The curse of 370 carries

[cal_junior]

With Portis currently on pace for 373 carries this year, the Post website this morning had an interesting piece on what happens when a running back reaches that magic number for runs in season. Here is a quote:

On 27 different occasions in NFL history, a running back has carried the ball 370 or more times in the regular season. You can sort those backs into three groups: backs that got hurt and were never the same, backs whose productivity just fell off, and Eric Dickerson.

It's nice, quick read, especially because we just signed one of the most recent examples of the so-called curse.

http://views.washingtonpost.com/theleague/smarterstats/2008/10/the-curse-of-370.html

[AliBabba]

With Portis currently on pace for 373 carries this year, the Post website this morning had an interesting piece on what happens when a running back reaches that magic number for runs in season. Here is a quote:



It's nice, quick read, especially because we just signed one of the most recent examples of the so-called curse.

http://views.washingtonpost.com/theleague/smarterstats/2008/10/the-curse-of-370.html
I read this earlier but not sure what to make of it. While I understand why excessive use would end an RBs career early, I don't necessarily believe that there is anything special about the number 370.

Also, there is the issue thats its just wrong. The guy never even brings up Tomlinson's 2002 campaign in which he had 372 carries. The next year he had one of his best seasons ever with 100 receptions.

LDT Player Page (http://www.nfl.com/players/ladainiantomlinson/careerstats?id=TOM683150)

[JasonCampbell]

Scary stuff. I really don't think CP will be able to be very effective late in the season if he keeps on getting 25+ carries a game. The passing game has to pick up some.

[shally]

i think it is a great article, even though the figure of 370 is clearly arbitrary

anyone know what walter payton's max number was ??

and if you want to know why SA is on the roster, look no further.. i think Zorn wants to keep CP from logging 120 carries during a 4 game stretch while betts is inactive.. rock clearly brings little or nothing to the table.
a refeshed SA could.. especially serving as a receiver out of the backfield taking those long handoffs from JC on swing passes..

i will also say that if portis logs anywhere near 370 carries by the end of the season, he will be far less effective at the end and in the playoffs..

and with portis, there is even one factor that many of the other runners didnt have to deal with-- blitz blocking... i cannot remember anyone blocking with the kind of violence that portis does..

if you noticed, portis has started to run out of bounds on some of his runs.. good for him !! get what you can and then go out..

[smoak]

I don't care about 370, but cookie dough, Betts (when healthy), and Rock need to start shouldering some of the load. The issue is that the Redskins have "net points" of a whopping +12... Which means all the games are close and who do we turn to with the game on the line?? Hopefully they get clicking in the passing game and take a little pressure off b/c we have been a little stagnant now for a few games. Portis is going to run out og gas if we aren't careful.

[AliBabba]

I don't care about 370, but cookie dough, Betts (when healthy), and Rock need to start shouldering some of the load. The issue is that the Redskins have "net points" of a whopping +12... Which means all the games are close and who do we turn to with the game on the line?? Hopefully they get clicking in the passing game and take a little pressure off b/c we have been a little stagnant now for a few games. Portis is going to run out og gas if we aren't careful.
I agree with your point, I am just as concerned that overuse will make Clinton less effective towards the end of this season as I am concerned about future seasons.

[shally]

Scary stuff. I really don't think CP will be able to be very effective late in the season if he keeps on getting 25+ carries a game. The passing game has to pick up some.

KEEBLER...say it again with me, KKKEEEEEBBBLLLERRRRRR...

[redskin_rich]

i think it is a great article, even though the figure of 370 is clearly arbitrary

anyone know what walter payton's max number was ??


381.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PaytWa00.htm

[shally]

I don't care about 370, but cookie dough, Betts (when healthy), and Rock need to start shouldering some of the load. The issue is that the Redskins have "net points" of a whopping +12... Which means all the games are close and who do we turn to with the game on the line?? Hopefully they get clicking in the passing game and take a little pressure off b/c we have been a little stagnant now for a few games. Portis is going to run out og gas if we aren't careful.

forget about rock.. he is totally useless on offense

betts ? hurt.. you know how that goes... KKKKEEEEBBLLER to the rescue...

[shally]

381.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PaytWa00.htm


thanks

and he had 2 decent years after that before failing in the third and calling it a career

and i still cannot believe he has passed.. what a tragedy...God's mercy on him...

[cal_junior]

anyone know what walter payton's max number was ??

Payton rushed 381 times in 1984, for 1,684 yards and 11 TDs

He played in 16 games each of the next two seasons, rushing 324 and 321 times, respectively. 1987 was his last year in the league.

[RoanokeSkin]

I dont think that this will have the same affect on Clinton as he rarely gets hit squarely. He takes the occasional shot, but most of the backs on that list, like Johnson, Anderson, George, and Foster were guys who got squared up pretty frequently and tried to run through people. Clinton normally ends up falling forward, typically on one of his own blockers.

Don't get me wrong, he still runs very tough, but I don't think he takes as many "shots" as most of that list.

[shally]

I dont think that this will have the same affect on Clinton as he rarely gets hit squarely. He takes the occasional shot, but most of the backs on that list, like Johnson, Anderson, George, and Foster were guys who got squared up pretty frequently and tried to run through people. Clinton normally ends up falling forward, typically on one of his own blockers.

Don't get me wrong, he still runs very tough, but I don't think he takes as many "shots" as most of that list.


2 different styles.. when he runs inside, he runs through piles and takes a lot of hits... on the edge runs, he has started to go out of bounds at the end... more power to him

[AliBabba]

Payton rushed 381 times in 1984, for 1,684 yards and 11 TDs

He played in 16 games each of the next two seasons, rushing 324 and 321 times, respectively. 1987 was his last year in the league.
So basically this guys whole point about the number 370 only works because he didn't do his homework?

Anyhow, the important fact is what we all realize. Its not good for CP to take 25 carries a game. We need to dole some out to Keebler and others when they are available. But, as smoak said earlier, its much easier to say this than to actually do it when you are playing such close games every week.

[smoak]

forget about rock.. he is totally useless on offense

betts ? hurt.. you know how that goes... KKKKEEEEBBLLER to the rescue...

I'll just say I disagree about Rock and leave it at that b/c I don't want to derail the thread... "Totally useless" is short sighted in my mind though...

[shally]

I'll just say I disagree about Rock and leave it at that b/c I don't want to derail the thread... "Totally useless" is short sighted in my mind though...

we can agree to disagree, then.. i respect your opinion, but i NEVER want to see rock in for another meaningful offensive play again..

[esmith1790]

in 1995 Emmitt Smith had 377 carries, so he only rushed for 9399 yards in 9 years after that.

That curse stat was most likely thrown out then too!

[cal_junior]

in 1995 Emmitt Smith had 377 carries, so he only rushed for 9399 yards in 9 years after that.

That curse stat was most likely thrown out then too!

Emmitt rushed for 1,400 or more yards in five of his first six seasons. After the 377 year he never did it again and only broke 1,300 twice in his last nine years in the league. Doesn't that qualify as his productivity falling off?

[esmith1790]

Emmitt rushed for 1,400 or more yards in five of his first six seasons. After the 377 year he never did it again and only broke 1,300 twice in his last nine years in the league. Doesn't that qualify as his productivity falling off?

Do you remember how bad the cowboys sucked after their super bowl run? WHen you are way behind, you are forced to throw the ball. He still had 6 more 1000+ yards seasons after that. A few more carries per game and his 1200 would have been closer to the 1400.



there is no way anyone can sustain 1400 yards a season anyways.

[BurgundyNGold]

Meh. Curtis Martin (who I most liken Portis to in my mind) had 368 carries in his 1st year, 369 carries in his 4th and 367 in his 5th. And he only went on to play 11 seasons and end up 4th all time in rushing yards. Sure, he didn't get 370+ carries until year 10, but does 2 or 3 more carries really matter that much? I don't think so.

[cal_junior]

there is no way anyone can sustain 1400 yards a season anyways.


I don't disagree with you. But based on the parameters of the "curse," Emmitt qualifies. His yards per carry and yards per season went down after the season in which he broke 370.

[greatest2]

wear and tear is real and understandable for that position. now i can't explain why curtis martin didn't fall off after 368, i mean its only 2 more carries, but i do believe in the overal concept that alot of carries leads to short careers.


i think we all concentrate on the caries but we also forget how violently portis plays the position. his blocking must take a toll on him just as his carries do. he has been in the league awhile, and a workhorse his entire time in DC.


i think we should all enjoy portis. the way he plays, the ability he still has. because sooner or later, carries/blocking/downfield blocking/catch's will catch up to him like they do to everyone. he is not a machine. i enjoy him everytime he runs, but also get a little disappointed with every carry cause i know the ticker is counting towards zero, i just don't know where it is at yet.

[cal_junior]

but does 2 or 3 more carries really matter that much?

Of course not, but I sure would love it if CP could keep his carries south of 350 this season.

[AliBabba]

Of course not, but I sure would love it if CP could keep his carries south of 350 this season.
I agree with that although he has topped that number as well and had his best year as a skin the following year.

In any case, the person who wrote this article that JLC linked to should really have done more research before grabbing this number out of thin air.

[shally]

Do you remember how bad the cowboys sucked after their super bowl run? WHen you are way behind, you are forced to throw the ball. He still had 6 more 1000+ yards seasons after that. A few more carries per game and his 1200 would have been closer to the 1400.



there is no way anyone can sustain 1400 yards a season anyways.

i think that is fair.. plus, nobody can be faulted for having their production fall off when they go to arizona

[shally]

Meh. Curtis Martin (who I most liken Portis to in my mind) had 368 carries in his 1st year, 369 carries in his 4th and 367 in his 5th. And he only went on to play 11 seasons and end up 4th all time in rushing yards. Sure, he didn't get 370+ carries until year 10, but does 2 or 3 more carries really matter that much? I don't think so.


i have said it before, but i believe ..

curtis martin is the closest back to CP i can think of..

[Biggie]

It doesn't matter. We'll be 13-2 by Week 17 and have a bye locked up, so Clinton can take two weeks off and recover.

:beer:

It's true that Portis is on pace for that many carries, but I think as the Zorn passing offense starts to pick up and Betts comes back, Portis will have to shoulder less of a load. He's already doing a fairly good job of keeping himself from taking too many shots, as has been said.

[esmith1790]

i think that is fair.. plus, nobody can be faulted for having their production fall off when they go to arizona

i think 9400 yards in 9 years is still nothing to be over looked. I think the curse has to many variables in it.

IF CP can still turn out 1000 yards a season and JC can keep the offense moving, the skins should be dominate.

[shally]

i think 9400 yards in 9 years is still nothing to be over looked. I think the curse has to many variables in it.

IF CP can still turn out 1000 yards a season and JC can keep the offense moving, the skins should be dominate.

CP might have 1000 yards by next week.. after all it is the lions...

[shally]

It doesn't matter. We'll be 13-2 by Week 17 and have a bye locked up, so Clinton can take two weeks off and recover.

:beer:

It's true that Portis is on pace for that many carries, but I think as the Zorn passing offense starts to pick up and Betts comes back, Portis will have to shoulder less of a load. He's already doing a fairly good job of keeping himself from taking too many shots, as has been said.

that is also why alexander is here

[FanFromArizona]

I'm gonna toss this into the conversation:

I DON'T THINK CLINTON WILL ALLOW HIMSELF TO CARRY 370 TIMES.

sounds controversial, but Clinton has always pulled himself at the most inopportune times....nothing is going to change......

He will pull himself and sideline himself before he gets too worn down.....

but I do agree, that we need the other facets of the offense to help keep CP fresh.

What is also scary is that he out there on third down as a short check-down option for JC, I would be more concerned at the number of DOWNS he plays as opposed to the number of carries he gets.

[GreenspanDan]

i don't buy it. i think clinton will hold up fine after this season. if he hits 1900 yards, sure you might see a dropoff. 1500 yards will seem like a big disappointment in 2009, i guess! fine with me!

[AliBabba]

that is also why alexander is here
You love that guy so much :)

[FanFromArizona]

You love that guy so much :)

what do you expect of a true Seattle homer? lol.

[dj_stouty]

CP led the league in carries last season, so you have to think it woudn't be wise to do it two years in a row. (assuming 370 is tops this year) Here's hoping we lock in the playoff berth early so he can rest in week 17. ;)

[shally]

You love that guy so much :)

yes

what do you expect of a true Seattle homer? lol.


and, yes... i dont think he has lost as much as people think he has.. particularly as a pass receiver. he still has some speed and some receiving skills.
and the line he will be behind now is much more like the great seattle line of the past than the crappy seattle lines of the last year or so..

[InsomniaKiller]

Portis really doesn't look like he's taking a beating. He's avoiding big hits and is somehow continuing to get better as the year goes on. And this is after him carrying the load for us for a few years already. He was close to 370 carries his first year w/ us, wasn't he?

No cause for concern from where I'm sitting.

[akhhorus]

Alright, well, don't run him 370 times then. Next thread lol.

[MWballer]

& ppl complain that he's not in the game enough as is.

I'm gonna toss this into the conversation:

I DON'T THINK CLINTON WILL ALLOW HIMSELF TO CARRY 370 TIMES.


Exactly I think him and Zorn are well aware of the number of carries that CP has. CP does a very good job of not taking the big hit and getting out of bounds when hes gotten all he can out the run. If he ran like M. Barber I'd be a lot more worried. As the season wears on S. Alexander and L. Betts will get more of the carries from CP & hopefully we'll learn to blow a team out!

[skinfan43]

CP might have 1000 yards by next week.. after all it is the lions...
Yup, CP could very well top the 200 mark in that one...but I'd prefer 300/3tds from Campbell and 100/2tds from Portis...then again, who wouldn't? LOL

[esmith1790]

CP might have 1000 yards by next week.. after all it is the lions...

what i was refering too, IF JC can fully mature into Zorns offense and not have to rely on CP getting 25-135 each week, the skins can deal with CP breaking down (1000-1200) yards a season.

IF CP can get 1100 a year for the next 5 years, i think the skins willl be just fine.

[Patrick]

I'm gonna toss this into the conversation:

I DON'T THINK CLINTON WILL ALLOW HIMSELF TO CARRY 370 TIMES.

sounds controversial, but Clinton has always pulled himself at the most inopportune times....nothing is going to change......

He will pull himself and sideline himself before he gets too worn down.....

but I do agree, that we need the other facets of the offense to help keep CP fresh.

What is also scary is that he out there on third down as a short check-down option for JC, I would be more concerned at the number of DOWNS he plays as opposed to the number of carries he gets.

Kinda agree but also don't think Zorn will allow 370 carries. He's excited about having SA here now to back CP. I actually see 60/40 split once SA gets a little more comfortable with the offense.

[greatest2]

Kinda agree but also don't think Zorn will allow 370 carries. He's excited about having SA here now to back CP. I actually see 60/40 split once SA gets a little more comfortable with the offense.

agree about the comfort level, but not with the split in carries. you also have to consider non run plays. pass blocking and catch's. portis is better in both, and him and JC have a chemistry from working together so much.

i forsee a split of 75/25. that 25 includes betts and alexander. portis gets 75 percent.

[colkurtz]

Although 370 is an arbitrary number I think the point is valid: if Clinton is ridden too hard by this offense he won't finish the season well. Nor will he last for the long-haul.

This offense has too much talent to make one guy carry so much of the load. Zorn has to take the chance of an INT and let JC get Thomas or Davis into this offense. Moss and ARE disappear in some games and need to make it happen. Let the WCO be more of the WCO.

Finally let's see if Shaun Alexander has even a few drops of fuel and desire left in his tank. Run him more than a couple times in the game. If he's lame then the FO can sent Keino to deliver the "don't let the door hit you as you're leaving" letter to SA.

[shally]

Although 370 is an arbitrary number I think the point is valid: if Clinton is ridden too hard by this offense he won't finish the season well. Nor will he last for the long-haul.

This offense has too much talent to make one guy carry so much of the load. Zorn has to take the chance of an INT and let JC get Thomas or Davis into this offense. Moss and ARE disappear in some games and need to make it happen. Let the WCO be more of the WCO.

Finally let's see if Shaun Alexander has even a few drops of fuel and desire left in his tank. Run him more than a couple times in the game. If he's lame then the FO can sent Keino to deliver the "don't let the door hit you as you're leaving" letter to SA.

we were doing fine with betts until he got hurt.. that is the key. have someone who can spell CP and still give us quality plays..

[hail2skins]

This thread is one big curse.

[shally]

This thread is one big curse.


and i think that makes me nervous as well...

[colkurtz]

I think the point is that clinton is having a MVP year but we shouldn't have to grind him up against teams like the Rams, Browns and Lions. Use the long ball and the rookies and score some points. It'll open up the defense and keep CP from facing 8 in the box.

[nicefellow31]

I agree with that although he has topped that number as well and had his best year as a skin the following year.

In any case, the person who wrote this article that JLC linked to should really have done more research before grabbing this number out of thin air.

The curse of 370 is in the Football Prospectus book. I read the article and the guy did his homework. He does not say 100% of the time that 370 is a curse, but the vast majority of backs who top that number see their production decline.

[shane88]

Portis carries the ball A LOT! Especially since coming to DC. In the off season people are complaining that he "takes himself out of the game too much", he's "on the sidleines too much", etc. Ya know, we can't complain about him carrying the ball too much AND taking himself out of the game at times, all at the same time. While we'd all like it, we can't have our cake and eat it, too.
I'm not disputing or arguing either point, as both points are valid, just pointing out the fact that in the fans' eyes, he's damned if he does, damned if he doesn't! lol

[nicefellow31]

Portis carries the ball A LOT! Especially since coming to DC. In the off season people are complaining that he "takes himself out of the game too much", he's "on the sidleines too much", etc. Ya know, we can't complain about him carrying the ball too much AND taking himself out of the game at times, all at the same time. While we'd all like it, we can't have our cake and eat it, too.
I'm not disputing or arguing either point, as both points are valid, just pointing out the fact that in the fans' eyes, he's damned if he does, damned if he doesn't! lol

I know what you mean. I got in a discussion here during the offseason when people were complaining that C.P. was out of shape and took himselt out of ballgames too much . I argued that he lead the league in attempts last year so he must be doing something right.

[give_portis_the_rock]

I know what you mean. I got in a discussion here during the offseason when people were complaining that C.P. was out of shape and took himselt out of ballgames too much . I argued that he lead the league in attempts last year so he must be doing something right.

And in terms of fatigue, shouldnt almost all downs count as carries for Clinton? He's knocking 350 pound defenders on their backs -- that must take a lot out of him. They don't even show his blocks anymore on the replays since it's become routine.

[shally]

And in terms of fatigue, shouldnt almost all downs count as carries for Clinton? He's knocking 350 pound defenders on their backs -- that must take a lot out of him. They don't even show his blocks anymore on the replays since it's become routine.

might even be more at risk picking up 250 pound linebackers flying in at full speed
those are some violent collisions

[lorimike]

I think it depends. After many of Clinton's long runs he will wave himself out of the game because he's tired. The other part of it this is consider the games we played the last few years where we played from behind. instead of running Portis, He ends up blocking or receiving. Bottom line is he is only 27 years old and we'll only have him as a quality back for so long . We my as well use him.

[skinsfan36]

when betts is healthy we can let him run behind the line he did it well in 06. he is not the player portis is but he can rack up some yards behind this line.
the 370 curse yuck. they talked about this on the john thompson show and jt said give him the ball. i think he will get aton of carries but he may not eclipse 360 imo as the passing game will start to click and take some pressure of him.

[shally]

when betts is healthy we can let him run behind the line he did it well in 06. he is not the player portis is but he can rack up some yards behind this line.
the 370 curse yuck. they talked about this on the john thompson show and jt said give him the ball. i think he will get aton of carries but he may not eclipse 360 imo as the passing game will start to click and take some pressure of him.

hopefully, we use him less in the second half of the season because we need to use him less.. it would be nice if the passing game started clicking for long gains and td's