DFA: Post Lawsuit mock

[akhhorus]

Link (http://draftacademy.wordpress.com/2011/03/22/post-lawsuit-mock/)

Guff on!



Projected Skins’ trades:
Albert Haynesworth to Indy for Jerry Hughes+4th round pick+upgrading the Tyron trade to a 6th. Again, this trade makes far too much sense. Hughes has a role in DC, Haynesworth has a role in Indy.

McNabb to Tennessee for Tennessee’s 3rd round with a conditional clause based on McNabb’s performance in 2011. If he makes a pro bowl(or Tennessee makes the playoffs with McNabb making 10+ starts), the Skins get Tennessee’ 3rd in 2012. If not, Tennessee doesn’t owe Washington anything. Tennessee needs a better option than Collins, Young or Rusty Trombone. McNabb can give them 2 decent seasons to transition to someone like Kaepernick.
This is assuming the Skins resign Jammal Brown and sign a vet OG like Davin Joseph:

2nd: Christian Ponder QB FSU. Not the pure gunslinger Shanny likes, but a vet Qb with what appears to be a better arm than he flashed in college. He’s able to start on day 1(whenever that might be) without embarrassing himself. He will be infinitely more effective if the skins can organize a good running game so he can PA bootleg.
3rd(from Tennessee): Terrance Toliver WR LSU. Scouts’ opinions vary greatly on him. Some think he’s a top 50 pick, some think 4th/5th round. He’s a guy who seems to play bigger than he practices, but at the worst you’re getting a flanker who has a knack for moving the chains and making big catches.
4th(from Indy): Tim Barnes OC Missouri. Played in a shotgun system without much problem, a natural pass blocker, some question about his run blocking.
5th(natural): DeMarcus Love OG Arkansas. He needs to work on his footwork, but he could become a starting RG.
5th(from Nola): Kendric Burney CB UNC. He cost himself a lot of money at the combine, but he might be one of those guys who only cares when it matters. Worth a flyer here imo.
6th(natural): Mike Blanc DL Auburn. Very inconsistent and has trouble staying on the field, but natural ability and can dominate OGs in stretches.
6th(from Indy): Jordan Todman RB UConn. Derrick Locke lite. A one cut and go guy, I wouldn’t be surprised if he could beat out Torain/Williams for the starting gig.
7th: Josh Jasper K LSU. Makes big kicks and is used to…how to put this nicely…inconsistent last minute coaching.

[Keino]

Does your post-lawsuit mock assume a deal gets made whereby trading of players becomes permitted?

[akhhorus]

Does your post-lawsuit mock assume a deal gets made whereby trading of players becomes permitted?

Yes, but I didn't want to put in 1st round trades.

[Keino]

Yes, but I didn't want to put in 1st round trades.

Okay. I was thinking "How are we going to make these trades?". You should, if I can be so bold as to make a suggestion, do one that assumes that there is no labor deal prior to the draft. I'd be interested in how you project that....

[akhhorus]

Okay. I was thinking "How are we going to make these trades?". You should, if I can be so bold as to make a suggestion, do one that assumes that there is no labor deal prior to the draft. I'd be interested in how you project that....

I think I did that a couple mocks ago, but in general I think that you would see teams reach more for more ready-to-play players in their biggest need. Specifically for the Skins, I still still them going for Phil Taylor/Aldon Smith in round 1 and Ponder/Kaepernick in round 2.

[shally]

Newton wont last past the first 10 picks, much less all the way to 23..

someone will think he is the next great qb and will roll the dice

[akhhorus]

Newton wont last past the first 10 picks, much less all the way to 23..

someone will think he is the next great qb and will roll the dice

Lets look at the top 20:

1. Carolina:
2. Denver
3. Buffalo
4. Cincinnati
5. Arizona
6. Cleveland
7. San Francisco
8. Tennessee
9. Dallas
10. Washington
11. Houston
12. Minnesota
13. Detroit
14. St Louis
15. Miami
16. Jacksonville
17. New England(From Oakland)
18. San Diego
19. New York Giants
20. Tampa Bay

I'm going to exclude teams with very established Qbs or have other options of Young QBs, so the first cut(buffalo and Dallas shouldn't be looking at Newton and the rumors of them looking at him are fading):

1. Carolina:
4. Cincinnati
5. Arizona
6. Cleveland
7. San Francisco
8. Tennessee
10. Washington
12. Minnesota
15. Miami
16. Jacksonville

Carolina: They could consider it, but Gabbert makes far more sense.
Cincy: possible, depends on who is making the decisions, but they have bigger needs(and won't pass on Green or Jones for Newton).
Arizona: They need a Qb, but Whisenhunt isn't going to last if Newton needs years to develop.
Cleveland, San Fran and Minnesota all are instituting disciplined WCOs, Newton's out for all of them(unless they're idiots)
Tennessee's butt is still bleeding from Vince Young, so scratch them.
Miami needs a Qb who's ready Day 1, not day 500.

That leaves us with:
10. Washington
16. Jacksonville

Shanny won't want to wait for Newton and their offense isn't a good fit for Newton. Jacksonville is very plausible, especially since they want sell tickets, but if they want to replace Garrard, I would buy them flipping something to Denver for Tebow(who would sell more tickets and is available).

[shally]

Lets look at the top 20:

1. Carolina:
2. Denver
3. Buffalo
4. Cincinnati
5. Arizona
6. Cleveland
7. San Francisco
8. Tennessee
9. Dallas
10. Washington
11. Houston
12. Minnesota
13. Detroit
14. St Louis
15. Miami
16. Jacksonville
17. New England(From Oakland)
18. San Diego
19. New York Giants
20. Tampa Bay

I'm going to exclude teams with very established Qbs or have other options of Young QBs, so the first cut(buffalo and Dallas shouldn't be looking at Newton and the rumors of them looking at him are fading):

1. Carolina:
4. Cincinnati
5. Arizona
6. Cleveland
7. San Francisco
8. Tennessee
10. Washington
12. Minnesota
15. Miami
16. Jacksonville

Carolina: They could consider it, but Gabbert makes far more sense.
Cincy: possible, depends on who is making the decisions, but they have bigger needs(and won't pass on Green or Jones for Newton).
Arizona: They need a Qb, but Whisenhunt isn't going to last if Newton needs years to develop.
Cleveland, San Fran and Minnesota all are instituting disciplined WCOs, Newton's out for all of them(unless they're idiots)
Tennessee's butt is still bleeding from Vince Young, so scratch them.
Miami needs a Qb who's ready Day 1, not day 500.

That leaves us with:
10. Washington
16. Jacksonville

Shanny won't want to wait for Newton and their offense isn't a good fit for Newton. Jacksonville is very plausible, especially since they want sell tickets, but if they want to replace Garrard, I would buy them flipping something to Denver for Tebow(who would sell more tickets and is available).

all that you say is perfectly logical, but i am convinced Newton will attract some team that will use their natural pick, or will trade up into the top 10 picks to get him.. people will see the next Vick or McNabb and not the next Jamarcus Russell and will roll the dice on his pure athleticism.. watch and see

this might benefit Washington because if he is still there at 10, Shanahan can likely trade down and STILL get Taylor or Smith.. and then take Ponder or Kaepernick a bit later..

and there is one other factor to consider. if you have a coach on the hot seat, like Marv Lewis, taking someone like Newton buys him an extra year
to reasonably let Newton develop.. i think Cincy is actually where he ends up..

[akhhorus]

all that you say is perfectly logical, but i am convinced Newton will attract some team that will use their natural pick, or will trade up into the top 10 picks to get him.. people will see the next Vick or McNabb and not the next Jamarcus Russell and will roll the dice on his pure athleticism.. watch and see


I really doubt that. His combine performance is going to scare away most teams because he struggled with basic passing when his handlers couldn't set the conditions. Maybe some team with an older or replaceable QB(like Philly, KC, Chicago, Seattle or Oakland) trading into that 10-22 range to take a flyer on him--but if there's still labor unrest--ain't no one taking him before the late first. He's just not ready.

and there is one other factor to consider. if you have a coach on the hot seat, like Marv Lewis, taking someone like Newton buys him an extra year
to reasonably let Newton develop.. i think Cincy is actually where he ends up..

I don't think that this would buy him(or any hot seat coach) another year or two. Especially if he looks totally unready for the NFL.

[shally]

I don't think that this would buy him(or any hot seat coach) another year or two. Especially if he looks totally unready for the NFL.[/QUOTE]

didnt help Man-Gina in cleveland, i admit, but he was already going down and McCoy wasnt a top pick

i think because Palmer wants to exit Cincy and will get his wish, that unless Gabbert falls (he wont) or Philly trades Kolb to Cincy (cincy wont part with the picks needed) the obvious landing spot for Newton is the Bungles.. this looks like a trainwreck happening in slow motion..lol

[akhhorus]

didnt help Man-Gina in cleveland, i admit, but he was already going down and McCoy wasnt a top pick

i think because Palmer wants to exit Cincy and will get his wish, that unless Gabbert falls (he wont) or Philly trades Kolb to Cincy (cincy wont part with the picks needed) the obvious landing spot for Newton is the Bungles.. this looks like a trainwreck happening in slow motion..lol

If you're Lewis or Brown, wouldn't Vince Young+AJ Green or Julio Jones make more sense(from a Bungles standpoint)? You could probably get Young from the Titans for 25 cents on the dollar(figure a 4th at most). Actually, every team that would consider Newton probably would consider dealing for Young at cheaper cost.

[NCskinsfanatic]

If you're Lewis or Brown, wouldn't Vince Young+AJ Green or Julio Jones make more sense(from a Bungles standpoint)? You could probably get Young from the Titans for 25 cents on the dollar(figure a 4th at most). Actually, every team that would consider Newton probably would consider dealing for Young at cheaper cost.

I could be wrong but wasnt Young cut by the Titans already?

[akhhorus]

I could be wrong but wasnt Young cut by the Titans already?

They're going to try and trade him first.

[Emmanouel8]

I don't know if its good or bad that only 2 QBs go in the 1st round.

I'd be more than happy with Ponder if we can get him in the 2nd. The 9 picks ahead of us will be nerve racking in the 2nd round.

As far as QBs I'm very back and forth with Kaepernick. I like his ceiling and would love to see him pierce through philly twice a year, but I have a lot concerns about his option background. IMHO I'd rather go with Ponder or Stanzi before Kaepernick.

I honestly can't wait to see how this group of QBs do in the next few seasons.

[NCskinsfanatic]

They're going to try and trade him first.

Gotcha...

[shally]

If you're Lewis or Brown, wouldn't Vince Young+AJ Green or Julio Jones make more sense(from a Bungles standpoint)? You could probably get Young from the Titans for 25 cents on the dollar(figure a 4th at most). Actually, every team that would consider Newton probably would consider dealing for Young at cheaper cost.

No.. People worry that Newton could be a headcase..People KNOW that Young is a head case

[panamaMike]

No.. People worry that Newton could be a headcase..People KNOW that Young is a head case

Please forget about Ponder. I live in FSU country and I rooted for him for three years. He has that JC talent for losing on the last drive and he is very inconsistent. I’m sure that shanny already knows that while his combine work outs looked good, he has an arm like Billy Kilmer over 20 yards. Can’t throw a fade, deep out or deep post. He’s a great kid but take a pass.

[JoeJacksonTaylor28]

Is Ponder a 26-27-60 QB? Is Kaepernick? I don't know much about the NT, but I think Aldon Smith gives us better value with our #1.

[wave6ten]

Nice job although I can guarantee 2 things won't happen.

1. Saints won't take a TE in round 1...much more need @ DE and LB not to mention that they're enamored down here with Jimmy Graham and are content with resigning Thomas for blocking help.

2. Barksdale will not be drafted in the 1st round. While I do think he has talent he's just not getting the run and being an LSU grad watching the SEC he has trouble at times.

Now on to the Skins picks:

I think that is way too high for Phil Taylor to be picked...I think Aldon Smith is gaining some momentum as our pick but you have OLB covered with the Hughes trade in your scenario.

I'm really stuck on Julio Jones being our pick while praying we don't draft a QB in the 1st.

I think Ponder would be an excellent pick in the 2nd and would be ecstatic if he were our pick.

I think getting Tolliver where you have him is about his value and I can tell you he will drive you mad with his talent and inconsistency although I give him the benefit of the doubt due to LSU not having a legitimate QB on it's roster in the last 3 years. Tolliver has the ability and talent to become a Dwayne Bowe type player.

As for all the rest of the picks...I'm not familiar with all of these player but like the fact that you filled in with depth in key positions.

Jasper is definitely the man we need to draft with our last pick especially with kickoffs being moved to the 35...he's money from 45-50...kind of like a poor mans John Carney.

One other note...Hankerson to the Pats is very likely. I have a friend who works for BPS where Hankerson trained for the combine and word is the Pats have indicated that if Hankerson is available they're gonna take him. I just don't know if it will be there or with the 1st pick in round 2.

[Emmanouel8]

Is Ponder a 26-27-60 QB? Is Kaepernick? I don't know much about the NT, but I think Aldon Smith gives us better value with our #1.

Ponder is a 26/27/60 QB. Kaepernick is short 2-3% points on accuracy but is close enough to pass. In addition his accuracy was trending up if I recall correctly.

[colkurtz]

No.. People worry that Newton could be a headcase..People KNOW that Young is a head case

I just hate that so many draft sites have us picking Newton. He'll be another QB that we'll be arguing about into the last year of his contract. I just hope we don't try to grab him.

He is EXACTLY the sort of player Snyderrato would have drafted at #10.

[akhhorus]

No.. People worry that Newton could be a headcase..People KNOW that Young is a head case

Yes, but you don't have to expend a top 60 pick on Young. If I'm Buffalo or Cincy, I much rather give Tennessee a 4th(or conditional pick) for Young and address a bigger need in the 1st or 2n.

Is Ponder a 26-27-60 QB? Is Kaepernick? I don't know much about the NT, but I think Aldon Smith gives us better value with our #1.

Ponder is a 26/27/60 QB. Kaepernick is short 2-3% points on accuracy but is close enough to pass. In addition his accuracy was trending up if I recall correctly.

What Emmanouel8 said.

Nice job although I can guarantee 2 things won't happen.

1. Saints won't take a TE in round 1...much more need @ DE and LB not to mention that they're enamored down here with Jimmy Graham and are content with resigning Thomas for blocking help.

The Saints don't go after need early under Payton. In that scenario, Rudolph makes the most sense.

2. Barksdale will not be drafted in the 1st round. While I do think he has talent he's just not getting the run and being an LSU grad watching the SEC he has trouble at times.

Thanks for the opinion.

I think that is way too high for Phil Taylor to be picked...I think Aldon Smith is gaining some momentum as our pick but you have OLB covered with the Hughes trade in your scenario.

I'll take Taylor over Smith any day. A great NT will be worth more than Smith.

I think getting Tolliver where you have him is about his value and I can tell you he will drive you mad with his talent and inconsistency although I give him the benefit of the doubt due to LSU not having a legitimate QB on it's roster in the last 3 years. Tolliver has the ability and talent to become a Dwayne Bowe type player.

Toliver might not be a guy who puts up 70 catches/1200 yards, but he'll get 2-4 first downs on 3rd down a game for you at worst. Lafell did pretty well for the Panthers considering how little they used him, and I think Toliver is a better prospect. Toliver needs to play next to a Split end who can burn so that they can't put a safety on press with him, Armstrong qualifies as that imo.

One other note...Hankerson to the Pats is very likely. I have a friend who works for BPS where Hankerson trained for the combine and word is the Pats have indicated that if Hankerson is available they're gonna take him. I just don't know if it will be there or with the 1st pick in round 2.

He just seems like a Pats kind of player.

[skinsfan36]

love and burney are both better players than they have shown in workouts imo. love at og would be a good fit. if we aren targeting phil taylor we may be able to move down 4 spots and pick up a 3rd from the rams if we talk them into thinking we are going to grab a wr. ponder or kaepernick would be great in round two

[DaveKShape]

Hey ahk, I just finished a huge meal with my wife, which included many Ginger/jameson. Forgive me if I'm behind, but:

1) can you explain more in more detail why Taylor wouldbe a good fit for shanny? I know he is a physical force unlike most, but what could he offer us beyond anthony Bryant? A lot of others don't have him that high.

2) what does aldom smith offer us over a guy like Akeem ayers??? I understand that ayers can play any position in lb, but is he really that much more inconsistant than smith? Seems like smith is a lot more like orakpo... Elite talent with the inability to swat dudes' hands away.

[Patrick]

#1 P Taylor ........ I have seen this kid ALL over the board. As high as #6 and as low as #42. I like the kid allot but find it interesting the difference in opinion about the "pro/con" about him. Don't think he'll be as much of impact player his first year as people believe. He'll need to develop BUT in 2 years he'll be the #1 NT in the league IMO.

[akhhorus]

Hey ahk, I just finished a huge meal with my wife, which included many Ginger/jameson. Forgive me if I'm behind, but:

1) can you explain more in more detail why Taylor wouldbe a good fit for shanny? I know he is a physical force unlike most, but what could he offer us beyond anthony Bryant? A lot of others don't have him that high.

He has the potential to become a top 3 NT in the NFL within his first 3 seasons. Smith is a gamble too(more raw than Taylor) and if I was faced with the choice(or shanny is) Taylor brings more to the defense anyone else imo

2) what does aldom smith offer us over a guy like Akeem ayers??? I understand that ayers can play any position in lb, but is he really that much more inconsistant than smith? Seems like smith is a lot more like orakpo... Elite talent with the inability to swat dudes' hands away.

I actually think that Smith is farther along in his develop than Orakpo was when he came out. Smith won't have to be taught pass rush moves, Orakpo still does. I like Ayers, but I don't think that he's a good fit since we need more athleticism in the LB corps with Orakpo, Alexander and Fletcher in place.


#1 P Taylor ........ I have seen this kid ALL over the board. As high as #6 and as low as #42. I like the kid allot but find it interesting the difference in opinion about the "pro/con" about him. Don't think he'll be as much of impact player his first year as people believe. He'll need to develop BUT in 2 years he'll be the #1 NT in the league IMO.

If we were to draft him, we would split snaps between him and Bryant, but Taylor should take over the position fairly quickly.

[NCskinsfanatic]

Is Ponder a 26-27-60 QB? Is Kaepernick? I don't know much about the NT, but I think Aldon Smith gives us better value with our #1.

Yes Ponder did pass the rule, however Kaepernick didnt due to comp % heres the the 26-27-60 link:

http://www.hogshaven.com/2011/1/27/1958737/a-formula-for-drafting-qbs-that-works-rule-of-26-27-60

And here's a follow up article after wonderlic scores were assessed:

http://www.hogshaven.com/2011/3/17/2056069/applying-the-2011-qb-wonderlic-scores-to-the-26-27-60-rule

[NCskinsfanatic]

Yes Ponder did pass the rule, however Kaepernick didnt due to comp % heres the the 26-27-60 link:

http://www.hogshaven.com/2011/1/27/1958737/a-formula-for-drafting-qbs-that-works-rule-of-26-27-60

And here's a follow up article after wonderlic scores were assessed:

http://www.hogshaven.com/2011/3/17/2056069/applying-the-2011-qb-wonderlic-scores-to-the-26-27-60-rule

Personally I think unless we trade down the only QB that will be available at #41 (that passed the rule) will be Dalton. I see Pondder squeaking into the bottom of the 1st.

[akhhorus]

Yes Ponder did pass the rule, however Kaepernick didnt due to comp % heres the the 26-27-60 link:

http://www.hogshaven.com/2011/1/27/1958737/a-formula-for-drafting-qbs-that-works-rule-of-26-27-60

Kaepernick is only 1.8% off from passing, and he surpasses starts/Wonderlic metrics.

[shally]

Kaepernick is only 1.8% off from passing, and he surpasses starts/Wonderlic metrics.

the fact that he throws so many passes on the run says how acurate he really is..

he had a very fine pro day, yesterday .. we may not get him unless we trade back and take him in the later first round.. like Josh Freeman, someone is going to take him earlier than expected because they totally believe in him.. for sure, he wont get past the Niners in round 2.. if K is Shanahan's guy, he will have to take him in the first round

[akhhorus]

the fact that he throws so many passes on the run says how acurate he really is..

he had a very fine pro day, yesterday .. we may not get him unless we trade back and take him in the later first round.. like Josh Freeman, someone is going to take him earlier than expected because they totally believe in him.. for sure, he wont get past the Niners in round 2.. if K is Shanahan's guy, he will have to take him in the first round

I have no problem dropping into the 14-20 range and taking Kaepernick.

[Redskin4Life]

With the 49ers looking at QBs, any chance we take QB Alex Smith (reminds me alot of Jake Plummer) and not worry about the QB position in the draft (other than a developmental pick on the third day of the draft)?

[Redskin4Life]

Akh, just curious, but if there's a FA period before the draft, who do you like for the team?

[akhhorus]

With the 49ers looking at QBs, any chance we take QB Alex Smith (reminds me alot of Jake Plummer) and not worry about the QB position in the draft (other than a developmental pick on the third day of the draft)?

I wouldn't touch him.

Akh, just curious, but if there's a FA period before the draft, who do you like for the team?

If I was running the FO for just fee agency, I would sign:
Ronnie Brown
Davin Joseph
Johnathan Joseph

[dogfight6]

Do you really see J.J. Watt falling that far?

[DSkinFan]

I wouldn't touch him.

I would not touch Alex Smith either Troy Smith outplayed him last season for 49ers, and Troy I believe at this stage is the better prospect of two. Alex Smith will go down as one of the biggest QB busts like Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, David Carr, Brady Quinn etc.


If I was running the FO for just fee agency, I would sign:
Ronnie Brown
Davin Joseph
Johnathan Joseph

Agree on all three

[dogfight6]

Akh this will also work either way they just say The Skins trade a " player to be named later" for a " player to be names later" and the Colts 4th rounder. It works in baseball.

[akhhorus]

Do you really see J.J. Watt falling that far?

I think his stock is being hurt by Lawrence Guy's rise.

Akh this will also work either way they just say The Skins trade a " player to be named later" for a " player to be names later" and the Colts 4th rounder. It works in baseball.

I don't think that the NFL rules specifically prohibit that, but I think that you would have to specifically name the terms of what player(s) would move and how you would determine it.

[shally]

I would not touch Alex Smith either Troy Smith outplayed him last season for 49ers, and Troy I believe at this stage is the better prospect of two. Alex Smith will go down as one of the biggest QB busts like Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, David Carr, Brady Quinn etc.




Agree on all three

i think in the right scheme Smith could turn his career around.. his issue is whether he can stay healthy and his arm woes are over..