The Draft Position/Playoff Possibility thread Week 13

[CNYSkinFan]

Ok, what the hell is going on here. My job was supposed to be simple, I thought the hopes of a playoff were gone and I was going to for funs sake do the normal permutations for draft permutations. but no, the Redskisn had to win, the Giants had to lose and I look at the nfc standings and see we are just two places out of the playoffs with 5 games to go. Yet we are also in the mix for a top Draft spot. what's a masochist like myself to do. Well I guess I could leave well enough alone, but I won't. Because I refuse to root for the Redskins to lose the only logical thing is to hope that if they do ruin their draft spots by winning it means a playoff berth, as unlikely as it may be. So I am giving you both possibilities this week.

Draft Positioning

As we know the Draft position tiebreaker is by Strength of Schedule this is an ever moving target as outcomes each week change the SOS. With 5 weeks out the only certainty is to look at what the SOS is now, for now, until we get closer, I am using the espn rankings which i believe only takes into accoutn previous opponents record and not future opponent records. Now GBB North report takes into account future opponent records, and they have us faring better. You can check them out here

Here is where we stand according to ESPN

1. Indianapolis 0-11 SOS .512
2. St. Louis 2-9 SOS .529
3. Minnesota 2-9 SOS .570
4. Carolina 3-8 SOS .488
5. Miami 3-8 SOS .512
6. Jacksonville 3-8 SOS .545
7. Arizona 4-7 SOS .430
8. Washington 4-7 SOS .446
9. Kansas City 4-7 SOS .446
10. Cleveland 4-7 SOS .463
11. San Diego 4-7 SOS .529
12. Philadelphia 4-7 SOS .537
13. Seattle 4-7 SOS .545
14. Tampa 4-7 SOS ..603
15. Buffalo 5-6 SOS .512

(I used the gbr datat as the tiebreaker between kc and dc)

So there is a big danger of two more wins and we are picking way out of the top ten.

Playoff Positioning
What? Playoffs? Have I gone nuts? Yes, being a Redskins fan is proof of insanity. However, right now the lowly redskins at 4-7 are only 2 positions out of the last playoff spot. Is it crazy, yes. Have we had two teams in the past play lights out and win 5 games to end the season, the answer to that is also yes. and a 9-7 team into the playoffs this year is an outside chance at best, but it is still a chance, so what the hell.

NFC Playoff Standings

NFC North Green Bay Packers 11-0
NFC West San Francisco 9-2
NFC South New Orleans 8-3
NFC East Dallas Cowboys 7-4

Wild Card Chicago 7-4, Atlanta 7-4

Bubble NY Detroit 7-4 Giants 6-5

Need a Miracle Philadelphia, Washington, Seattle, AZ all at 4-7

Now at first this seems impossible, but consider the case of the Chicago Bears, a qb less team, could have a free fall. And the Giants could be overcome by a 4-7 team who catches fire. Its possible is all I am saying. And since it only makes a difference in one matchup this week (besides ours of course) lets make the most of a win and/or a loss

The Matchups

Philadelphia @ Seattle Both have a better SOS then us so a loss by either is fine. Seattle holds a tie breaker on us h2h for playoff indications and we get another shot at Philadelphia. Either team winning raises our SOS, but Philly winning raises it potentially twice. So for the playoffs Go Eagles For the draft Go Seahawks.

Oakland @ Miami No playoff implications here so straight draft positioning. Miami picking ahead of us is bad, very bad. Go Dolphins.

Tennesee @ Buffalo No playoff implications here so straight draftpositioning. Last thing we need is nother team in the mix for a good draft position. Go Bills!

Kansas City @ Chicago. If the BEars lose out a WC spot opens up, more importantly we want KC to lose for draft position. So Go Chiefs!!

Denver @ Minnesota. Only Jesus can help us catch the Vikings, unfortunately he plays for Denver. Here is hoping that Tebow is tested by good this Sunday. Go Vikings!

Atlanta @ Houston. Just for the heck of it, we need another team to fall down as well as Chicago. Go Texans!

Carolina @ Tampa Bay. While Carolina is set at qb (so is Tampa Btw) we don't want them to be a trade partner with anyone moving above us. Go Panthers!

Ind @ NE. I am willing to concede the top spot to Indy, but while I am here. Go Colts!

Dallas @ Arizona. Another perfect marriage. I hate the cowboys and we need AZ to lose. Also since we play Dallas twice this lowers our SOS. Go Cardinals!

Green Bay @ NY Giants. Watching the Giants lose will also get us one step closer to the playoffs, lower our SOS, and shut up Mercury Morris. All reasons to so Go Packers!

St. Louis at San Francisco. The 49ers should start to rest starters for the playoffs now lol. Go Rams!

Detroit @ New Orleans A loss by Detroit will not only help our playoff chances but also weaken our SOS which helps our draft positioning Go Saints

San Diego at Jacksonville. This is a coin flip. There is a chance though SD can trade Rivers and start a rebuild with a new coach, but a very very small chance. Also A Chance that Jags decide to move on from Gabbert when they get a new coach. Well I hate Norv turner so Go Jags!

That is it...Let those permutations fly!

[hogs86]

I am feeling you brother. The funny thing about this if Gano would have made that FG vs dallas we would only be one game back.

[CNYSkinFan]

Factoring in a late season run might mean more rex/beck next year and I find it hard rooting for the Redskisn to win, but I just cant root for them to lose

[DUCKIN_TACKLERS]

Originally Posted by CNYSkinFan

Factoring in a late season run might mean more rex/beck next year and I find it hard rooting for the Redskisn to win, but I just cant root for them to lose

Go Oakland? Think that was a typo. Dear god 2 games out how does this happen? I am still thinking draft position. The loss to Seatle all but gaurenteed that Luck (Indy) and Barkley (Seattle) will be gone. Also with the Cap implications QB's are going to start getting drafted way higher then in years past. We need a QB of the future. Cant root against my team but I admit I wont hate it if we lose. If not we may have to mortage draft picks to St. Louis for the 2nd QB or we could be stuck with the 3rd best QB off the board. Not good.

[CNYSkinFan]

Originally Posted by DUCKIN_TACKLERS

Go Oakland? Think that was a typo. Dear god 2 games out how does this happen? I am still thinking draft position. The loss to Seatle all but gaurenteed that Luck (Indy) and Barkley (Seattle) will be gone. Also with the Cap implications QB's are going to start getting drafted way higher then in years past. We need a QB of the future. Cant root against my team but I admit I wont hate it if we lose. If not we may have to mortage draft picks to St. Louis for the 2nd QB or we could be stuck with the 3rd best QB off the board. Not good.

Meant Dolphins. We arent two games out, we are three, but we are two positions out which means less teams have to lose if we win out. I can see Giants losing two more, and Chicago may not win another game because of Cutler.

All I am saying is its possible (cue dumb and dumber clips)

[SkinsfaninNJ]

Awesome post CNY.

[shally]

Originally Posted by CNYSkinFan

Factoring in a late season run might mean more rex/beck next year and I find it hard rooting for the Redskisn to win, but I just cant root for them to lose

Rex is coming back next year.. that is carved in stone.. one can only hope it is strictly for the purpose of mentoring the next great Redskin QB...

[cal_junior]

Originally Posted by shally

Rex is coming back next year.. that is carved in stone.. one can only hope it is strictly for the purpose of mentoring the next great Redskin QB...

And I'm okay with Rex coming back provided we have used a top-10 (preferably top-5) pick on another QB.

I don't mind Rex as a back-up, just so long as there is a clear No. 1 ahead of him on the roster.

[shally]

Originally Posted by cal_junior

And I'm okay with Rex coming back provided we have used a top-10 (preferably top-5) pick on another QB.

I don't mind Rex as a back-up, just so long as there is a clear No. 1 ahead of him on the roster.

it is not realistic to expect that ANY rookie will start for Shanahan until the middle of the year at the earliest .. this would especially be true if the roster continues to improve and we are actually winning games under Rex..

[OCSKINSFAN]

Originally Posted by hogs86

I am feeling you brother. The funny thing about this if Gano would have made that FG vs dallas we would only be one game back.

Actually, the Redskins could/should have won both Dallas games. Amazingly, if so, Skins would be tied for 1st in the East with the Giants at 6-5 and with the Cowboys at 5-6.

[BigCountry]

Originally Posted by OCSKINSFAN

Actually, the Redskins could/should have won both Dallas games. Amazingly, if so, Skins would be tied for 1st in the East with the Giants at 6-5 and with the Cowboys at 5-6.

Who says the defense doesn't take its usual dump in a critical situation in Dallas and allow a TD even if we were up 19-15.

[guess88]

I guess the question now is what we'll trade to move up some spots? And if Shanny does end up trading, which QB does he target?

[shally]

Originally Posted by guess88

I guess the question now is what we'll trade to move up some spots? And if Shanny does end up trading, which QB does he target?

depends who comes out.. RGIII and Barkley could return or in Griffin's case, try for the Olympics

[Nomad]

Another win, we'll probably be out of running for Barkley or RGIII and be stuck with lower tier QBs.

Man, the Skins always seem to find a way to hooch it.

[cal_junior]

Originally Posted by Nomad

Another win, we'll probably be out of running for Barkley or RGIII and be stuck with lower tier QBs.

Man, the Skins always seem to find a way to hooch it.

I think you're right. At 5-11 we may have to trade up with somebody who already has a QB to get Barkley or Griffin. I'm fine with doing that, mind you, but you never know if you'll get a dance partner or how expensive it will be.