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  #136  
Old 03-21-2007, 12:10 AM
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Originally Posted by danny's stogie
I found this great long post on another message board while looking for additional past 40 times by a chiefs fan about there being no standarization of how the times are calculated. I'm trying to find it now, but I'm having no luck, although I might have bookmarked it on my office comp. Akh, did you save a link to it?

Anyways, I remember one thing being that they've changed the timing mechanism form that starts when the gun goes off to one that automatically calculates a runner's natural reaction time upon hearing the gun and subtracting that from the overall time.
That's bunk, man. They shouldn't do that. Reaction times can be different. They should just go with whatever the guy runs. Sheesh.
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Originally Posted by Skins7ny
The one disappointment of the off-season housecleaning that brought Allen and Shanahan here is that they didn't part ways with Larry Michael as well. He is a prominent and unavoidable symbol of the horrible way Snyder and Cerrator ran this team in the past. Moving on to a new era of Redskins football, on and off the field, should have meant severing ties with him as well.
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  #137  
Old 03-21-2007, 12:20 AM
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Originally Posted by BurgundyNGold
That's bunk, man. They shouldn't do that. Reaction times can be different. They should just go with whatever the guy runs. Sheesh.
...and I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the whole thing with pro days is that they use hand timers and they run on legit track and field surfaces rather than a fast indoor turf like they have in Indy. Scouts usually add a little bit to times in these cases, but what we as fans hear about are just the raw numbers, no discussion at all about the discrepencies between the surfaces and timing devices used. Considering this and the fact that the combine is now a relatively large, televised event I see no reason why the NFL wouldn't have incentive to bulk up the times a bit for the viewing audience and in order to give the top talent a reason to run at Indy.
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  #138  
Old 03-21-2007, 12:24 AM
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Originally Posted by danny's stogie
...and I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the whole thing with pro days is that they use hand timers and they run on legit track and field surfaces rather than a fast indoor turf like they have in Indy. Scouts usually add a little bit to times in these cases, but what we as fans hear about are just the raw numbers, no discussion at all about the discrepencies between the surfaces and timing devices used. Considering this and the fact that the combine is now a relatively large, televised event I see no reason why the NFL wouldn't have incentive to bulk up the times a bit for the viewing audience and in order to give the top talent a reason to run at Indy.
Adding the 2005 median to the 2006 and 2007 medians, and it starts to look like a speeding trend....

4.508 (2005)
4.493 (2006)
4.457 (2007)

It's getting faster. Not much faster, but faster nonetheless.
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Originally Posted by Skins7ny
The one disappointment of the off-season housecleaning that brought Allen and Shanahan here is that they didn't part ways with Larry Michael as well. He is a prominent and unavoidable symbol of the horrible way Snyder and Cerrator ran this team in the past. Moving on to a new era of Redskins football, on and off the field, should have meant severing ties with him as well.
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  #139  
Old 03-21-2007, 12:28 AM
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Originally Posted by BurgundyNGold
Adding the 2005 median to the 2006 and 2007 medians, and it starts to look like a speeding trend....

4.508 (2005)
4.493 (2006)
4.457 (2007)

It's getting faster. Not much faster, but faster nonetheless.
I don't know, a .05 difference is huge. That equates to roughly 5 or 6 players running in the 4.3s that wouldn't have otherwise done so.
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  #140  
Old 03-21-2007, 12:31 AM
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Originally Posted by danny's stogie
I don't know, a .05 difference is huge. That equates to roughly 5 or 6 players running in the 4.3s that wouldn't have otherwise done so.
True. I meant that year to year it doesn't seem like much, but you're correct about the fact that the cumulative value of 0.051 is starting to be pretty significant. The difference between a 4.36 and a 4.41 could be a couple of slots or a couple of rounds in the draft.
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Originally Posted by Skins7ny
The one disappointment of the off-season housecleaning that brought Allen and Shanahan here is that they didn't part ways with Larry Michael as well. He is a prominent and unavoidable symbol of the horrible way Snyder and Cerrator ran this team in the past. Moving on to a new era of Redskins football, on and off the field, should have meant severing ties with him as well.
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  #141  
Old 03-21-2007, 12:34 AM
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Originally Posted by BurgundyNGold
True. I meant that year to year it doesn't seem like much, but you're correct about the fact that the cumulative value of 0.051 is starting to be pretty significant. The difference between a 4.36 and a 4.41 could be a couple of slots or a couple of rounds in the draft.
It could be especially considering that WRs are the position (other than DBs) that are most subject to the scrutiny of 40 times. But I also think that scouts do some correction and normalization of results, but the real problem here is with fan perception and the mistake we make not taking these things into consideration when comparing times across years or even simply a different set of circumstances.
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  #142  
Old 03-21-2007, 01:13 AM
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Originally Posted by BurgundyNGold
Adding the 2005 median to the 2006 and 2007 medians, and it starts to look like a speeding trend....

4.508 (2005)
4.493 (2006)
4.457 (2007)

It's getting faster. Not much faster, but faster nonetheless.
Hey, I double checked my results for 2005 and I still get 4.512. I double checked the count and I'm good, I tab-delineated cut and paste direct from that post so it shouldn't have been a data entry problem. Do you want to give your numbers another run?
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  #143  
Old 03-21-2007, 08:53 AM
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Originally Posted by danny's stogie
I originally discussed the bounds when dj commented on how large .035 really is. http://hailredskins.com/vbforum/show...7&postcount=34. I never mention it in the article because I thought it was blatantly obvious that .035 is rather large when evaluating it in the context of a typical WRs' times. I never expected anyone to evaluate the difference in times relative to anything but a reasonable range of times. Taking the difference out of context and measuring it against something like how fast a bird flies is ridiculous, frankly.
Sorry if I'm ridiculous. Us "layman" aren't very good with big numbers and big thoughts.

Seriously...when you tell me the average mean time increased 0.035 seconds over '06, I'm not blocking out subjective ranges and running it through the flux capacitor. I see it for what it is; A a very small difference that is probably the same increase or decrease in 40 times over the past decade.

Let me ask you. Exactly how much time on average do you think NFL scouts deduct from Pro Day 40 times due to a "fast track"?
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  #144  
Old 03-21-2007, 09:04 AM
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Originally Posted by dj_stouty
Sorry if I'm ridiculous. Us "layman" aren't very good with big numbers and big thoughts.

Seriously...when you tell me the average mean time increased 0.035 seconds over '06, I'm not blocking out subjective ranges and running it through the flux capacitor. I see it for what it is; A a very small difference that is probably the same increase or decrease in 40 times over the past decade.

Let me ask you. Exactly how much time on average do you think NFL scouts deduct from Pro Day 40 times due to a "fast track"?
My apologies for offending. It's not about laymen or big thoughts, it's that not that I didn't think you understand, it's that I thought you were taking it out of context and posting pics of birds solely to mock the article.

I've read anything from .025 to .050 added on for hand timed runs.
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  #145  
Old 03-21-2007, 10:25 AM
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Originally Posted by danny's stogie
Hey, I double checked my results for 2005 and I still get 4.512. I double checked the count and I'm good, I tab-delineated cut and paste direct from that post so it shouldn't have been a data entry problem. Do you want to give your numbers another run?
Here's what I got:

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Originally Posted by Skins7ny
The one disappointment of the off-season housecleaning that brought Allen and Shanahan here is that they didn't part ways with Larry Michael as well. He is a prominent and unavoidable symbol of the horrible way Snyder and Cerrator ran this team in the past. Moving on to a new era of Redskins football, on and off the field, should have meant severing ties with him as well.
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  #146  
Old 03-21-2007, 10:37 AM
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Here's what I got:
I think you're missing 2 observations. I have 35 times and you have 33.
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  #147  
Old 03-22-2007, 01:12 AM
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Originally Posted by danny's stogie
I think you're missing 2 observations. I have 35 times and you have 33.
Which ones am I missing?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skins7ny
The one disappointment of the off-season housecleaning that brought Allen and Shanahan here is that they didn't part ways with Larry Michael as well. He is a prominent and unavoidable symbol of the horrible way Snyder and Cerrator ran this team in the past. Moving on to a new era of Redskins football, on and off the field, should have meant severing ties with him as well.
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  #148  
Old 03-22-2007, 09:37 AM
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Originally Posted by BurgundyNGold
Which ones am I missing?
Madison and Marshall, it looks like. If not them two of the other Ms.
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