hR' s ELECTORAL COLLEGE PROJECTIONS

[PennSkinsFan]

This should be fun to keep up with and see where polling is placing states at.
All state placements are based on the LATEST state polls we have posted here. As state polls change, we will change the state's alignment as well. Keep tabs you election gurus, we will update this a few times per week. Here is how we will award states to the respect campaigns:


7% point or Higher: Becomes a SOLID STATE

6% to 3%: Becomes a LEANING STATE

3% or Lower: These state will be placed in our BATTLEGROUND: TOO CLOSE TO CALL states

(The key to these designations for our Projections, is not one poll, but a consistency in polls. You may see one poll showing a different lead, but we will not switch states to different columns without a consistency of a few polls.)


Latest Updated Changes:
UPDATED as of 10/21/04 CHANGES ARE: Moving Maine from Battleground to Lean Kerry. Shifting Wisconsin back to Battleground




SOLID BUSH: Indiana (11), South Dakota (3), Alabama (9), Texas (34), Kentucky (8), Oklahoma (7), Georgia (15), Louisiana (9), Montana (3), Utah (5), Missip (6), Kansas (6), South Carolina (8), Idaho (4), Wyoming (3), Alaska (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Arizona (10),

LEAN BUSH: Virginia (13), West Virginia (5), Colorado (9), Missouri (11), North Carolina (15), Tennessee (11), Nevada (5),


SOLID KERRY: Massachuesetts (12), Rhoad Island (4), New York (31), Maryland (10), Illinois (21), California (55), Connecticut (7), Vermont (3), Hawaii (4), Washington DC (3), Delaware (3), Washington (11), Michigan (17),

LEAN KERRY: Minnesota (10), Oregon (7), New Jersey (15), Pennsylvania (21), Arkansas (6), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Maine (4),


BATTLEGROUND OR 'TOO CLOSE TO CALL': Iowa (7), Ohio (20), Florida (27), Wisconsin (10),




To date, electoral Votes (538 Total Electoral Votes, 270 Need to be ELECTED to the Office of the President): Updated 10/20/04


SOLID BUSH: 152 LEAN BUSH: 69 TOTAL: 221 (nc)
SOLID KERRY: 181 LEAN KERRY: 72 TOTAL: 253 (-4)
BATTLEGROUND: TOO CLOSE TO SIDE: TOTALS: 64 (+4)




Again, these are all based on state polls by legitimate media sources and professional public polling firms, and are posted in our Polling Thread here in this Forum. As those Polls change, we will flip the states around.

[higgybaby]

I think it would be cool to post the electoral votes thats up for grabs in each state as a poll is posted.

[PennSkinsFan]

Updated 6/28 with new polls and electoral votes. Higgy, you aks, we deliver!

[akhhorus]

and just in case you didnt know: a candidate needs 270 electorial college votes to win.

[SkinsKY]

Good thread PSF however the ultimate poll will be decided 10/31 in Landover! It will be interesting to see the shifts in polls as time progresses.

[PennSkinsFan]

Updated 6/30/04

[PennSkinsFan]

Updated 7/2

Moved Michigan from Battlegorund to Lean kerry

Moved Kansas from "No Polling Info" to Solid Bush

[PennSkinsFan]

Updated 7/7/04

[PennSkinsFan]

Originally Posted by PennSkinsFan

This should be fun to keep up with and see where polling is placing states at.

All state placements are based on the LATEST state polls we have posted here. As state polls change, we will change the state's alignment as well. Keep tabs you election gurus, we will update this a few times per week. Here is how we will award states to the respect campaigns:

6% point or Higher: Becomes a SOLID STATE

6% down to 3%: Awarded as a LEANING STATE

Anything Below 3%: BATTLEGROUND 'TOO CLOSE TO SIDE' STATE


We will update this often. UPDATED as of 7/8/04 - 7/8 changes: Moved Arizona from Solid Bush to Lean Bush


SOLID BUSH: Indiana (11), South Dakota (3), Alabama (9), Texas (34), Kentucky (8), Oklahoma (7), Georgia (15), Louisiana (9), Montana (3), Utah (5), Tennessee (11), Missip (6), Kansas (6), South Carolina (8), Idaho (4)

LEAN BUSH: Wisconsin (10), North Carolina (15), Colorado (9), West Virginia (5), Nevada (5), Arizona (10)


SOLID KERRY: Massachuesetts (12), Rhoad Island (4), New York (31), Maryland (10), Illinois ((21), California (55), Connecticut (7), New Jersey (15), Vermont (3), Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), Michigan (17)

LEAN KERRY: Arkansas (6), Minnesota (10), Ohio (20), and, New Hampshire (4), Maine (4),


BATTLEGROUND OR 'TOO CLOSE TO SIDE': Pennsylvania (21), Florida (27), Washington (11), Missouri (11), Virginia (13), Iowa (7)


To date, electoral Votes: (Updated 7/7/04)8

SOLID BUSH: 139 LEAN BUSH: 54
SOLID KERRY: 187 LEAN KERRY: 42
BATTLEGROUND: TOO CLOSE TO SIDE: 107
STATES WITH NO POLLING INFO YET: 24

Again, these are all based on state polls we have found and have posted right here. As those Polls change, we will flip the states around.

[Spence]

In some of these states we need to see new post-Edwards polls. For example, North Carolina might be a battleground state instead of a lean Bush state.

I'm still pretty confident Wisconsin and Washington will go for Kerry. Virginia will, in the end, go Republican. It hasn't voted for a Dem since 1964.

[PennSkinsFan]

Updated 7/8/04

All states have now been awarded based on normal trends and registration. Awarded were:

DC, Delaware, and Hawaii to KERRY SOLID

North Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming to BUSH SOLID.

That leave as of 7/8/04, according to actual polls, 90 Electoral Votes as Battleground/Tossup. Above states as hR has it NOW!

[Spence]

Two new state polls:
Michigan: Kerry 50%, Bush 43%, Nader 2% (American Research Group)
New Mexico: Kerry 49%, Bush 42%, Nader 3% (American Research Group)

[PennSkinsFan]

uPDATED 7/11/04

[PennSkinsFan]

Seems liek hR is close to an ex[erts polling firm, American Research Group. They have the Electoral count right now at Kerry 247 Bush 203, we at hR have it at Kerry 244 Bush 220.

[PennSkinsFan]

Lots of Polls out today, revisions made, and new electoral numbers posted.