AL East at the break

[RedskinsDave]

Well we're here already kids. It's the All-Star break, a time where the best players are probably not starting because fans are morons or the manager is. Anyways, here's my short assessment of things so far.

AL East: I think it's more or less played out the way I would have thought to this point even though there have been some injuries that have changed things. The Sox are holding steady and playing well but have been on the good end of the injury stick. Papelbon has been nothing short of a savior, yesterday's game aside. Of course he does have as many blown saves as Rivera but ESPN will make sure to ignore that. Schilling has been Schilling. Beckett may be the worst 11 game winner at the break ever but heck a win is a win. Lester looks like he may be the kid to hold things together. Their offense has been as expected.

The Yanks have held it together despite their many injuries. Some, like Crystal Pavano, were to be expected. Matsui was a big one and kudos go out to Melky for the job he has done out on left. Sheff was a loss but not as big as Godzilla to me. The starting rotation has held the season together even when Torre does all he can to snap a loss from the jaws of victory with his bullpen decisions. If the Yanks get healthy I expect them to hold steady and be there at the end. I don't think anyone thinks they won't make a move for an OF and maybe a starter too. Boston may be in the market for both as well.

Toronto has been staying tight and have the luxury of flying under the radar. Wells is a beast and Halladay is the first to 12 wins. One of these days you will hear about this team. Alex Rios ain't too shabby either. Their problem is that Halladay is the only guy over .500 with more than 6 wins. They really need Burnett to stay healthy and I don't see it.

The Orioles are the Orioles. Like I said at the start, they should finish under .500 and over 20 games back. Nine straight losing seasons with no one to blame but the troll owner. They made some nice moves, mainly getting Hernandez to play backstop. You take away he and Tejada and the next best RBI guy is Mora at 44. That won't cut it. Their bullpen has been predictably bad even though Ray has done a decent job closing games, 22 of 23. Bedard is in a groove now but no one else seems to be able to come out and pitch with any consistency. Chen is showing that last year was a fluke. Benson may finish above .500 and that makes trading Julio for him and nice move.

The D-Rays....oh the D-Rays. They really honestly have some serious talent down there. Crawford, Baldelli and Lugo could play on almost any team. Scott Kazmir is a beast and might have 14 wins on a good team by now. The Mets wish they kept this kid. If they can keep scrapping out wins here and there, they could challenge the O's for 4th place.

[danny's stogie]

Without reading this, Yanks are cooked.

[RedskinsDave]

Without reading this, Yanks are cooked.

Excellent assessment. You should work for ESPN.

[SpicyMcHaggis]

Excellent assessment. You should work for ESPN.
That may have been too in-depth for ESPN...

[RedskinsDave]

That may have been too in-depth for ESPN...

Good point, and no mention of how great the Red Sox are either.

[danny's stogie]

Excellent assessment. You should work for ESPN.

I was going to make a Peter Gammons joke, but it would have been in poor taste.

[smoak]

While I love your write-up Dave, I think it illustrates why I despise the current MLB. The Sox and Yankees are the "haves" (and "can get mores"). Any really good players on the D-Rays can be expected to wear new jerseys once they approach a contract year. Even though the occasional small market team can make noise, the current system is horrendous and degrades the product on the field.

The casual fan can look forward to hopefully seeing another classic Yanks/Sox playoff series this year, but I c an't get excited about baseball.

Care to comment/speculate on who the Yankees/Sox may target and what they have to offer? I've heard the Yankee cupboard is bare in terms of young prospects.

[RedskinsDave]

While I love your write-up Dave, I think it illustrates why I despise the current MLB. The Sox and Yankees are the "haves" (and "can get mores"). Any really good players on the D-Rays can be expected to wear new jerseys once they approach a contract year. Even though the occasional small market team can make noise, the current system is horrendous and degrades the product on the field.

The casual fan can look forward to hopefully seeing another classic Yanks/Sox playoff series this year, but I c an't get excited about baseball.

Care to comment/speculate on who the Yankees/Sox may target and what they have to offer? I've heard the Yankee cupboard is bare in terms of young prospects.

Yeah the Yankee cupboard has been bare for a long time. Of course those bare cupboards have produced Cano, Wang, Cabrera, et al over the last two years. The best kid is pitcher Phillip Hughes but he has been said to be untouchable.

I think both the Yanks and Sox will be after Abreu and maybe Soriano (who I do not want on the Yanks again). The Yanks may be after Aubrey Huff too. Not too sure who could be on the market pitching-wise but no one really impresses me.

Sure the Yanks and Sox have tons of cash but Tampa is the only team in the division who cannot compete with their payroll. Blame baseball for putting a team there as much as the current system. The smaller market teams can compete if they want to. Some prefer to take their welfare and run.

[danny's stogie]

While I love your write-up Dave, I think it illustrates why I despise the current MLB. The Sox and Yankees are the "haves" (and "can get mores"). Any really good players on the D-Rays can be expected to wear new jerseys once they approach a contract year. Even though the occasional small market team can make noise, the current system is horrendous and degrades the product on the field.

The casual fan can look forward to hopefully seeing another classic Yanks/Sox playoff series this year, but I c an't get excited about baseball.

Care to comment/speculate on who the Yankees/Sox may target and what they have to offer? I've heard the Yankee cupboard is bare in terms of young prospects.

I hate to start up this argument again -- I can pull out my ten page argument with Hanburgerbum -- but once again, the majority of teams in MLB can operate within a range of roughly 70-100 million dollars in payroll. True, there are a few outliers like the Sox and Yanks on the high end of the spectrum and the Royals and Marlins on the low end, but generally the deciding factor in what teams are successful is an owner's committment to winning not this so-called small/large market divide. Angelos for example hides behind a guise of "small market" using that phrase to justify his penny-pinching ways, when in fact the Orioles have turned more in raw profit than any other team in baseball over the past several years. Without having Forbes' numbers in front of me I believe that the Orioles could operate comfortably with a payroll over 100 million, but Angelos simply chooses not to spend it. On the other hand, Steinbrenner lost something like 40 million dollars last year because his obsession with winning caused him to overspend.

[RedskinsDave]

I hate to start up this argument again -- I can pull out my ten page argument with Hanburgerbum -- but once again, the majority of teams in MLB can operate within a range of roughly 70-100 million dollars in payroll. True, there are a few outliers like the Sox and Yanks on the high end of the spectrum and the Royals and Marlins on the low end, but generally the deciding factor in what teams are successful is an owner's committment to winning not this so-called small/large market divide. Angelos for example hides behind a guise of "small market" using that phrase to justify his penny-pinching ways, when in fact the Orioles have turned more in raw profit than any other team in baseball over the past several years. Without having Forbes' numbers in front of me I believe that the Orioles could operate comfortably with a payroll over 100 million, but Angelos simply chooses not to spend it. On the other hand, Steinbrenner lost something like 40 million dollars last year because his obsession with winning caused him to overspend.

Well said. I can easily expand on this but we can move it to another thread if people want to discuss it.

[danny's stogie]

I think both the Yanks and Sox will be after Abreu and maybe Soriano (who I do not want on the Yanks again). The Yanks may be after Aubrey Huff too. Not too sure who could be on the market pitching-wise but no one really impresses me.


Schmidt is the only name that stands out. There might be some second and third tier closers/setup men available as well.

[danny's stogie]

Well said. I can easily expand on this but we can move it to another thread if people want to discuss it.

I discussed it ad nauseum in another thread and have no desire to start again. To sum up: certain owners use the words "small market" to justify being cheap. It happens in the NFL too.

[akhhorus]

Yanks: Torre's done an amazing job(probably his best managing job ever) keeping the Yanks in it, however if they don't add pitching at starter and reliever, I don't think they have enough to catch the Sox(especially if the Nixon and a prospect for Abreu trade goes through) right now. If they deal for a decent starter(Who is not named Joel Pinero) and a good set up man(Scott Williamson?), then they have a very good chance of catching the Sox. Unless they are willing to part with Hughes(or Sheffield), then they won't get any quality players in a trade and will be forced to find the next Shawn Chacon or Aaron Small.

Sox: If they add Abreu, and the pitching stays healthy, they'll win the East. I buy that they will go after Abreu(especially if its for Nixon and a prospect), and if Clement can come back healthy they don't need another starter with Lester pitching well. They do need a left handed reliever badly.

Blue Jays: Need pitching and more consistancy.

Baltimore: They suck.

Tampa: See Baltimore. Only they have hope for the future.

[danny's stogie]

I don't know how/why you keep mentioning Sheff in trade talks. Who in their right mind -- especially considering the "seller" teams -- would want him? He's a free agent at the end of the season and it's iffy as to whether he'll even play this year.

Abreau would be a decent fit on the Sox, but they'd likely have to give up either Lester or Hansen which the Sox wouldn't do. The Phils finding a buyer for Burrell seems more likely and if they do, it won't be the Sox.

[akhhorus]

I don't know how/why you keep mentioning Sheff in trade talks. Who in their right mind -- especially considering the "seller" teams -- would want him? He's a free agent at the end of the season and it's iffy as to whether he'll even play this year.

Somebody would be stupid enough to take him on, especially if they could dump a big contract on the Yanks in return.

Abreau would be a decent fit on the Sox, but they'd likely have to give up either Lester or Hansen which the Sox wouldn't do. The Phils finding a buyer for Burrell seems more likely and if they do, it won't be the Sox.

Supposedly its Nixon and Delcarmen(or another minor leaguer) for Abreu. No way the Sox part with Lester. I could buy them dumping Hansen, but only if they got a reliever back from the Philles.

[smoak]

I discussed it ad nauseum in another thread and have no desire to start again. To sum up: certain owners use the words "small market" to justify being cheap. It happens in the NFL too.

Fair enough, and I wasn't trying to highjack the thread, but the AL East is an easy one to see the haves and have nots (also I don't recall the other thread, but I'll go look for it when I have more time). Over the course of 100 years, it wouldn't be unreasonable to think that the Devil Rays win fewer than two East titles (I'd bet zero). Maybe the league isn't at fault, but all owners should be forced to play on common ground. There is a floor in the NFL. Again, I'll look for the thread.

I am just praying some team(s) take Abreau and Burrell. Those guys (especially Burrell who is one of the worst hitters I can remember) rack up stats in meaningless situations, but never come through in the clutch.

[RedskinsDave]

Another note: If the Yanks can get Dotel in there and pitching well, that fills a huge hole.

[akhhorus]

Another note: If the Yanks can get Dotel in there and pitching well, that fills a huge hole.

That would be huge for them. Whats the latest on his arm?

[danny's stogie]

Fair enough, and I wasn't trying to highjack the thread, but the AL East is an easy one to see the haves and have nots (also I don't recall the other thread, but I'll go look for it when I have more time). Over the course of 100 years, it wouldn't be unreasonable to think that the Devil Rays win fewer than two East titles (I'd bet zero). Maybe the league isn't at fault, but all owners should be forced to play on common ground. There is a floor in the NFL. Again, I'll look for the thread.

I am just praying some team(s) take Abreau and Burrell. Those guys (especially Burrell who is one of the worst hitters I can remember) rack up stats in meaningless situations, but never come through in the clutch.

...and the AL East is the only division in baseball where people can begin to make a case for this whole large/small market divide. Neither the Orioles or Tampa are hopeless, unprofitable franchises. They just see the Sox/Yanks arms race and figure, what's the point? We're going to draw huge crowds every time one of them comes to town, we don't need to put a competitive product on the field to fill the seats 30 times a season, so why bother spend the money to compete with them in the standings? So not only does the Yanks/Sox spending help them simply by buying better players, it discourages its divisional counterparts from competing. But once again, this is all about the decisions that ownership chooses to make.

[RedskinsDave]

That would be huge for them. Whats the latest on his arm?


Octavio Dotel threw 40 fastballs yesterday but conceded he will not be ready to join the Yankees bullpen as soon as he had hoped. The Yankees feel that Dotel -- who had elbow surgery in June 2005 and had a setback last month with tendinitis -- is at least two weeks away from being able to help them.

http://www.nj.com/yankees/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-0/1152333092167830.xml&coll=1&thispage=2

[BostonSkins]

You've got to tip your cap to the Yanks being only 1.5 back after all the injuries. And it's not just because of the payroll, they're doing it with fill-ins and young guys. I still hope they fall flat on their face, but it should be an exciting 2nd half, especially that 5 game series at Fenway in August.

As for the Sox, who would have thought that Lowell would be the better player in the Bekett deal? Hopefully Beckett can keep it in the yard going forward, because he's been awful lately

[RedskinsDave]

.5 back now. It's funny how everyone talks about the Yanks rotation when they have better numbers than Boston. Beckett is the worst 11 game winner I have ever seen. It's The Mouth and no one to follow. I don't buy Lester and we saw yesterday what the other kid's will do.

[danny's stogie]

Both teams could use another starter, but the way it stacks up right now I wouldn't put my money on either of them to win a short series against the White Sox (in the playoffs, not a midsummer weekend), Tigers, or Twins.

[RedskinsDave]

Both teams could use another starter, but the way it stacks up right now I wouldn't put my money on either of them to win a short series against the White Sox (in the playoffs, not a midsummer weekend), Tigers, or Twins.

Oh I'm not buying any of those teams right now. The Pale Sox just lost 5 of 6 to the Yanks and Blow Sux. The Tigers are young and their pen is shaky and Minnesota just put two of their OF on the DL so I expect them to fade some.

[danny's stogie]

Oh I'm not buying any of those teams right now. The Pale Sox just lost 5 of 6 to the Yanks and Blow Sux. The Tigers are young and their pen is shaky and Minnesota just put two of their OF on the DL so I expect them to fade some.

Tigers, their pen is not shaky, only Jones is. Rodney and Zumaya are both fantastic. I'd expect them to try and buy a closer (Gordon maybe?) or move Zumaya to the 9th. Their young starting pitching is the question. Will Verlander and/or Bonderman and/or Minor fade in the second half? Rogers isn't a question, he always fades in the second half.

Who'd have thought that the ChiSox staff would be so bad...well, a year ago I said they were majorly overachieving. But this bad? They have been flat our horrible. If Buerhle regains some of his form then the Sox will be fine. (1) Contreras can match up with anyone, (2) Buerhle needs to be better, this is the key, (3 and 4) some combo of Garica and Vasquez can compete against any other team's 3 and 4, Garland flat out sucks. But they have a fantastic lineup; as long as their pitching isn't thoroughly outmatched they'll be able to beat anyone.

The Twins: who would want to face in succession Santana, Liriano, and a Brad Radke that seems to have regained his form?

[RedskinsDave]

That's just it. None of those teams are solid enough to be prohibitive favorites over the Yanks or Sox. Hell, the Angels keep on keepin on and I'd favor them to take the AL.

[akhhorus]

That's just it. None of those teams are solid enough to be prohibitive favorites over the Yanks or Sox. Hell, the Angels keep on keepin on and I'd favor them to take the AL.

If they add Soriano and Kendrick is as good as advertised, they are the AL favorite with that pitching. I think the East will come down to who adds the best starter. And if one of them gets Abreu, then that will help whoever gets him.

[RedskinsDave]

I do not want Abreu if it costs Melky. Abreu is the exact kind of signing that has been wrong with the current Yankees. We need more home grown guys and more Paul O'Neil's and Scott Brosius'.

I still think a healthy Dotel is more important than anything. Also, word out of the chandelier factory is that Pavano isn't too far away.

[akhhorus]

I do not want Abreu if it costs Melky. Abreu is the exact kind of signing that has been wrong with the current Yankees. We need more home grown guys and more Paul O'Neil's and Scott Brosius'.

I still think a healthy Dotel is more important than anything. Also, word out of the chandelier factory is that Pavano isn't too far away.

I agree fully, but you know the Boss and Cashman. They're looking at Sheffield leaving after this year and him and Matsui not coming back for awhile(and might not be effective when they come back). I think them and the Sox will bid on Abreu(with the first to take Burrel also as the winner). If the Sox's starters can get healthy or the Yanks add a good arm(and I don't think Pavano is the answer) like Livan Hernandez, then they will be the favorite.

[BostonSkins]

I don't see the Sox bidding on Abreu, we don't need him. Pena is back this week. The stories this week is that Wells is back soon too (hopefully) so that we won't need the Snyder/Pauley/Johnson starts anymore.

Lester would be a lot better if he could throw strikes, you won't make a living pitching out of jams every inning and never making it past the sixth since you've already thrown your 100 pitches. He'll settle down, he's young, but having said that I don't see him staying in the rotation to keep his IP down.

It's OK though, the cure-all that is the Royals are in town for three this week, if the Sox don't take at least 2 of 3 I'll reach for the panic button.