2012 Presidential race

[guess88]

Originally Posted by shally

Today's Gallup poll has Obama's approval rating at 43 % with a 50 % disapproval rating

With those kind of numbers, this election is still up for grabs.. Gas prices are on the rise again and people are, for the most part, not happy with the direction we are heading--and that does not even take into account the taxes that will begin next year to pay for Obamacare

Yeah, nobody's won anything yet and there's still a ton of time to sway voters. Anytime there's a lul in the race, I think both parties are just getting in gear before the big storm. Hopefully it won't continue down the negative path, or else we might hate whoever's in office just cause we're used to hearing so many bad things.

Originally Posted by shally

I think the debates will be absolutely critical for this election..If Romney and Ryan can present a "CREDIBLE" economic alternative to Obama then it will simply come down to turnout of the base

Agreed on the debates. I think a key part of the Ryan pick is that he'll be able to debate finances off the cuff against Biden. Whether the plan is good or not, just showing his knowledge of the subject will probably be good enough. If the VP debates come down to finances (which it probably will), I don't think Biden has much of a chance in impressing the public.

As for Romney vs Obama in the debates, that's a point of struggle for the Republican ticket. Romney is horrible off script, and Obama will bait him into a discussion, which should produce even more news worthy gaffes. Hence the Ryan pick to balance the Republican ticket. Obama wins Presidential debate, Ryan owns VP debates.

[shally]

Originally Posted by akhhorus

What does it say about Romney that Obama's approval numbers are lukewarm, yet his national lead(and swing state leads) keep expanding?



Hard to explain a full economic plan/policy in 90 second sound bites. And I don't see Romney smoking the debates to the point where it matters. Imo, Romney needs Obama to have a major gaffe or scandal which tarnishes his likeability with voters.

what it says is that Romney has yet to make his case to the american public.. this typically doesnt even begin to happen until after Labor Day.. if he is still trailing badly, then I think he has a major problem

as i recall, Carter was well ahead of Reagan about this time..

the point is that the nation is clearly struggling and Obama has little to run on..That is why he has spent the past months attempting to trash Romney..I give his advisors credit, they have done a solid job keeping Romney on the defensive .. is a negative campaign enough ? sure it is many times.. Look what GWHB did to Dukakis..

in answer to your second point, I dont think anyone can expect Obama to make a major mistake .. he is very very skilled.. but right now, he is a known quantity and there is a lot of uncertainty in the middle third of the opulation as to whether they want his team for another 4 years. that is why Romney needs to make his case forcefully that he is the better option for the next 4 years.. if he can, Obama could go down

when it comes down to it, I think that adding Ryan to the ticket will fully get the base energized.. the question will be:

1. can Obama get the historic boost he got last time from minorities and young people ?

2. can Romney make enough inroads into independent women and minorities to get him over the top ?

i will make this prediction: Romney will get historically high percentages of Jewish voters for a GOP candidate.. Obama has burned a lot of bridges because of his actions towards Israel the last 4 years

[akhhorus]

Originally Posted by shally

what it says is that Romney has yet to make his case to the american public.. this typically doesnt even begin to happen until after Labor Day.. if he is still trailing badly, then I think he has a major problem

the point is that the nation is clearly struggling and Obama has little to run on..That is why he has spent the past months attempting to trash Romney..I give his advisors credit, they have done a solid job keeping Romney on the defensive .. is a negative campaign enough ? sure it is many times.. Look what GWHB did to Dukakis..

As Charlie Cook put it weeks ago: Romney's lost the race to define himself. He let Obama define him, fair or not. Yes, races don't really fully begin by now, but with a challenger/incumbent one people are more interested earlier, especially with so many perceived problems facing the nation. Imo Romney's been defined in the same way Kerry was by this point in the election. By the time Kerry showed up in his stupid DUKW boat for the convention, he was defined by Dubya. I think Obama's done the same with Romney.

Originally Posted by shally

as i recall, Carter was well ahead of Reagan about this time..

Nope: Polling Graph

Carter got close at times late, but didn't lead after memorial day and was down about 20% at this point in 1980.

Originally Posted by shally

in answer to your second point, I dont think anyone can expect Obama to make a major mistake .. he is very very skilled.. but right now, he is a known quantity and there is a lot of uncertainty in the middle third of the opulation as to whether they want his team for another 4 years. that is why Romney needs to make his case forcefully that he is the better option for the next 4 years.. if he can, Obama could go down

Thats what he was supposed to be doing during the summer: put out a taxation plan, a spending plan and an economic plan simple enough for even the dumbest voter to understand(and that would draw some sort of bipartisan support for cover). I don't think Romney's really fully capable of making a forceful argument. He'll pick on the sides and hope that someone else will do it for him. Thats the Romney we saw in 2008 and so far in 2012.

Originally Posted by shally

2. can Romney make enough inroads into independent women and minorities to get him over the top ?

Romney's bleeding female voters, even working class and right leaning ones thanks to the Congressional GOP's so called "war on women" earlier in the year. As for Minorities: Romney's only down 40% with latinos lol.

Originally Posted by shally

i will make this prediction: Romney will get historically high percentages of Jewish voters for a GOP candidate.. Obama has burned a lot of bridges because of his actions towards Israel the last 4 years

Obama was at about 62% of the Jewish vote in the summer of 2008, Gallup's last poll on it in June had him with 64%. I think Obama burned a lot of bridges with Bibi, mostly because no one thought he(Bibi) would last this long, which was a fair assumption considering how he took power in 2008. I don't think he's burned a lot of bridges with American Jews, who are far more moderate on the Palestinians, bombing Iran and all the other issues that Bibi and the Israeli right are big on.

[shally]

Originally Posted by akhhorus

As Charlie Cook put it weeks ago: Romney's lost the race to define himself. He let Obama define him, fair or not. Yes, races don't really fully begin by now, but with a challenger/incumbent one people are more interested earlier, especially with so many perceived problems facing the nation. Imo Romney's been defined in the same way Kerry was by this point in the election. By the time Kerry showed up in his stupid DUKW boat for the convention, he was defined by Dubya. I think Obama's done the same with Romney.



Nope: Polling Graph

Carter got close at times late, but didn't lead after memorial day and was down about 20% at this point in 1980.



Thats what he was supposed to be doing during the summer: put out a taxation plan, a spending plan and an economic plan simple enough for even the dumbest voter to understand(and that would draw some sort of bipartisan support for cover). I don't think Romney's really fully capable of making a forceful argument. He'll pick on the sides and hope that someone else will do it for him. Thats the Romney we saw in 2008 and so far in 2012.





Romney's bleeding female voters, even working class and right leaning ones thanks to the Congressional GOP's so called "war on women" earlier in the year. As for Minorities: Romney's only down 40% with latinos lol.



Obama was at about 62% of the Jewish vote in the summer of 2008, Gallup's last poll on it in June had him with 64%. I think Obama burned a lot of bridges with Bibi, mostly because no one thought he(Bibi) would last this long, which was a fair assumption considering how he took power in 2008. I don't think he's burned a lot of bridges with American Jews, who are far more moderate on the Palestinians, bombing Iran and all the other issues that Bibi and the Israeli right are big on.

nope.
nope.
nope.

i dont think you are in touch with what the perception of Obama is among the Jewish community. I dont have a sample other than what my family and friends are, and most of them are dyed in the wool liberals from way back.. most feel that Obama is anti-Israel, and anti Semitic at his core. none of them will support him financially or vote for him in the fall.. some will sit on the hands because they simply cannot vote for a Republican, most will vote for Romney. Many feel about him the same way they felt about Carter- betrayed

[cal_junior]

Originally Posted by shally

most feel that Obama is ... anti Semitic at his core.

Wow, "at his core"? What reason do they give for that?

[Ibleedburgundy]

Originally Posted by shally

i dont think you are in touch with what the perception of Obama is among the Jewish community. I dont have a sample other than what my family and friends are, and most of them are dyed in the wool liberals from way back.. most feel that Obama is anti-Israel, and anti Semitic at his core. none of them will support him financially or vote for him in the fall.. some will sit on the hands because they simply cannot vote for a Republican, most will vote for Romney. Many feel about him the same way they felt about Carter- betrayed

That's odd. My wife's family is jewish and they love Obama.

Anyway:

President Obama's support has dropped by double digits among Jewish voters from 2008, but he still earns more than double the support of challenger Mitt Romney among American Jews, according to a new survey from Gallup.

The president is the choice of 64 percent of Jewish registered voters, versus 29 percent for Romney.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefi...-jewish-voters

[redskin_rich]

Originally Posted by shally

nope.
nope.
nope.

i dont think you are in touch with what the perception of Obama is among the Jewish community. I dont have a sample other than what my family and friends are, and most of them are dyed in the wool liberals from way back.. most feel that Obama is anti-Israel, and anti Semitic at his core. none of them will support him financially or vote for him in the fall.. some will sit on the hands because they simply cannot vote for a Republican, most will vote for Romney. Many feel about him the same way they felt about Carter- betrayed

My Jewish neighbors -- note the plural-- are easily the most supportive of Obama of anyone in the neighborhood. From the signs, already up, to how they packed the streets two weeks ago when the presidential motorcade drove through.

How and why do you get the anti-Israel perception? I get that more from the conservatives I know.

[redskin_rich]

As a side note, it is my opinion that anyone who puts a sign up in their yard and/or a sticker on their car, is a pretentious moron.

[RedskinsDave]

Originally Posted by redskin_rich

My Jewish neighbors -- note the plural-- are easily the most supportive of Obama of anyone in the neighborhood. From the signs, already up, to how they packed the streets two weeks ago when the presidential motorcade drove through.

How and why do you get the anti-Israel perception? I get that more from the conservatives I know.

There are extremely conservative Jewish sects up here. But we are talking about bass ackwards sort of conservative where the men and women don't mix socially and they marry off and start having kids as kids.

[CNYSkinFan]

Originally Posted by cal_junior

Wow, "at his core"? What reason do they give for that?

because he is a black muslim of course

[shally]

Originally Posted by Ibleedburgundy

That's odd. My wife's family is jewish and they love Obama.

Anyway:



http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefi...-jewish-voters

so it seems you are talking out of both sides of your mouth.. i think the poll numbers are reflective of a more accurate picture

[shally]

Originally Posted by CNYSkinFan

because he is a black muslim of course

dont be intentionally stupid.. most older Jewish voters see politicians through the lens of how supportive they are of Israel..It is also a generational issue with younger voters tending to not be that "one issue"

but on the core issue of Jerusalem being the capitol of the Jewish state, Obama has chosen a position which is nuanced to the point of trying to have it both ways.. it doesnt work

and you dont have to be a muslim to be anti-semitic.. but most black muslims are- or at least the positions taken by the organization are anti semitic

Originally Posted by redskin_rich

My Jewish neighbors -- note the plural-- are easily the most supportive of Obama of anyone in the neighborhood. From the signs, already up, to how they packed the streets two weeks ago when the presidential motorcade drove through.

How and why do you get the anti-Israel perception? I get that more from the conservatives I know.

because he has gone out of his way to be insulting to the current regime- expecting that Netanyahu would not survive politically.. he guessed wrong

Originally Posted by Ibleedburgundy

That's odd. My wife's family is jewish and they love Obama.

Anyway:



http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefi...-jewish-voters

i guess your wife is among the 64% supporting him.. but that is a big drop off from prior levels by any measure

again, his donations from Jews have dropped as well

[akhhorus]

Originally Posted by shally

nope.
nope.
nope.

i dont think you are in touch with what the perception of Obama is among the Jewish community. I dont have a sample other than what my family and friends are....

My logics professor would call these statements contradictory lol

Originally Posted by shally

and most of them are dyed in the wool liberals from way back.. most feel that Obama is anti-Israel, and anti Semitic at his core. none of them will support him financially or vote for him in the fall.. some will sit on the hands because they simply cannot vote for a Republican, most will vote for Romney. Many feel about him the same way they felt about Carter- betrayed

There's nothing in the polling suggesting this drop off. And out of the 7 or so million Jews in this country, 4.2 of them are in States which will vote for Obama almost no matter what with another million-1.5 mil in states that will vote Romney no matter what.

Originally Posted by shally

again, his donations from Jews have dropped as well

I don't think this is true either. Obama held 2 fundraisers with Jewish orgs in June, both sold out within minutes and raised a ton.

[RedskinsDave]

Originally Posted by akhhorus

There's nothing in the polling suggesting this drop off. And out of the 7 or so million Jews in this country, 4.2 of them are in States which will vote for Obama almost no matter what with another million-1.5 mil in states that will vote Romney no matter what.

That's the best point. It wouldn't matter anyways.

[cal_junior]

Originally Posted by shally

but on the core issue of Jerusalem being the capitol of the Jewish state, Obama has chosen a position which is nuanced to the point of trying to have it both ways.. it doesnt work

Yeah, but that seems more like trying to be a typical politician - i.e. make everybody happy. And while I agree it doesn't work, it's a pretty big leap from there to anti-semitic.