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  #16  
Old 01-26-2010, 03:35 PM
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Originally Posted by shally View Post
some food for thought:

in Shanahan's entire draft history the ONLY 3 times he has used a first or second rounder on the offensive line were:

08- 1 Clady--OT---- phenomenal player. everything you could want in a 10 year player to anchor a line

03- 1 Foster- OT-- opposite.. totally frustrating player who underperformed despite numerous chances..near bust (i am being charitable)

99 - 2 Lennie Friedman C/G-- career backup. still in the NFL. smart but with very limited ability. future coach ???

that's it.. tells me that the odds of Shanahan going for Okung/Balaga/Davis or anyone else for the O line arent that high at #4... he takes guys who are athletic and smart and molds them into a unit that is far better than they are as individuals
I guess we'll be calling the Saints about Brown or Bushrod then.
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  #17  
Old 01-26-2010, 03:39 PM
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there is absolutely, no problem fixing an offensive line without using all premium picks.. team after team (Giants/Ravens/Jets/Eagles/Cowboys)
has gone this route successfully.. there is no reason why Shanahan cant.
Truth.

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on the other hand, unless you are very astute, or very lucky, the chances of finding an elite QB diminish quickly after the first round.. there are busts, to be sure, but that is where you find them.
Here's where you are spot on about how ugly it gets. In the last 10 years, here are the QB's selected in the 2nd round that had more than a walkthrough in the league (using the 2nd round simply because of how that relates to the Skins' option this draft). I'll leave it up to you to judge their relatvie impact:
'99- Shaun King
'00-none
'01-Drew Bress, Quincy Carter, M. Tuiasosopo
'02, '03, '04, 05-none
'06-Kellen Clemens, Tavaris Jackson
'07-Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton
'08-Brian Brohme, Chade Henne
'09-Pat White

In ten years you had one superstar (Brees), two potentially good players (Kolb, Henne) and the rest journeyman to diasters. In that same time frame, the first round produced the likes of:
McNabb, Culpepper, Pennington, Vick, Palmer, Eli, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Campbell (zing!),Young, Cutler, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford and Sanchez. History suggest, if you want a QB you get him early.


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if you to make the case that you dont need a franchise qb, and want to build defense and running game first, that is certainly an alternative way to do things, but no single player can upgrade a team the way a QB can
True and if you think that player is there, you take him.

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hopefully, next year, we will be selecting (barring trades) in the middle or latter portions of each round, and the chances of drafting an elite QB will presumably diminish. so, this is the year we will have the best shot at one.. the question remains, is there one out there at #4 ? if there is, all things equal, you take the elite QB prospect over the elite Tackle prospect.. we have the rest of the draft and free agency to get the line fixed
Exactly. Nice post Shally.
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  #18  
Old 01-26-2010, 03:41 PM
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I guess we'll be calling the Saints about Brown or Bushrod then.
lol

we wont need to..Both Boothe and Whimper spot- started for the Giants without missing a beat..Bridges (whom we cut) started all year for the Cards.. he wasnt all pro, but he was better than anyone WE had playing Tackle for us all year..

there will be guys out there who could play for us in free agency
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  #19  
Old 01-26-2010, 03:45 PM
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lol

we wont need to..Both Boothe and Whimper spot- started for the Giants without missing a beat..Bridges (whom we cut) started all year for the Cards.. he wasnt all pro, but he was better than anyone WE had playing Tackle for us all year..

there will be guys out there who could play for us in free agency
Bushrod then. He's a RFA. I'd give them Landry for him and a pick.
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  #20  
Old 01-26-2010, 03:50 PM
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Bushrod then. He's a RFA. I'd give them Landry for him and a pick.
send Landry back to the Bayou ??? LOL

then pick up Ryan Clark and pair him with Horton or Moore and we are solid back there..
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  #21  
Old 01-26-2010, 03:54 PM
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Originally Posted by shally View Post
there is absolutely, no problem fixing an offensive line without using all premium picks.. team after team (Giants/Ravens/Jets/Eagles/Cowboys)
has gone this route successfully.. there is no reason why Shanahan cant.

on the other hand, unless you are very astute, or very lucky, the chances of finding an elite QB diminish quickly after the first round.. there are busts, to be sure, but that is where you find them.
This is pretty much my line of thinking. If there is a QB at 4 that Shanny and Allen deem worthy then I think they should pull the trigger. Who knows when they will have such a high pick again. Plus it is much harder to find top tier NFL QBs after the 1st round compared to other positions.

I think a solid line can be built in rounds 2+. Actually if you look at the OLs of the recent super bowl winners you will find very few high 1st round draft picks on those lines, if any. Off the top of my head Ogden (4) is by far the highest OL pick of the recent SB winners and the Ravens didn't win all that recently. For losing SB teams Walter Jones was the 6th pick and Levi Brown the 5th. Faneca was the 26th pick but that is moot since no OG will be selected 4th overall.

Edit: 2 more 1st round OT from SB winners were Orlando Pace (1) and Tarik Glenn (19).

More 1st round OTs from recent losing SB teams.
John Tait (14)
Tra Thomas (11)

Still not too many top 10 OT picks on SB teams over past 10 years and Pace was basically as much of a lock as there has been at OT for a while.
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  #22  
Old 01-26-2010, 06:08 PM
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I don't care how talented is, you don't use the number 4 overall pick on a guy who missed almost all of the 2009 season with injuries. That's just too much of a risk. I really hope we trade down and get some quality players later, but it's hard to trade out of a top 5 pick.
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  #23  
Old 01-26-2010, 07:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shally View Post

if you to make the case that you dont need a franchise qb, and want to build defense and running game first, that is certainly an alternative way to do things, but no single player can upgrade a team the way a QB can
I agree, its been apparent recently and especially the last 2-3 weeks this is a QB league. We've seen Manning, Brees, Rivers & sometimes Favre too, throw successfully into tight coverage and score at will. (I believe if anyone other than Norv had been leading the chargers Rivers would've have been playing this past weekend too).

I was against drafting a QB with the 4th pick but not anymore. If Shanahan feels like he has his guy he shouldnt hesitate and we shouldn't complain.
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  #24  
Old 01-26-2010, 10:20 PM
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If we select Bradford I will be extremely happy. I never thought this team would have a chance to select this kid and now that were in a position to I think it would be crazy if we chose to pass on him.
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  #25  
Old 01-27-2010, 07:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moe View Post
Here's where you are spot on about how ugly it gets. In the last 10 years, here are the QB's selected in the 2nd round that had more than a walkthrough in the league (using the 2nd round simply because of how that relates to the Skins' option this draft). I'll leave it up to you to judge their relatvie impact:
'99- Shaun King
'00-none
'01-Drew Bress, Quincy Carter, M. Tuiasosopo
'02, '03, '04, 05-none
'06-Kellen Clemens, Tavaris Jackson
'07-Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton
'08-Brian Brohme, Chade Henne
'09-Pat White

In ten years you had one superstar (Brees), two potentially good players (Kolb, Henne) and the rest journeyman to diasters. In that same time frame, the first round produced the likes of:
McNabb, Culpepper, Pennington, Vick, Palmer, Eli, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Campbell (zing!),Young, Cutler, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford and Sanchez. History suggest, if you want a QB you get him early.

yea, but if you're gonna play that game you can also point out that
Joe Montana (3rd round), Tom Brady (6th), Mark Bulger (6th), Matt Hasselbeck (6th), Trent Green (8th), Steve Young, Mark Brunell (5th), Brett Favre (2nd) were drafted outside the 1st round while Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Heath Schuler, Rick Mirer, Jim Drukenmiller, David Klinger, Dan McGuire, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, and Matt Leinart were all taken in (or near the top of) the 1st round.
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  #26  
Old 01-27-2010, 08:19 AM
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Originally Posted by ClubSandwichGuy View Post
I don't care how talented is, you don't use the number 4 overall pick on a guy who missed almost all of the 2009 season with injuries. That's just too much of a risk. I really hope we trade down and get some quality players later, but it's hard to trade out of a top 5 pick.
his injury is deemed to not be degenerative and he will have been checked out by the top doc in the world when it comes to this area of medicine. not choosing a player that you think is that talented because he got injured this year is like not buying a house you love because it has a dead bush and bad paint.
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  #27  
Old 01-27-2010, 09:27 AM
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Originally Posted by whiskeytown View Post
yea, but if you're gonna play that game you can also point out that
Joe Montana (3rd round), Tom Brady (6th), Mark Bulger (6th), Matt Hasselbeck (6th), Trent Green (8th), Steve Young, Mark Brunell (5th), Brett Favre (2nd) were drafted outside the 1st round while Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Heath Schuler, Rick Mirer, Jim Drukenmiller, David Klinger, Dan McGuire, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, and Matt Leinart were all taken in (or near the top of) the 1st round.
The risks are a given and not specific to the QB position, but the number of late round QB's that become franchise players is few and far between. Even in your list, it took Hasselbeck, Young, Green and Favre several years and more than one team before they became the players that they did. I also qualified my list to the second round to highlight the delta between it and the first round, since that's the likely area wherein they try to address the QB spot.
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  #28  
Old 01-27-2010, 10:02 AM
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one hit can cause a qb to look fragile;
Brees
Brady
Palmer
these players all were put out for a year because of 1 hit yet I wouldn't consider any of them fragile.

Brady 6-4, 225
Brees 6-0, 209
Palmer 6-5, 235
Bradford 64, 223

Doesn't seem to be to much difference there, expecially since most players bulk up in there first year in the pros

Also he may not have been sacked very much but he also had 73 rush attempts in his previous 2 years to getting hurt and I am sure he took a hit or two there.

He is a player that injured his shoulder and tried to come back to early simple as that it doesn't make him like glass. It makes him unlucky for one play and a competitor who wanted back on the field to early.

There is no reason if his shoulder checks out we shouldn't take a player that a year ago would have been the #1 pick at #4 this year.
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  #29  
Old 01-27-2010, 02:57 PM
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Originally Posted by ClubSandwichGuy View Post
I don't care how talented is, you don't use the number 4 overall pick on a guy who missed almost all of the 2009 season with injuries. That's just too much of a risk. I really hope we trade down and get some quality players later, but it's hard to trade out of a top 5 pick.
Trading out of the top 5 anymore is almost impossible unless there is a QB there that someone is just dying to have. Too much money involved in signing those guys. I agree with you for sure.

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his injury is deemed to not be degenerative and he will have been checked out by the top doc in the world when it comes to this area of medicine. not choosing a player that you think is that talented because he got injured this year is like not buying a house you love because it has a dead bush and bad paint.


Its not just that he was injuried this year. It's the fact that the question, coming into this year, would be how well his frame would hold up behind an average, or below, O-Line. This was the first year where you went into the season knowing he was going to get knocked around cause the O-Line play would be average, at best. His first couple of years at OU he rarely got hit cause his O-Line was awesome.

Those questions were quickly answered and the answer was...not well. They didn't even make through the first half of the first game with that O-Line before he was knocked out of the game and out for multiple games.

Then he gets back for Texas, and I know everyone says he rushed back and blah blah. It's the time frame they figured for him so he didn't rush back he got back in the time frame they figured for the injury and what happens? Didn't even get a quarter into his second start of the year before he was knocked out again.

This, to me, is a HUGE red flag for a QB who you're picking to be your franchise player, giving top 5 money to, and putting behind an O-Line that, at this point, is below average. This kid isn't going to last 4 games behind the current O-Line for the Skins and unless they make MASSIVE whole sale changes across that line, and hit on them all, he's going to likely be dead before the season is a month old.

The kid just can't take hits. It was always the question about him, even for OU fans, cause of his frame and such.

Now maybe he changes that in the pros. It's possible, anything is possible, but that's an awful lot of risk to hope he makes those changes if you're giving him top 5 money.

And I realise that every player you pick is a risk, especially that high, but QB is the one position, especially that high given the money you're going to have to give, that you really just can't afford to have a huge miss on.
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  #30  
Old 01-27-2010, 03:21 PM
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Trading out of the top 5 anymore is almost impossible unless there is a QB there that someone is just dying to have. Too much money involved in signing those guys. I agree with you for sure.





Its not just that he was injuried this year. It's the fact that the question, coming into this year, would be how well his frame would hold up behind an average, or below, O-Line. This was the first year where you went into the season knowing he was going to get knocked around cause the O-Line play would be average, at best. His first couple of years at OU he rarely got hit cause his O-Line was awesome.

Those questions were quickly answered and the answer was...not well. They didn't even make through the first half of the first game with that O-Line before he was knocked out of the game and out for multiple games.

Then he gets back for Texas, and I know everyone says he rushed back and blah blah. It's the time frame they figured for him so he didn't rush back he got back in the time frame they figured for the injury and what happens? Didn't even get a quarter into his second start of the year before he was knocked out again.

This, to me, is a HUGE red flag for a QB who you're picking to be your franchise player, giving top 5 money to, and putting behind an O-Line that, at this point, is below average. This kid isn't going to last 4 games behind the current O-Line for the Skins and unless they make MASSIVE whole sale changes across that line, and hit on them all, he's going to likely be dead before the season is a month old.

The kid just can't take hits. It was always the question about him, even for OU fans, cause of his frame and such.

Now maybe he changes that in the pros. It's possible, anything is possible, but that's an awful lot of risk to hope he makes those changes if you're giving him top 5 money.

And I realise that every player you pick is a risk, especially that high, but QB is the one position, especially that high given the money you're going to have to give, that you really just can't afford to have a huge miss on.
what is it about his frame that you think is such a risk? his weight/height ratio compares very well to other NFL QBs (see the post above yours) and he's still going to get bigger. i live here in Texas and watch big 12 football (wreck 'em!) and have never thought of him as small or fragile.

as for the time frame to return, they brought him back on the best-case scenario of a 3-6 week time frame and it doesn't take much to realize why they brought him back then. they wanted a cream puff game against Baylor to knock the rust off for Texas. he came back too early, plain and simple.

Last edited by fent : 01-27-2010 at 03:25 PM.
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