The Green Revolution

[akhhorus]

Iran held an "election" last friday, with Ahmadinejad supposedly winning over 60% of the vote(which surprised even his supporters). Leaks from their ministry of elections had Moussavi(a reformer) winning pretty easily.

There's a lot of confusion, but what we do know is this:
*Tehran is in chaos. Many other cities are racked by pro-Moussavi protests also.
*A lot of opposition politicians and clerics have been put under house arrest.
*The Iranian army appears to be staying neutral in all this.
*The Iranian revolutionary guard is trying to intimidate(with mixed results) the Western Media who were in country for the election.
*also, there are a lot of unconfirmed reports that Iran has imported Hezbollah to suppress the protesters since the regular police seem to refuse to do it.

There's a lot of youtube video of what's going on(including amazing videos of the protesters showing their dissatisfaction by chanting on their rooftops at night), and the only real source of information coming out of Iran is twitter and the Western Media.

The next 48-100 hours will be critical for the future of Iran, but according to the reports: it looks like Ahmadinejad pulled a coup on the Supreme Ayatollah and whatever emerges to govern Iran, it won't be the status quo.

[Chief Seeway]

1. So was the Ayatollah's endorsement made under duress?

2. Was there really ever a doubt the election results would be questioned?

[akhhorus]

1. So was the Ayatollah's endorsement made under duress?

Thats what Moussavi's camp is saying. They claim that they were told by Khamenei and the Election ministry told them that they won, go ahead and announce it the next morning---then armed men and the revolutionary guard descended on the interior ministry and Khamenei suddenly announced his "confirmation" of Ahmadinejad's victory within hours of the vote being ended(its usually 3 days before the results are confirmed).

2. Was there really ever a doubt the election results would be questioned?

Its pretty clear that the vote wasn't counted. They just made up a vote and thought people would accept it.

[Biggie]

To be honest, I don't even think the vote rigging is the biggest issue anymore. The authorities are just going ape#@% on every protester they can find, storming universities and attacking students in their dormitories, beating innocent women with nightsticks, deploying their plainclothes paramilitaries to beat people into submission (probably some of the more chilling video I've seen), reportedly cutting off access to hospitals for those who have been wounded, bringing in Hezbollahis from Lebanon to help brutalize their own citizenry because apparently Iranians aren't up to the job... this absolutely disgusts me and yet I can't turn away.

Whether or not the Supreme Leader sanctioned this fraud or not, I don't think you can deny that huge numbers of people have completely lost faith in the Islamic Republic. This government is clearly not for them.

[shally]

prayers for them.. this is their opportunity to show what type of country they really want, and to reject the obvious fraud..

as long as the military stays neutral they have a chance.. hopefully this will end as the solidarity protests ended-- with a reform government truly representative of the people's will

[firehawk157]

You've summed it up about as well as it can be. It's getting ugly fast. It's bad this hasn't gotten any real news play either, is western media asleep at the wheel.

[shally]

so far, nothing good happening for the people there..

www.nytimes.com has front page articles on it and commentary by cohen who is there...

[akhhorus]

To be honest, I don't even think the vote rigging is the biggest issue anymore. The authorities are just going ape#@% on every protester they can find, storming universities and attacking students in their dormitories, beating innocent women with nightsticks, deploying their plainclothes paramilitaries to beat people into submission (probably some of the more chilling video I've seen), reportedly cutting off access to hospitals for those who have been wounded, bringing in Hezbollahis from Lebanon to help brutalize their own citizenry because apparently Iranians aren't up to the job... this absolutely disgusts me and yet I can't turn away.

Whether or not the Supreme Leader sanctioned this fraud or not, I don't think you can deny that huge numbers of people have completely lost faith in the Islamic Republic. This government is clearly not for them.

This would explain why, in what can only be described as a stunning reversal, the Supreme Leader has ordered an investigation into the election. It could be a whitewash, but it shows some cracks/strain: he "confirmed" the divine results twice already.

You've summed it up about as well as it can be. It's getting ugly fast. It's bad this hasn't gotten any real news play either, is western media asleep at the wheel.

NYT, Huffpo, BBC, Weekly Standard and Andrew Sullivan's coverage have been fantastic. CNN and the US networks have just been awful(nbc has had some good moments though).

[fent]

not good....


Reuters reported that marchers clashed with supporters of President Ahmadinejad riding motorcycles.

The BBC's Jon Leyne, in Tehran, says he understands plain-clothed militias have been authorised to use live ammunition for the first time.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8099952.stm

[Biggie]

There's a huge protest march going through Tehran right now with both Mousavi and Karroubi participating, but none of the worthless US networks have any footage (apparently Sky News in the UK does).

Edit - Oh look, it's on BBC Persian. I have to go to the Brits to get coverage of this. Embarassing.

[akhhorus]

Apparently Moussavi's rally is in the hundreds of thousands, and the police are refusing to do anything about it.

[shally]

Apparently Moussavi's rally is in the hundreds of thousands, and the police are refusing to do anything about it.

unless you have tanks and are willing to use them, like the chinese, there is little you can do except let the marchers wear themselves out...

[akhhorus]

unless you have tanks and are willing to use them, like the chinese, there is little you can do except let the marchers wear themselves out...

They do have tanks in Tehran right now. And the government declared the rally illegal, so they can't do what they're doing now: which is nothing. Also, the state run media is mentioning the rally(the first time they've mentioned any of the protests) and accurately describing their size and attitude(which is striking).

[Biggie]

Apparently Moussavi's rally is in the hundreds of thousands, and the police are refusing to do anything about it.
I wouldn't try to get in the way of that either (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCQpSfH-LtQ&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fandrewsullivan.theatlantic.com%2 F&feature=player_embedded).

[akhhorus]

I wouldn't try to get in the way of that either (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCQpSfH-LtQ&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fandrewsullivan.theatlantic.com%2 F&feature=player_embedded).


http://i.friendfeed.com/48d860fd22ba06f295a434ef6a9bcca1a6ea44ee

Yeah, you don't want to try and stop maybe a million people, but you can't do nothing if you're the cops. Thats telling the protesters that you give up--especially after the brutality of the last few days.

Another pic:
http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gadgets/slideshows/1753/slide_1753_23715_large.jpg

[shally]

that's a LOT of people in the streets...

[Biggie]

BBC is reporting gunfire, probably from the security forces.

[shally]

BBC is reporting gunfire, probably from the security forces.

werent they "authorized" to use live ammo earlier today ??

could get even uglier

[akhhorus]

werent they "authorized" to use live ammo earlier today ??

could get even uglier

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/.a/6a00d83451c45669e20115711583c4970b-500wi

[shally]

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/.a/6a00d83451c45669e20115711583c4970b-500wi

wonder how long this level of chaos is allowed to go on before the military
feels it has to step in ?

if it looks like it is losing steam, no problem.. but if it spreads they cant allow it to continue

[shally]

n y times reporting that the government website has been hacked and brought down by opposition supporters, and protest have spread to isfahan, among other cities...

[akhhorus]

n y times reporting that the government website has been hacked and brought down by opposition supporters, and protest have spread to isfahan, among other cities...

And some Iranian state media sites have been brought down.

[BostonSkins]

Good for the Iranian people. They felt they were wronged by the powers that be and are expressing their displeasure. Unfortunately I think this spirit has vanished from America.

[Biggie]

And some Iranian state media sites have been brought down.
I'm proud to say I took part in this.

[shally]

Good for the Iranian people. They felt they were wronged by the powers that be and are expressing their displeasure. Unfortunately I think this spirit has vanished from America.

there is absolutely no comparisons between the repressive regime(s) under which the irani's have suffered for decades, and our own free society.. we have problems here for certain, but we have a stable democratic government with transfer of power with order and minimal fuss

even the election of moussavi would have yielded only some loosening of the grip the clerics have on society, not a free democratic society.. my hopes and prayers continue for these brave people

[BostonSkins]

there is absolutely no comparisons between the repressive regime(s) under which the irani's have suffered for decades, and our own free society.. we have problems here for certain, but we have a stable democratic government with transfer of power with order and minimal fuss

even the election of moussavi would have yielded only some loosening of the grip the clerics have on society, not a free democratic society.. my hopes and prayers continue for these brave people

I just think that if our politicians thought that something like that could still happen here they wouldn't abuse their office the way they do.

[shally]

I just think that if our politicians thought that something like that could still happen here they wouldn't abuse their office the way they do.

again, we have our azzclowns to be sure, but nobody is even close to the class of A-jad...

[akhhorus]

again, we have our azzclowns to be sure, but nobody is even close to the class of A-jad...

+1

And considering how much Congress(house and senate) has seen incumbents(and leaders) thrown out in the last 4 years, its hard for me to believe that the voters don't hold idiots accountable.

[akhhorus]

One of the most respected clerics in Iran issues a statement coming down on the side of the protesters:

Link (http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/grand-ayatollah-montazeri-takes-a-stand.html)



In the name of God

People of Iran

These last days, we have witnessed the lively efforts of you brothers and sisters, old and 210px-Montazeri young alike, from any social category, for the 10th presidential elections.

Our youth, hoping to see their rightful will fulfilled, came on the scene and waited patiently. This was the greatest occasion for the government’s officials to bond with their people.

But unfortunately, they used it in the worst way possible. Declaring results that no one in their right mind can believe, and despite all the evidence of crafted results, and to counter people protestations, in front of the eyes of the same nation who carried the weight of a revolution and 8 years of war, in front of the eyes of local and foreign reporters, attacked the children of the people with astonishing violence. And now they are attempting a purge, arresting intellectuals, political opponents and Scientifics.

Now, based on my religious duties, I will remind you :

1- A legitimate state must respect all points of view. It may not oppress all critical views. I fear that this lead to the lost of people’s faith in Islam.

2- Given the current circumstances, I expect the government to take all measures to restore people’s confidence. Otherwise, as I have already said, a government not respecting people’s vote has no religious or political legitimacy.

3- I invite everyone, specially the youth, to continue reclaiming their dues in calm, and not let those who want to associate this movement with chaos succeed.

4- I ask the police and army personals not to “sell their religion”, and beware that receiving orders will not excuse them before god. Recognize the protesting youth as your children. Today censor and cutting telecommunication lines can not hide the truth.

I pray for the greatness of the Iranian people.

[shally]

One of the most respected clerics in Iran issues a statement coming down on the side of the protesters:

Link (http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/grand-ayatollah-montazeri-takes-a-stand.html)

hopefully this ends well. great promise and great risk for the people of iran..

[akhhorus]

Today's rally

http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gadgets/slideshows/1769/slide_1769_24040_large.jpg

[shally]

Today's rally

http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gadgets/slideshows/1769/slide_1769_24040_large.jpg

huge rally.. lots of brave people out there

[Biggie]

Today's rally

http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gadgets/slideshows/1769/slide_1769_24040_large.jpg
That's the Naqshe Jahan square in Isfahan - it's one of Iran's most recognizable places. Even never having been there, I can't tell you how moving that image was.

[shally]

That's the Naqshe Jahan square in Isfahan - it's one of Iran's most recognizable places. Even never having been there, I can't tell you how moving that image was.

reminds me of some pics of crowds on our own Mall

[akhhorus]

The protests got bloody and violence today, and the regime is now looking desperate:
1-They announced a supposed bombing(which only blew out a window from the video they showed on Iranian State TV) of Khomenei's tomb on Iranian State TV before the bombing supposedly happened.
2-After nightfall, the Iranian State TV reported that the Assembly of Elders(the body of 86 clerics who can remove Khamenei and as run by an ally of Moussavi) issued a statement that they fully support the results of the election and back Khamenei fully. Turns out that it was just one member of that assembly who said that.

[Biggie]

The protests got bloody and violence today, and the regime is now looking desperate:
1-They announced a supposed bombing(which only blew out a window from the video they showed on Iranian State TV) of Khomenei's tomb on Iranian State TV before the bombing supposedly happened.
2-After nightfall, the Iranian State TV reported that the Assembly of Elders(the body of 86 clerics who can remove Khamenei and as run by an ally of Moussavi) issued a statement that they fully support the results of the election and back Khamenei fully. Turns out that it was just one member of that assembly who said that.
It's unfortunate that Khamenei & Co. collectively have a lot more backbone than the Shah, otherwise they might actually back down. In retrospect, however, it's clear why the government has put so much effort into the Basij - they've been doing all the oppressing, and the police (according to Roger Cohen today) seem much less enthusiastic about beating innocent protesters.

[shally]

It's unfortunate that Khamenei & Co. collectively have a lot more backbone than the Shah, otherwise they might actually back down. In retrospect, however, it's clear why the government has put so much effort into the Basij - they've been doing all the oppressing, and the police (according to Roger Cohen today) seem much less enthusiastic about beating innocent protesters.

couple of points

the shah was very sick with cancer. he knew his time was running out, and the revolutionaries were much younger and stronger. (obviously not khomeni, himself-- but he was still vigorous).. he also came to power, not by popular forces, but by the actions of the CIA

the only thing that was keeping a lid on the country was Savak.. a lot like Basij, only worse.

this "revolution" has an extraordinary number of women and middle class people behind it. it takes a thug to kill women in the name of Islam, especially when they are marching peacefully..

i love the articles by cohen, and now, thomas friedman.. it is hard to overestimate the courage of the people of iran. taking on a repressive, armed regime with civil disobedience takes incredible courage. no doubt, marchers are being killed.. my hopes and prayers are with them..

[akhhorus]

It's unfortunate that Khamenei & Co. collectively have a lot more backbone than the Shah, otherwise they might actually back down. In retrospect, however, it's clear why the government has put so much effort into the Basij - they've been doing all the oppressing, and the police (according to Roger Cohen today) seem much less enthusiastic about beating innocent protesters.

It really doesn't matter if they backdown or not anymore. Even if they prevail, the regime has lost all legitimacy and they'll have to turn into an Islamic version of Burma just out of paranoia. That in turn will cripple their economy(especially if there's a brain drain), and its only a matter of time before it falls.

[shally]

It really doesn't matter if they backdown or not anymore. Even if they prevail, the regime has lost all legitimacy and they'll have to turn into an Islamic version of Burma just out of paranoia. That in turn will cripple their economy(especially if there's a brain drain), and its only a matter of time before it falls.

a lot of the "satisfaction" with the regime was bought with the fruits of their oil wealth.. as this has dropped, there was a simmering resentment that was there.

the iranians are also a highly intelligent society and this latest sham was a blatant insult to them.. women, in particular, are offended by the attempt to return control to the more reactionary leadership.. it wont sell.. it can be forced on them from top down, but eventually the leadership will loose control

[BurgundyNGold]

The crowds are still huge. Check out this video from Sunday.

http://shooresh1917.blogspot.com/2009/06/all-we-want-is-better-world.html

[shally]

The crowds are still huge. Check out this video from Sunday.

http://shooresh1917.blogspot.com/2009/06/all-we-want-is-better-world.html

is it confirmed that those are from sunday ? there have been some comments that some of the pics are not date confirmed

[BurgundyNGold]

is it confirmed that those are from sunday ? there have been some comments that some of the pics are not date confirmed
Supposedly.

I don't know when this one is from but it is pretty awesome. Especially the very end. Power to the people.

http://www.dailymotion.com/swf/x9ndxl

[Biggie]

Supposedly.

I don't know when this one is from but it is pretty awesome. Especially the very end. Power to the people.

http://www.dailymotion.com/swf/x9ndxl
I think that was yesterday or today.

[akhhorus]

Link (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/20090622/revolutionary-guards-iran-iranian-protests.htm)

A commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards has been arrested for refusing to obey Iran's Supreme Leader, according to reports from the Balatarin website.

General Ali Fazli, who was recently appointed as a commander of the Revolutionary Guards in the province of Tehran, is reported to have been arrested after he refused to carry out orders from the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to use force on people protesting the controversial re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

[Biggie]

Link (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/20090622/revolutionary-guards-iran-iranian-protests.htm)
I still haven't seen any solid confirmation for that, although with the media blackout and the fact that state TV sure as hell isn't going to report top brass in mutiny, I don't think there'll be any. If it's true, well, it's the kind of thing Mousavi is praying for.

In other news, the opposition has announced a general strike starting Tuesday. Strikes played a big role in the '79 revolution, so if these have an impact the government is in trouble.

[shally]

I still haven't seen any solid confirmation for that, although with the media blackout and the fact that state TV sure as hell isn't going to report top brass in mutiny, I don't think there'll be any. If it's true, well, it's the kind of thing Mousavi is praying for.

In other news, the opposition has announced a general strike starting Tuesday. Strikes played a big role in the '79 revolution, so if these have an impact the government is in trouble.

if that video of that poor innocent girl dying doesnt break hearts around the world, i dont know what could..

i know many people die in revolutions and in violence every day, but to see in as graphic a video as that is simply heart-rending.. i have spend the better part of my life trying to fix broken bodies, but i cant remember as depressing a scene as that in a long long time..

how does someone have the coldness to pull the trigger and do that ?
from what i read, it was calculated and diliberate.. God have mercy on us as a human race if that is what we choose to descend to..

[akhhorus]

While the protests have largely died down, the struggle over the future of Iran hasn't. The most respected ayatollah in Iran(and all of Shia islam) has declared Khamenei and his regime illegitimate and working against Islam (http://tehranbureau.com/grand-ayatollah-montazeris-fatwa/). Unfortunately, this is merely the beginning of the struggle over the soul of Iran.

[shally]

While the protests have largely died down, the struggle over the future of Iran hasn't. The most respected ayatollah in Iran(and all of Shia islam) has declared Khamenei and his regime illegitimate and working against Islam (http://tehranbureau.com/grand-ayatollah-montazeris-fatwa/). Unfortunately, this is merely the beginning of the struggle over the soul of Iran.

as long as the government controls the armed forces and militia to the extent that those forces are willing to put down the protests, they are in control..

the day the military and militia is no longer willing to harm citizens who are simply protesting will be the day the regime's days are numbered.. Caucescu in Romania had the military and the feared secret police, but when the day came that they would no longer do his dirty work, he was doomed.. it will happen eventually in Iran.. the regime has less and less legitimacy every day and they will get increasingly desperate

[akhhorus]

as long as the government controls the armed forces and militia to the extent that those forces are willing to put down the protests, they are in control..

the day the military and militia is no longer willing to harm citizens who are simply protesting will be the day the regime's days are numbered.. Caucescu in Romania had the military and the feared secret police, but when the day came that they would no longer do his dirty work, he was doomed.. it will happen eventually in Iran.. the regime has less and less legitimacy every day and they will get increasingly desperate

Absolutely, but you can't be an "Islamic republic" and being fighting the clerics. If Iran tries to go the way of Burma and become a full blown police state, they're doomed. If just because they'll end up destroying their economy. You can become a police state if your economy is piss poor to begin with, you can't if it will cripple a large middle class.

[shally]

Absolutely, but you can't be an "Islamic republic" and being fighting the clerics. If Iran tries to go the way of Burma and become a full blown police state, they're doomed. If just because they'll end up destroying their economy. You can become a police state if your economy is piss poor to begin with, you can't if it will cripple a large middle class.

hard to believe that the middle class and students will tolerate this long term..

[akhhorus]

Massive protests in many parts of Iran today. In some cases, it appears that the protestors have overwhelmed the security forces.

Some pictures:
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/.a/6a00d83451c45669e20120a7826627970b-500wi

http://tehrandaily.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/war_in_tehran_streets_16.jpg

[akhhorus]

http://tehrandaily.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/war_in_tehran_streets_11.jpg

[CNYSkinFan]

stupid question...why does the tehran securtiy uniforms say "Police" in english on it?

[Fathead]

Probably cheaper and looks good when it shows up in our media.

[Biggie]

stupid question...why does the tehran securtiy uniforms say "Police" in english on it?
They probably import the equipment from Europe.