Potomac Prediction thread

[CNYSkinFan]

Thought this would be a great idea since I was doing my predictions over at 3BD. Don't worry I am not linking to it, but here it is:

Electoral College: Obama 352 - McCain 186
US Popular Vote: Obama 53 - McCain 46 - Other 1
US Senate: Democrats 58 GOP 40 Ind 2
US House: Democrats +25
Analysis: I am predicting that the states that are leaning one way or the other in the Presidential Projector will stay that way. Obama will pick up ND, NC, & FL, McCain will pick up MO, IN, & MT. Obama basic lead in the pop vote stays as the undecideds stay home or break even. In the Senate Franken and Martin score upsets and win but McConnell will hold on. This will leave a problem for the Democrats as they will need votes from Joe Lieberman to get a filibuster proof majority. In the House Democrats get a nice boost as blue states become bluer and the Democrats take advantage of almost every open seat.


Anyone else up to the challenge?

[GreenspanDan]

my prediction would not vary significantly from yours. i'd be tempted to give obama MO and IL though, because personally i think the models are underestimating african-american turnout, and relative differences in enthusiasm between republicans and democrats. here in prince william county, my doorbell has been rung by 4 obama canvassers and zero mccain canvassers.

[GreenspanDan]

update: the *5th* obama supporter just rang my bell and gave me some stickers :D

still no sign of mccain's organization in this prince william county suburb. crazy.

(edit: i meant IN not IL above)

[RedskinsDave]

update: the *5th* obama supporter just rang my bell and gave me some stickers :D

still no sign of mccain's organization in this prince william county suburb. crazy.

Probably too dangerous for them.

[akhhorus]

Electoral college: 338-200 Obama(Kerry states+Nevada, Iowa, NM, Colorado, Ohio, VA and Florida)
Pop: 54/46
Senate: 58-42 Dems(Dems pick up Alaska, Oregon, Minnesota, NM, VA, NH, CO and NC. Beau Biden replaces his father, Tammy Duckworth replaces Obama, Obama finds a job for Lieberman to get him out of the Senate)
House: Dem add 18 seats.

[RedskinsDave]

Thought this would be a great idea since I was doing my predictions over at 3BD. Don't worry I am not linking to it, but here it is:

Electoral College: Obama 352 - McCain 186
US Popular Vote: Obama 53 - McCain 46 - Other 1
US Senate: Democrats 58 GOP 40 Ind 2
US House: Democrats +25
Analysis: I am predicting that the states that are leaning one way or the other in the Presidential Projector will stay that way. Obama will pick up ND, NC, & FL, McCain will pick up MO, IN, & MT. Obama basic lead in the pop vote stays as the undecideds stay home or break even. In the Senate Franken and Martin score upsets and win but McConnell will hold on. This will leave a problem for the Democrats as they will need votes from Joe Lieberman to get a filibuster proof majority. In the House Democrats get a nice boost as blue states become bluer and the Democrats take advantage of almost every open seat.


Anyone else up to the challenge?

The early numbers point to you guys pretty much nailing it. Good job!