and the wildcard team won twice (2000 Ravens, 97 Chiefs) and lost twice (01 Ravens, 98 49ers)...Based on past games, being home vs. road wasn't a factor in any except the 98 Atl-SF games.

Regular season games listed first, followed by the playoff game -- higher seed was @home, unless marked otherwise:

2004
Philly (1 seed)
Phi 27 - Min 16
Phi 27 - Min 14
+2

Atl
Atl 47 - STL 17
Atl 34 - STL 17
-13

Pit
Pit 17 - NYJ 6
Pit 20 - NYJ 17 (OT)
-8

NE
NE 27 - Ind 24
NE 20 - Ind 3
+14

2003
Phi
Phi 17 - GB 14 (@GB)
Phi 20 - GB 17
0

NE
NE 38 - Tenn 30
NE 17 - Tenn 14
-5

2002
Tenn
Tenn 31 - Pitt 23
Tenn 34 - Pitt 31
-5

Oak
Oak 26 - NYJ 20
Oak 30 - NYJ 10
+14

2001
Pit
Bal 13 - Pitt 10
Pitt 26 - Bal 21 (@Bal)
Pitt 27 - Bal 10
+15

2000
Tenn
Tenn 14 - Bal 6 (@Bmore)
Bal 24 - Tenn 23
Bal 24 - Tenn 10
-18

NYG
NYG 33 - Phi 18 (@Phi)
NYG 24 - Phi 7
NYG 20 - Phi 10
-6

1998
Atl
SF 31 - Atl 20 (@SF)
Atl 31 - SF 19
Atl 20 - SF 18
+1

1997
GB
GB 21 - TB 17
GB 17 - TB 6 (@TB)
GB 21 - TB 7
+6

SF
SF 28 - Min 17
SF 38 - Min 22
+5

Pit
Pit 24 - NE 21 (@NE)
Pit 7 - NE 6
-2

KC
Den 19 - KC 3 (@Den)
KC 24 - Den 22
Den 14 - KC 10
+3

[BurgundyNGold]

Excellent work! Man, I hope the trend continues.

[smoot]

Excellent work! Man, I hope the trend continues.
what trend is that, from what i see, the #1 seed has won nearly every time

[BurgundyNGold]

what trend is that, from what i see, the #1 seed has won nearly every time
The trend that the team who came out on top in the regular season is the one that came out on top in the playoffs. ;)

[IowaSkinsFan]

I maintain that this year the NFC is more open than any other year in recent history and that there is really very little difference between the 1 seed and the 6 seed.

I think Saturday will bear that out.

[HAWGZHEAD]

I think Saturday will bear that out.So I guess you like the Panthers to win.

[cal_junior]

I maintain that this year the NFC is more open than any other year in recent history and that there is really very little difference between the 1 seed and the 6 seed.

I think Saturday will bear that out.

I agree with that 100 percent. I would be no more surprised if any of the four remaining teams in the NFC ends up in the SB.

[HAWGZHEAD]

I agree with that 100 percent. I would be no more surprised if any of the four remaining teams in the NFC ends up in the SB.I would be surprised to see the bears in there. Their lack of offensive prowess I don't think can carry them all the way. Some people say that about us but I believe that our O is far better than Chicago.

[vbskins]

The trend that the team who came out on top in the regular season is the one that came out on top in the playoffs. ;)


I know you guys are crunching numbers to keep you ffrom exploding with anticipation right now, but that is a bunch of nonsense.

All that says to me is that the better team won every game. I think we all should believe we have the better team.

more importantly i hope the skins believe they are the better team and play that way.

I think the one thing we have going for us is even if we get down we have learned we can hang in every game and give our team a shot to win. I f the Hawks get down, they have not really been tested too much this year and they may wilt if we hang around????

[Dexter72]

All that says to me is that the better team won every game.

It says two things: 1) the better team won, AND 2) Having the bye week off isn't usually a factor that changes the outcome. Most of the "expert" predictions I've seen say the Redskins will lose because they don't have the benefit of a week off like Seattle and they don't have enough left in the tank...Based on looking at past games that were rematches, the games usually go very much like the regular season games went -- so maybe the bye week isn't the big advantage that its made out to be, and we should expect the Bears, Redskins, Broncos, and Colts to win.