2010 Fantasy Football Advice Thread
 

The '09 Thread is HERE.

Good luck to everyone as they start preparing for their '10 drafts this summer/fall.

Early question: Do I keep Clinton Portis on my keeper league team?

Here's who else I have:

Adrian Peterson / Chester Taylor / Glenn Coffee / Correll Buckhalter / Jerious Norwood

Right now I'm inclined to say yes just to wait and see what happens in Washington with LJ / Parker / Torrain. Chester Taylor moving to Chicago is interesting since they have Matt Forte. All the rest are probably getting cut.

Thoughts?

I like Portis over Coffee, Buckhalter and Norwood Mike. Taylor could be a nice addition for da bears, especially if Forte continues to regress.

Mike,
I am suspect of the running game for "Da Bears" . . .especially with the new OC as Mike Martz. At best, IMHO, "Da Bears" will run tandem backs, but there will not be a strong push to develop a serious running game for either of them.

I drew the 6-hole in my 12-team pay league. Scoring is pretty standard, but at 100 yards, rushers get a 5 point bonus, receivers get a 7. From past drafting history, I don't expect any big surprises in the top 4 (i.e. no Brees/Rodgers in the top 4), so it's looking like I'll have my choice of at least 2 of Turner, Gore, and Andre at 6. Anyone have thoughts on what order to rank those? I think I lean Turner, Andre, Gore, but our league has so historically valued QB (most of them still draft like it's 2000), that I keep going back and forth on whether Andre's worth it over Gore.

If you were in a 10-owner league, I'd suggest Andre....but with 12, running backs are at a premium. Plus...the pickings at RB will be slim once you get to your 3rd pick looking for RB2. I'd go Gore over Turner...simply because Turner isn't a factor in the passing game and Gore is always good for 45-50 catches. I'd also consider S Jackson here because you know he is good for 300 carries and a bunch of catches.

For #18, you should hopefully have a pick from DeAngelo, Ced Ben or Ryan Grant. Any combination should set you up nicely at RB/RB.

For your 3rd pick...hopefully a WR like brandon Marshall, Colston or Desean will be sitting there for ya.

If QBs fall of the board in droves as you expect...then load up on playmakers and then go after QB value in the later rounds such as Flacco, Ryan or Eli.

Thanks for the help. That should read RB's in the last thought, not QBs. Not sure how I did that.

I've thought about Jackson there, but I just don't know how excited I can get about him as a number 1 back. He's always dealing with nagging injuries, and that line didn't get any better this season.

Well Coffee made this decision easy.

LOL, no kidding. :)

never did a 12 team league before. Any advice as to the changes from a 10 team league? I know Rbs will be at a premium(thanks DJ Stouty, read earlier post) but how does the drafting go. are WR's taken later meaning i will have a shot at some top guys in rd 3 while guys like grant go in rd 2. Thanks guys. ANy advice is greatly appreciated.

A lot of it has to do with the scoring of your league. If QBs get 6pts/TD then several could slip into the first round. If they get 4pts/TD, they will fall much further.

But regardless...RBs are still at a premium; especially now-a-days with more teams featuring shared RB duties rather than 1 premier 25-touches-per-game RB. I've found most owners will want to walk away from the first round with a RB/RB situation. There will always be owners who simply can't let Andre Johnson, Brees or Moss stay on the table late in the first round that will help you out.

I looked at some ADP results (based on QB getting 4pts) and here are some averages for 12-owner leagues in the first four rounds...

First round
RBs Taken - 8
WRs Taken - 2
QBs Taken- 2

1st round Analysis: Someone is itching for Andre, Moss, Brees and possibly Rodgers. Let them! Snatch your franchise RB and don't think twice about it.

Second round........... Total after 2 rounds
RBs Taken - 4........... RBs Taken - 12
WRs Taken - 7........... WRs Taken - 9
QBs Taken- 1.............. QBs Taken - 3

2nd round analysis: WRs start flying off the board. Either start that WR run by taking Reggie Wayne early in the round...or stay clear and pick up one of the solid RB2 options who may have fallen to the 2nd like Ryan Matthews or DeAngelo Williams.

Third round................. Total after 3 rounds
RBs Taken - 5.............. RBs Taken - 17
WRs Taken - 5............. WRs Taken - 14
QBs Taken- 2............... QBs Taken - 5

3rd round analysis: Things start to spread out while owners try and balance their rosters. The top 5 stud QBs are off the table, so if you didnt' get one by now, consider holding off a few rounds while you stock up on RB/WR. Cutler, Kolb, Favre and Flacco could be available in the 5th - 7th rounds.

Fouth round Total after 4 rounds
RBs Taken - 4................. RBs Taken - 21
WRs Taken - 4............... WRs Taken - 18
QBs Taken- 2.................. QBs Taken - 7
TEs Taken - 2................. TEs Taken - 2

4th round analysis - i'm surprised at how owners are downgrading RBs this year. After 4 rounds and at least 3 owners haven't filled their RB2 spot yet. Clark and Gates are starting to get looks in this round...but the big TE run will occur in the 5th when Whitten, Vernon, Finley (and possibly Gonzo and/or Celek) will be drafted.

OK...so after looking at the above, I'm not 100% sure my RB/RB philosophy is the best for this year - or even attainable. I guess it depends on your draft position and how the rest of your league drafts.

Also - Bye weeks are more meaningful in 12-owners leagues. Since roster talent is more spread out, you don't want too many starters to share the same bye. If I'm 50/50 on two players, their bye week will be a big factor in who I choose.

You obviously have to play your draft by ear, but it looks like the best bet this year may be RB/WR/RB in that order. Most of my mocks have looked like that so far because if I wait until the 3rd for a WR, I'm stuck choosing between the Steve Smiths as my top option.

I'm thinking the same thing...plus there seems to be a bunch of value RBs found in the 7th and 8th rounds this year. Due to the popularity of RBBC, there are more RBs in inventory. Untypically deep draft for this position.

As far as I'm concerned...the owners taking QB or WR with their 6th through 8th picks may be screwed when it comes to RB availability with their 2nd round pick.

Scenario after scenario and I keep seeing 9th overall being the traditional RB/RB spot with SJAX or Matthews pairing up with either DeAngelo or Mendenhall. Not a bad outcome, here.

Assuming the top 5 spots go to RBs...it may be impossible for them to go RB with their second picks; especially with attractive WRs available like Roddy, Austin, CJ and Marshall.

I remember back in the day when WR/WR was an alternative drafting at 11th or 12th. The idea was that you would lock up the league's top 2 WRs thus diminishing everyone else's returns at WR. Not sure how often it is used now, especially with Moss and Andre going so early in the round.

Another antiquated strategy was RB/RB/RB. No chance that ever happens again with the way RBs split carries these days. It was a solid strategy 5-6 years ago...

I wouldn't completely throw out RB/RB/RB. I've had a couple mocks open up with Turner/Gore, Benson, Thomas/Grant. It's really hard to turn that down, even if just for trade value. If I don't like the WR value in the 2nd/3rd, I'm seriously looking at that route.

On the WR/WR in the 12 spot, a buddy did that 2 or 3 years ago with Moss/TO then turned around and went RB/RB in 3/4 round. Ended up winning the league.

If your league is trade-happy, then I'd consider that RB/RB/RB hypothetical. Trades don't seem to happen very often in my leagues and I'd be nervous that I'd have no takers. I'd hate to have my 3rd rounder sitting pine for many games...

This season, WR/WR is only manageable if you can get AJ and Moss...and that is all but impossible unless andre falls to 7th or 8th...and Moss manages to slip to early 2nd round. I guess that is possible if your league is QB happy and Brees, Manning and Rodgers go early.

Watching Mike & Mike this morning and ESPN's FF advisor is downgrading Reggie Wayne (diminishing stats over past 3 years) and Fitzgerald (no good QBs in ARI). I'm starting to agree with this...and I'm hoping other owners take them too high in the early 2nd allowing better options to fall to me.