My assessment of the Skins draft

[WinnpegSkinsFan]

Normally I would have posted this in AKH's draft blog thread but that has turned in a Santana Moss debate. Believe or not I wrote this document Sunday evening after the draft, but decided to post it after I waited and thought about the draft some more. My position didn't change.
Redskins 2008 Draft Assessment & Alternate Picks
I'll give my assessment of the Redskins 2008 picks and who I would have chosen instead. Generally I gave the Redskins a C+ because I felt they didn't do enough to address the O and D lines. The Skins philosophy is clearly BPA which clashes with my needs based approach. Apparently Casserly, on NFLN, claims most teams use a BPA approach and drafts fail if teams deviate from that to reach for a need pick.

This is, of course, a preliminary assessment. Let's see how things pan out in 3 years. I welcome any comments.

R2#34 Devin Thomas WR Michigan State
Love the pick and tremendous value in the 2nd round.

R2#48 Fred Davis TE USC
This is going to be controversial but I consider this a luxury pick. Davis is probably the best TE in the draft but since we have Cooley this is overkill. I feel there are other WCO type TE's that can be drafted to fit Zorn's system later in the draft.
Alternate pick: Jason Jones DE Eastern Michigan
Similar measurables to Merling but he comes from a small school so he is more of a project. Played DT his senior season so he has some flexibility (drafted by the Titans @ #54)

R2#51 Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma
A big talented WR with questionable attitude and knees. I have warmed up a little more to the pick because it's clear Zorn needs this type of WR for his offence. I'm 50/50 whether to stay with this pick or not.
Alternate pick: Earl Bennett WR Vanderbilt
A shorter version of Kelly (drafted by Chicago @ #70)

R3#96
Chad Reinhart OT/OG Nothern Iowa
One of the draft's real sleeper picks – fills a need. I like this pick.

R4#124 Justin Tryon CB ASU
Depth at CB was a need and he fits our system so I'm fine with this pick.

R6#168 Durant Brooks P GTech
At first I was Po'ed at this pick but I quickly remembered Frost's inconsistency. Brooks was the highest rated punter in the draft so I'm fine with this pick too.

R6#180 Kareem Moore S Nicholls State
Since the Skins have only 3 safeties on the roster this was a need pick. Short but seems like a good in the box safety. However, Josh Barrett was there and it seems odd they passed him over for Moore
Alternate Pick: Josh Barrett S ASU

R6#186 Colt Brennan QB Hawaii
I'm not a fan of QBs in gimmicky offenses and weak conferences. Honestly if the Skins wanted a developmental QB take Paul Smith in the 7th. His performance in the Bowl Game against Georgia convinced me he has no place in the NFL.
Alternate pick: Tom Santi TE Virgina
Picked by the Colts later in the 6th, he has similar size to Davis and would be a decent enough target to team with Cooley in the WCO.

R7#242 Rob Jackson DE Kansas State
Well at least it was a Dlineman. If the Skins drafted Jones as I suggested earlier this pick is unnecessary.
Alternate pick: Erin Henderson OLB Maryland
I do not understand why he wasn't drafted in at least the mid rounds. The Skins need depth at OLB because, like CB, incumbents are questionable due to injury.

R7#249 Chris Horton S UCLA
Another safety? I realize depth is a little thin there but you can get S in UDFA's too.
Alternate pick: Paul Smith QB Tulsa
I realize the need for a developmental QB. Paul Smith put up similar #'s to Brennan in a 2nd rate conference too, so I don't see the big difference between the two.

I feel better about our draft since we signed Kerry Brown for Appalachian State as a UDFA. He was a mid-rounder in my opinion and someone of equal value as Rinehart. I hope these two can stick because we need young, quality backups badly.

I welcome any comments and any assessments or alternate picks of your own.

[shally]

Normally I would have posted this in AKH's draft blog thread but that has turned in a Santana Moss debate. Believe or not I wrote this document Sunday evening after the draft, but decided to post it after I waited and thought about the draft some more. My position didn't change.
Redskins 2008 Draft Assessment & Alternate Picks
I'll give my assessment of the Redskins 2008 picks and who I would have chosen instead. Generally I gave the Redskins a C+ because I felt they didn't do enough to address the O and D lines. The Skins philosophy is clearly BPA which clashes with my needs based approach. Apparently Casserly, on NFLN, claims most teams use a BPA approach and drafts fail if teams deviate from that to reach for a need pick.

This is, of course, a preliminary assessment. Let's see how things pan out in 3 years. I welcome any comments.

R2#34 Devin Thomas WR Michigan State
Love the pick and tremendous value in the 2nd round.

R2#48 Fred Davis TE USC
This is going to be controversial but I consider this a luxury pick. Davis is probably the best TE in the draft but since we have Cooley this is overkill. I feel there are other WCO type TE's that can be drafted to fit Zorn's system later in the draft.
Alternate pick: Jason Jones DE Eastern Michigan
Similar measurables to Merling but he comes from a small school so he is more of a project. Played DT his senior season so he has some flexibility (drafted by the Titans @ #54)

R2#51 Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma
A big talented WR with questionable attitude and knees. I have warmed up a little more to the pick because it's clear Zorn needs this type of WR for his offence. I'm 50/50 whether to stay with this pick or not.
Alternate pick: Earl Bennett WR Vanderbilt
A shorter version of Kelly (drafted by Chicago @ #70)

R3#96
Chad Reinhart OT/OG Nothern Iowa
One of the draft's real sleeper picks – fills a need. I like this pick.

R4#124 Justin Tryon CB ASU
Depth at CB was a need and he fits our system so I'm fine with this pick.

R6#168 Durant Brooks P GTech
At first I was Po'ed at this pick but I quickly remembered Frost's inconsistency. Brooks was the highest rated punter in the draft so I'm fine with this pick too.

R6#180 Kareem Moore S Nicholls State
Since the Skins have only 3 safeties on the roster this was a need pick. Short but seems like a good in the box safety. However, Josh Barrett was there and it seems odd they passed him over for Moore
Alternate Pick: Josh Barrett S ASU

R6#186 Colt Brennan QB Hawaii
I'm not a fan of QBs in gimmicky offenses and weak conferences. Honestly if the Skins wanted a developmental QB take Paul Smith in the 7th. His performance in the Bowl Game against Georgia convinced me he has no place in the NFL.
Alternate pick: Tom Santi TE Virgina
Picked by the Colts later in the 6th, he has similar size to Davis and would be a decent enough target to team with Cooley in the WCO.

R7#242 Rob Jackson DE Kansas State
Well at least it was a Dlineman. If the Skins drafted Jones as I suggested earlier this pick is unnecessary.
Alternate pick: Erin Henderson OLB Maryland
I do not understand why he wasn't drafted in at least the mid rounds. The Skins need depth at OLB because, like CB, incumbents are questionable due to injury.

R7#249 Chris Horton S UCLA
Another safety? I realize depth is a little thin there but you can get S in UDFA's too.
Alternate pick: Paul Smith QB Tulsa
I realize the need for a developmental QB. Paul Smith put up similar #'s to Brennan in a 2nd rate conference too, so I don't see the big difference between the two.

I feel better about our draft since we signed Kerry Brown for Appalachian State as a UDFA. He was a mid-rounder in my opinion and someone of equal value as Rinehart. I hope these two can stick because we need young, quality backups badly.

I welcome any comments and any assessments or alternate picks of your own.

overly harsh, IMHO

if laws had fallen 1 more pick, i think we are talking about a "A" graded draft.

as it stands, i think that davis is going to be a tremendously productive player for zorn. he has skills that cooley doesnt appear to have in that he can go up the seam, and after catching the ball, i think he is going to be more elusive.
he will have to prove he can become a blocker.

at the worst he is a poor man's alge crumpler. at the best, he will be a clone of crumpler and torment secondaries for years.

i have warmed to the punter pick as well.

so what are we talking about here ? the difference between barrett and moore ? the difference between smith (someone i would have favored as well) and brennan ? we are talking about 3rd stringers either way.. i like both the brown and devan picks and wouldnt be in the least surprised if both make the roster outright. add them to a slimmed down and buffed heyer (or so JLC said) and we have the makings of a very solid back up unit for the o line..

the major void here is at D line, which really wasnt addressed. but if buzbee and wilson are improved, we may be more than good enough

overall, i think the draft deserves at least a solid B.. if davis turns into an offensive force and we get reserves out of the O line picks we might be looking fondly back at this draft as one of the foundations of future SB appearances...

[chrisbcbu]

Your alternate pick of Henderson is not a good pick. That guy wasnt even drafted. If we wanted him we could have gotten in via UDFA.

[skinsfan36]

Your alternate pick of Henderson is not a good pick. That guy wasnt even drafted. If we wanted him we could have gotten in via UDFA.

something majorly is wrong with henderson that we dont know that scouts do

[jaylen]

I heard that he may have had some flags regarding the weed,I'm just saying thats what I heard about Henderson. But he got 20 G's upfront as an UDFA with Minny so oh well.

I happen to think that Davis is gonna play alot for some reason I got the feeling Zorn wanted a faster te to get down field quicker just my suspicion. I love Cooley but coaches have different ideas sometimes.I know Cooley has to be like WTF.

I really hope Reinhart can be a player this season along with the punter and Tryon.

[redskinz#1fan]

I heard that he may have had some flags regarding the weed,I'm just saying thats what I heard about Henderson. But he got 20 G's upfront as an UDFA with Minny so oh well.

I happen to think that Davis is gonna play alot for some reason I got the feeling Zorn wanted a faster te to get down field quicker just my suspicion. I love Cooley but coaches have different ideas sometimes.I know Cooley has to be like WTF.

I really hope Reinhart can be a player this season along with the punter and Tryon.

I don't see Davis taking any playing time from Cooley, but I do see multiple formations with both of them on the field at the same time...which will cause match-up problems. Zorn may be new, but he ain't stupid. You don't give your leading receiver from last year less opportunities.

[fent]

I don't see Davis taking any playing time from Cooley, but I do see multiple formations with both of them on the field at the same time...which will cause match-up problems. Zorn may be new, but he ain't stupid. You don't give your leading receiver from last year less opportunities.

yeah...just imagine a set with Portis in the backfield, cooley and davis at TE/Hback and some combo of moss, ARE, thomas, kelly on the outside. If Moss is on the field, the safety HAS to go to him to defend the potential deep ball then you have 1 on 1s all over the field. cooley and davis especially intrigue me in this situation because you'll have a LB on at least on of them, if not both. if the rookies pan out like we hope, the results could be devastating for opposing defenses..

[WinnpegSkinsFan]

overly harsh, IMHO

if laws had fallen 1 more pick, i think we are talking about a "A" graded draft.

as it stands, i think that davis is going to be a tremendously productive player for zorn. he has skills that cooley doesnt appear to have in that he can go up the seam, and after catching the ball, i think he is going to be more elusive.
he will have to prove he can become a blocker.

at the worst he is a poor man's alge crumpler. at the best, he will be a clone of crumpler and torment secondaries for years.

i have warmed to the punter pick as well.

so what are we talking about here ? the difference between barrett and moore ? the difference between smith (someone i would have favored as well) and brennan ? we are talking about 3rd stringers either way.. i like both the brown and devan picks and wouldnt be in the least surprised if both make the roster outright. add them to a slimmed down and buffed heyer (or so JLC said) and we have the makings of a very solid back up unit for the o line..

the major void here is at D line, which really wasnt addressed. but if buzbee and wilson are improved, we may be more than good enough

overall, i think the draft deserves at least a solid B.. if davis turns into an offensive force and we get reserves out of the O line picks we might be looking fondly back at this draft as one of the foundations of future SB appearances...
You are probably right. If the Skins had drafted Laws over Davis i would be ecstatic over their draft. If our picks on O pan out we could have a dynamic scoring machine. However it is the lack of Dline help that concerns me. I really like Wilson and if he can double his sack total that will be a huge benefit. But, he is mainly a situational pass rusher, IMO. I still think we need to get a base 4-3 LDE that can add some reasonable QB pressure in non-3rd down situations. Daniels doesn't provide that. He may be of more benefit as an interior pass rusher now. Let's hope for the best in September.

[ChiefPowhatan17]

I would have liked to get Josh Barrett also, but the Skins FO thought different. Must've been because of the benching late in their season, I think it was after an injury come back. I don't know the full details, just read a brief synopsis.

[pmdad]

How would this have been for our first 3 picks:

1. Devin Thomas

2. Calais Campbell

3. Dan Conner

2009 you would have Campbell starting at LDE (probably this year) and Conner taking over for Washington. This would have made much more sense to me.

[gravesUKRedskin]

.....here are my thoughts overall.

It's been a week now since the draft, and I have had some time to catch up with all the feelings about our draft performance this year. And I am going to say something that may surprise you.

I am happy with this years draft. There, I said it. Now i know that some of you are going to spilling tea over this (yes I am british after all!!), but here is my explination.

1. For the last 2-3 years we have been all been collectively screaming for someone in the front office to take note and get hold of some big, deep threat receivers. Now, we potentially have two great ones, who can learn from one of the best deep threat guys around, and from one of the best possesion threats around. If that does not set us up for years to come, then I do not know what will.

2. The selection of a big TE/FB is really something that will help our running as defenders will never be sure what he is doing out there, and will allow Cooley to play up against a LB when running routes.

3. I know everyone seems concerned about the fact we did not pick up a DL/DE, but I have a theory on that. Our DL really started to play well towards the end of the year, and I think the FO believe they can get one more good year without having to make changes. I believe that next year is the draft when we will look to pick up some DE/DL men to provide a bit of youth and enthusiam to challenge the current line up.

I really believe that the front office listened to what our Coach wanted, which is also why thay are getting lots of praise in the media as they believed we did the same thing as well. I really like what I am hearing from the Coach and the rest of the players and I feel more confident about next year with every word read.

[warpaint]

How would this have been for our first 3 picks:

1. Devin Thomas

2. Calais Campbell

3. Dan Conner

2009 you would have Campbell starting at LDE (probably this year) and Conner taking over for Washington. This would have made much more sense to me.

happy we didnt take campbell, dont think he would have been starting here not with the 16 reps 225 pounds, connor prefer our pick over him .

[colkurtz]

As posted previously, other teams really went deep into the DL and OL Picks before we got our picks. So do you draft your 6th DE selection on your board or your #1 WR selection?

We went with the WR / TE selections and this seems fitting with Zorn's first season here. Frankly I just don't see Blache here more than a season. So next season you let the new DC make some high picks.

I initially graded this as a B+, but on later thought give it a B. Good but without some more OL or DL blood it couldn't go higher.

[Skins7ny]

How would this have been for our first 3 picks:

1. Devin Thomas

2. Calais Campbell

3. Dan Conner

2009 you would have Campbell starting at LDE (probably this year) and Conner taking over for Washington. This would have made much more sense to me.
I would have preferred this as well, especially Campbell with the 2nd pick. . I am not angry or upset about Davis and Kelly, however. I like the idea of providing Campbell with an excess of weapons. We have had a terrible deficit for too many years, and that needed to change. I have a feeling that they will all pan out, and if so, three 2s was a small price to pay for changing our arsenal from one of the leagues shalloweest to one of the leagues' deepest.
As posted previously, other teams really went deep into the DL and OL Picks before we got our picks. So do you draft your 6th DE selection on your board or your #1 WR selection?

We went with the WR / TE selections and this seems fitting with Zorn's first season here. Frankly I just don't see Blache here more than a season. So next season you let the new DC make some high picks.
I initially graded this as a B+, but on later thought give it a B. Good but without some more OL or DL blood it couldn't go higher.
Why is that? Because you think he will retire? Or you think he will be forced out?

[shally]

I would have preferred this as well, especially Campbell with the 2nd pick. . I am not angry or upset about Davis and Kelly, however. I like the idea of providing Campbell with an excess of weapons. We have had a terrible deficit for too many years, and that needed to change. I have a feeling that they will all pan out, and if so, three 2s was a small price to pay for changing our arsenal from one of the leagues shalloweest to one of the leagues' deepest.

Why is that? Because you think he will retire? Or you think he will be forced out?


he wanted to retire at the end of last year.. stayed on primarily out of sense of loyalty to his players.

JLC has said that blache really has bonded with zorn.. if that is true, he might not be a one year DC.. still, it would be a good idea to groom his eventual replacement.. olivadotti certainly comes to mind in this capacity.. maybe gray as well...

[PennSkinsFan]

The only pick I worry about, and believe I love the guy, is Devin Thomas. More consistency beyond one season would have sold me. Interesting thing is --- we went fromt he smurfs to now having Anthoy Mix, Kelly, and Thomas. What a change in size.

[guess88]

3. I know everyone seems concerned about the fact we did not pick up a DL/DE, but I have a theory on that. Our DL really started to play well towards the end of the year, and I think the FO believe they can get one more good year without having to make changes. I believe that next year is the draft when we will look to pick up some DE/DL men to provide a bit of youth and enthusiam to challenge the current line up.


I wonder if this was cause the offense was working better under Collins, thus giving the D more time to rest. Lots of games, I noticed the D would get tired from the O constantly going 3 and out.

We definitely need more youth on the D, but for now, maybe adding offensive weapons will actually make the D play better. We can focus on drafting D line next year.

[Hr fan]

After a week IMO this is a good draft. In terms of talent a B or B+. In terms of need an A.

I realize the last grade is controversial. However, I feel with the Girls 13-3 record, the Gints being SB champs, the Iggles having an undistracted Andy Reid and a healthy McNabb our chances at anything other than a wild card are not good, and given the strength of the division 3 teams could finish 8-8 and out of it. Now add in the age and injury histories of Kendall, Jansen, Thomas, Griffin, Daniels, Rogers, MacIntosh, and the unfortunate loss of ST, we are ripe for playing without a full deck very early in the year. We think we were close to the division title? Not so. We were close to not being a playoff team? IMHO, yes. I agree with the Times columnist that observes with our patchwork of players last year our run to the playoffs was a near miracle, and in addition IMO was largely due to Gibb's HOF leadership skills.

Will we be better this year? IMO, yes. Will this translate into more victories? Probably not, with so much reliance on flawlessly learning a new offense and reliance on rookie/near rookie WRs (it usually takes time to learn this position). The D won't be as good (ST was a once-in-a-lifetime talent). The O will be better at the end of the season as Zorn's O becomes reactive, but our early schedule could make this point moot for 2008.

But not moot for 2009! I really like the chances of our 3rd rounder and DeVan and Brown joining Heyer as a solid nucleus of a young O line. The return of Rocky and Rogers to full strength (it usually takes a full season), the addition of Tryon and the (hopeful) maturation of Torrence, and the seasoning of Wison and Buzbee will make the D both younger and stronger. The year practicing the new O and the maturation of our new receivers (I include Mix here) and our new TE will make the O stronger. If Durant solves our punting consistency problems and a returner not named ARE will help both special teams and the passing game. What we will need is D linemen, a LB to replace MW, and maybe a S on D, and very little on O and STs.

We have our first 3 picks and IMO the expectation of an early mid-round draft picks. This is where impact or upgrades to the D line and LBs are available, not later in the draft. And these positions are reactive, meaning they contribute sooner, often in the 1st year.

We entered the draft needing nearly every position. The fo (and I NEVER thought I would say this) did a superb job of maximizing value at some positions realizing no single draft couuld address all positions of need. We will improve in 2008 (though not necesarily in record), contend for the divisiuon in 2009 hopefully, and be poised for a run in 2010.

Is this eternity to us fans? Yes. Is it a reasonable and objective appraisal by the fo? IMHO, yes. Hence an A for facing reality, NOT trading for a 30+ year old divisive talented WR, trading down and getting 3 players rated in the top 21 by many former scouts, initiating an O line rebuild (this takes longer than a D line rebuiuld), possibly stabilizing the STs at returner and punter (as well as getting younger with developmental prospects like Mix instead of relying on older vets like Thrash), and realizing that a new O will take more time to perfect than a tweaked D. Thus an A.

[riggo1]

great analysis - thanks - I am very excited. I think this is the strongest one we have had in years with all the picks. Awesome how we would have probably picked the same player with the 21st pick and still managed the trade.

On another note - what the heck is your picture???

[Skins7ny]

he wanted to retire at the end of last year.. stayed on primarily out of sense of loyalty to his players.

JLC has said that blache really has bonded with zorn.. if that is true, he might not be a one year DC.. still, it would be a good idea to groom his eventual replacement.. olivadotti certainly comes to mind in this capacity.. maybe gray as well...

I think if we are doing well, as I expect, it will be hard for Blache to say no to another year. Also, however much money he has saved up over his long career, it will be hard to say no to the Danny's coordinator salary, which I am sure is at the upper end of the league pay scale...

[HanburgerBum]

How would this have been for our first 3 picks:

1. Devin Thomas

2. Calais Campbell

3. Dan Conner

2009 you would have Campbell starting at LDE (probably this year) and Conner taking over for Washington. This would have made much more sense to me.


Dan Conner is good value in the 3rd round, but is he a good fit for the Skins? He is generally regarded as a ILB for the 3-4. Not only is he questionable as a suitable replacement for Marcus Washington, where would Conner play? Is there a hint the Skins are switching to the 3-4?