Nomad
01-08-2009, 03:13 PM
Writer's block, so going to fritter some time on a mockable draft.
Our picks:
1st -
2nd - Jason Taylor trade
3rd -
4th - Pete Kendall trade
5th -
6th -
7th - Erasmus James
7th - Optimistically assume we got a comp
Not going to beat this drum too hard, but this is sickening. How does Vinny Cerrato have a job? One can often find quality G/C in 4th round. We traded a 4th for a soon to be retired G. Good teams like the Giants find starting DEs with high 2nd round picks, we trade a 2nd (and 6th next year), for a soon to be retired RDE we play at LDE. Erasmus James is tough to criticize, may have been an acceptable risk, but like most of what Cerrato does, it didn't pan out. You look at all three of these trades, and ask if the Ravens, or Parcells would have made them, the answer is flat out, no way. (Not referring to Parcells fleecing us.) The difference, once again, between stopgaps, and long term contributors. Lots of people defended the Taylor trade at the time, and still defend the Kendall trade. I don't. Even if Taylor lit it up, which he didn't, we weren't a contender, and we should be drafting to find long term starters.
You can bet your arse Parcells will draft a long term starter with our second round pick, and that pick will be playing for a decade after Taylor retires.
My assesment of the team:
1. Defense top-5, but can't rush passer and beat top-notch QBs, and has depth issues at DL and LB. I address DL this year, get by with stopgaps for another year.
2. Offense needs an entire OL, a true change of pace back for Portis, and a true #1 WR. And possibly a QB, but we won't know that until Campbell finally gets year two in the same system.
3. We need a punter, a kicker, a punt returner, and depending on #2 above, a kick returner. We should bring in every undrafted college FA P & K on earth, and give Brooks another shot, and find someone young.
My basic philosophy: This team is at least 2 years from being a contender, plan that way. Don't trade ANY picks. Trade older, declining players for picks. Don't sign any big name, big salaried free agent who is older than 26, period. Jordan Gross wil be 29 at the start of the season next year, Haynesworth 28. Haynesworth in particular has some injury issues, gets the snot beat out of him with constant double teams, and will command almost 10M a year. No thanks. In 2 years when we're competitive, he'll be 30, and may very well be worn down and more injury prone but uncuttable. Just like our current situation in other words. Same for Gross. Jansen was totally healthy and dominant until his late 20s. No, the same thing won't necessarily happen to Gross, but I want to replace our 32 year old RT with a 22 - 24 year old RT, not a 29 year old RT. We need to get significantly younger, not replace older players with other nearly-old players. So I'll pass on Haynesworth, Gross, and anyone else who isn't mid 20s or younger. I also have no interest in signing Housh, who is 31.
If I'm stuck at #13: I take either a franchise LT, or DE, possibly a DT. My philosophy is that out of what we need, LT or DE are the two hardest positions to fill (also QB and CB, but we shouldn't be drafting there). I take the BPA out of these three. I'm not drafting a G that projects to tackle, or a G or C, this high. If a true franchise LT is available, and I can trade down, I take the franchise tackle rather than trade down, but only if it is a dominant T. Samuels is hurt more and more. If he goes down for any extended period of time, our season is over, as we have NO depth. Yeah, you can say that about any team, but we also have no RT. Draft Samuel's replacement, and play him at RT. We should cut Taylor and trade Carter, but we won't, so we have 2 RDEs, and no true LDE, at least not a young one. Evans is 29! If a naturally large LDE is available, take him. No tweeners! Someone who is naturally at least 275. Not 260 but could bulk up, but 270 lbs or more right this second, with the ability to maybe add 10 more lbs. No high pick should be spent on anyone with major known injury issues, or character issues (Kelly had both, again, how does Vinny have a job?). I understand that DT may be a greater need, but elite DEs are simply harder to find than DTs. In general, I favor OL over DL because D has remained respectable, and bad DL play doesn't get your franchise QB hurt, bad OL play does, especially Ts.
If I can trade down the #13, I do, ideally twice, once lower in 1st round, once out of 1st round into second. This may be a pipe dream. If I traded down once, depending how low I slid, I would first look for LDE or RT. If none, DT. If none, G or C, which would certainly be there.
Every other pick in the draft would be a lineman, D or O, except maybe a LB or WR with late pick. We need a PR and have production issues at WR, so a later pick on this if someone with potential I would risk. We also have no depth at LB once MW gone, same deal there.
I think long term, Portis will get less and less durable. You need a change of pace back, but we can't afford that this year. You have to take the hit, scuttle either Betts or Rock, and get someone Ds fear to spell Portis. He has to be used more sparingly early on so he isn't beat to hell at the end of every year. But that may not be possible this year.
People focus on need, but we aren't winning the SB next year either. No, I'm not a hater, and spare me the any year can be anyone's year drivel always used to defend our horrendous trades. We need to come out of this draft, at a minimum, with 2 solid OLs that can start or contribute, and a DT or LDE. Play the board, what is there is there.
Having said that, this means Cerrato will draft a CB, 2 LBs, 1 OL, 1 DL.
Ideally, Cerrato would trade Moss, Carter, etc., and rebuild, but that is a pipe dream.
Finally, we need a change of philosophy that emphasizes youth, giving young players with potential a shot rather than dogmatically clinging to dinosaurs. Crummey should have been on our roster, someone older cut. When we see young players with a spark, take a chance on them and scuttle the dinosaurs. Do that year in year out, you end up with 2-3 starters who are diamonds in the rough.
All this factors into the way you draft and resign. People say resign Kendall. Why? It is a sheer act of will for him to get through the season with his knees. Give a guy like Crummey a shot, rather than hanging onto guys who are on the downward slide of their career. I would have cut Kendall last year, and told Crummey, Geisinger, and Rinehart, one of you is starting, and whoever does will get a 500K bonus. I would have traded Betts and given Mason a shot at RB. This may have backfired, but to me Betts is nothing special, we need someone GOOD to spell Portis. Any one of these decisions may have been bad, but in aggregate that would have resulted in a younger, developing roster. And it goes without saying I never would have frittered a 2nd round pick on mid-30s Jason Taylor. If we had valued picks and gone young, we would have that second round pick, we could draft a RT with 1st round pick, a G or C with 2nd, a DT/DE with 4th. Then our OL would be: Samuels, Heyer, RT drafted, G drafted, Crummey, Rinehart, Thomas, Rabach, Geisenger. Maybe all don't pan out, but we are young and developing rather than ancient. Coulda, shoulda, woulda.
Note I didn't mention any specific players, as this is almost impossibly speculative after FA and the combine, much less before it.
Mock away!
Our picks:
1st -
2nd - Jason Taylor trade
3rd -
4th - Pete Kendall trade
5th -
6th -
7th - Erasmus James
7th - Optimistically assume we got a comp
Not going to beat this drum too hard, but this is sickening. How does Vinny Cerrato have a job? One can often find quality G/C in 4th round. We traded a 4th for a soon to be retired G. Good teams like the Giants find starting DEs with high 2nd round picks, we trade a 2nd (and 6th next year), for a soon to be retired RDE we play at LDE. Erasmus James is tough to criticize, may have been an acceptable risk, but like most of what Cerrato does, it didn't pan out. You look at all three of these trades, and ask if the Ravens, or Parcells would have made them, the answer is flat out, no way. (Not referring to Parcells fleecing us.) The difference, once again, between stopgaps, and long term contributors. Lots of people defended the Taylor trade at the time, and still defend the Kendall trade. I don't. Even if Taylor lit it up, which he didn't, we weren't a contender, and we should be drafting to find long term starters.
You can bet your arse Parcells will draft a long term starter with our second round pick, and that pick will be playing for a decade after Taylor retires.
My assesment of the team:
1. Defense top-5, but can't rush passer and beat top-notch QBs, and has depth issues at DL and LB. I address DL this year, get by with stopgaps for another year.
2. Offense needs an entire OL, a true change of pace back for Portis, and a true #1 WR. And possibly a QB, but we won't know that until Campbell finally gets year two in the same system.
3. We need a punter, a kicker, a punt returner, and depending on #2 above, a kick returner. We should bring in every undrafted college FA P & K on earth, and give Brooks another shot, and find someone young.
My basic philosophy: This team is at least 2 years from being a contender, plan that way. Don't trade ANY picks. Trade older, declining players for picks. Don't sign any big name, big salaried free agent who is older than 26, period. Jordan Gross wil be 29 at the start of the season next year, Haynesworth 28. Haynesworth in particular has some injury issues, gets the snot beat out of him with constant double teams, and will command almost 10M a year. No thanks. In 2 years when we're competitive, he'll be 30, and may very well be worn down and more injury prone but uncuttable. Just like our current situation in other words. Same for Gross. Jansen was totally healthy and dominant until his late 20s. No, the same thing won't necessarily happen to Gross, but I want to replace our 32 year old RT with a 22 - 24 year old RT, not a 29 year old RT. We need to get significantly younger, not replace older players with other nearly-old players. So I'll pass on Haynesworth, Gross, and anyone else who isn't mid 20s or younger. I also have no interest in signing Housh, who is 31.
If I'm stuck at #13: I take either a franchise LT, or DE, possibly a DT. My philosophy is that out of what we need, LT or DE are the two hardest positions to fill (also QB and CB, but we shouldn't be drafting there). I take the BPA out of these three. I'm not drafting a G that projects to tackle, or a G or C, this high. If a true franchise LT is available, and I can trade down, I take the franchise tackle rather than trade down, but only if it is a dominant T. Samuels is hurt more and more. If he goes down for any extended period of time, our season is over, as we have NO depth. Yeah, you can say that about any team, but we also have no RT. Draft Samuel's replacement, and play him at RT. We should cut Taylor and trade Carter, but we won't, so we have 2 RDEs, and no true LDE, at least not a young one. Evans is 29! If a naturally large LDE is available, take him. No tweeners! Someone who is naturally at least 275. Not 260 but could bulk up, but 270 lbs or more right this second, with the ability to maybe add 10 more lbs. No high pick should be spent on anyone with major known injury issues, or character issues (Kelly had both, again, how does Vinny have a job?). I understand that DT may be a greater need, but elite DEs are simply harder to find than DTs. In general, I favor OL over DL because D has remained respectable, and bad DL play doesn't get your franchise QB hurt, bad OL play does, especially Ts.
If I can trade down the #13, I do, ideally twice, once lower in 1st round, once out of 1st round into second. This may be a pipe dream. If I traded down once, depending how low I slid, I would first look for LDE or RT. If none, DT. If none, G or C, which would certainly be there.
Every other pick in the draft would be a lineman, D or O, except maybe a LB or WR with late pick. We need a PR and have production issues at WR, so a later pick on this if someone with potential I would risk. We also have no depth at LB once MW gone, same deal there.
I think long term, Portis will get less and less durable. You need a change of pace back, but we can't afford that this year. You have to take the hit, scuttle either Betts or Rock, and get someone Ds fear to spell Portis. He has to be used more sparingly early on so he isn't beat to hell at the end of every year. But that may not be possible this year.
People focus on need, but we aren't winning the SB next year either. No, I'm not a hater, and spare me the any year can be anyone's year drivel always used to defend our horrendous trades. We need to come out of this draft, at a minimum, with 2 solid OLs that can start or contribute, and a DT or LDE. Play the board, what is there is there.
Having said that, this means Cerrato will draft a CB, 2 LBs, 1 OL, 1 DL.
Ideally, Cerrato would trade Moss, Carter, etc., and rebuild, but that is a pipe dream.
Finally, we need a change of philosophy that emphasizes youth, giving young players with potential a shot rather than dogmatically clinging to dinosaurs. Crummey should have been on our roster, someone older cut. When we see young players with a spark, take a chance on them and scuttle the dinosaurs. Do that year in year out, you end up with 2-3 starters who are diamonds in the rough.
All this factors into the way you draft and resign. People say resign Kendall. Why? It is a sheer act of will for him to get through the season with his knees. Give a guy like Crummey a shot, rather than hanging onto guys who are on the downward slide of their career. I would have cut Kendall last year, and told Crummey, Geisinger, and Rinehart, one of you is starting, and whoever does will get a 500K bonus. I would have traded Betts and given Mason a shot at RB. This may have backfired, but to me Betts is nothing special, we need someone GOOD to spell Portis. Any one of these decisions may have been bad, but in aggregate that would have resulted in a younger, developing roster. And it goes without saying I never would have frittered a 2nd round pick on mid-30s Jason Taylor. If we had valued picks and gone young, we would have that second round pick, we could draft a RT with 1st round pick, a G or C with 2nd, a DT/DE with 4th. Then our OL would be: Samuels, Heyer, RT drafted, G drafted, Crummey, Rinehart, Thomas, Rabach, Geisenger. Maybe all don't pan out, but we are young and developing rather than ancient. Coulda, shoulda, woulda.
Note I didn't mention any specific players, as this is almost impossibly speculative after FA and the combine, much less before it.
Mock away!