Akh's Thoughts: 2011 Post Mortem

[akhhorus]

Link

Guff on!(Guff will not be taken between 1-4.30 pm)

[AustinSkin]

Very nice analysis. Can't say I agree with all of it, but here are a few comments:

* Trent Williams and Fred Davis need a serious "heart-to-heart" talk and they need to take a blood oath to lay off the weed until their playing days are over. If they are truly apologetic and completely committed to the team, then sign them and keep them. We need to develop a very strong O-Line, with depth to protect our franchise QB prospects.

* Re-sign Fletcher. He's past the twilight of his career, but he came out of 2011 as the league's leading tackler healthy. If he's in shape, keep him.

* I think the grades on Cofield were pretty harsh. I thought he played better. We do need a bona-fide nose tackle. Hopefully Jarvis Jenkins comes back healthy to shore up the D-Line.

* Not sure about Hankerson. Labrum injuries scare the heck out of me. We do need to find a tall receiver, with hands to provide our new franchise QB with a legitimate red zone threat that the QB can throw a jump-ball endzone fade to. I really wish we could have picked up Plaxico this year, despite the baggage.

* I would favor Flynn, Orton or even someone like Delhomme over Jason Campbell. Jason is way too one-dimensional.

*My "sleeper" pick for QB is Brandon Weeden. Get him as an insurance policy. Good footwork, fast decision making, quick release and great accuracy. Justin Blackmon is hands-down the best receiver in the draft. Someone had to throw to him.

[shally]

Originally Posted by AustinSkin

Very nice analysis. Can't say I agree with all of it, but here are a few comments:

* Trent Williams and Fred Davis need a serious "heart-to-heart" talk and they need to take a blood oath to lay off the weed until their playing days are over. If they are truly apologetic and completely committed to the team, then sign them and keep them. We need to develop a very strong O-Line, with depth to protect our franchise QB prospects.

* Re-sign Fletcher. He's past the twilight of his career, but he came out of 2011 as the league's leading tackler healthy. If he's in shape, keep him.

* I think the grades on Cofield were pretty harsh. I thought he played better. We do need a bona-fide nose tackle. Hopefully Jarvis Jenkins comes back healthy to shore up the D-Line.

* Not sure about Hankerson. Labrum injuries scare the heck out of me. We do need to find a tall receiver, with hands to provide our new franchise QB with a legitimate red zone threat that the QB can throw a jump-ball endzone fade to. I really wish we could have picked up Plaxico this year, despite the baggage.

* I would favor Flynn, Orton or even someone like Delhomme over Jason Campbell. Jason is way too one-dimensional.

*My "sleeper" pick for QB is Brandon Weeden. Get him as an insurance policy. Good footwork, fast decision making, quick release and great accuracy. Justin Blackmon is hands-down the best receiver in the draft. Someone had to throw to him.

Weedon is older than Flynn-- just saying...

[Ibleedburgundy]

Need to see a lot more from Hankerson before he can be considered a successful draft pick. Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly both had one big game a piece as well.

If Shanny/Allen take a CB at #6 overall I'm going to have to revisit that "what will you do..." thread. CB's don't win championships. Just look at the iggles. They might have the best CB trio of all time and they didn't even make the paloffs.

Also, there were at least a few of us predicting 3-6 wins. I know I did. IIRC, there was a thread where Cowherd predicted 2-14 for the Skins. That had a lot of posters upset but there were a few of us who thought that was possible:

http://www.hailredskins.com/vbforum/...96#post1392296

[akhhorus]

Originally Posted by AustinSkin

Very nice analysis. Can't say I agree with all of it, but here are a few comments:

* Trent Williams and Fred Davis need a serious "heart-to-heart" talk and they need to take a blood oath to lay off the weed until their playing days are over. If they are truly apologetic and completely committed to the team, then sign them and keep them. We need to develop a very strong O-Line, with depth to protect our franchise QB prospects.

Ironically, Cheech and Chong were required to take a surprise drug test this morning.

Originally Posted by AustinSkin

* Re-sign Fletcher. He's past the twilight of his career, but he came out of 2011 as the league's leading tackler healthy. If he's in shape, keep him.

I'd like to keep him, but I wouldn't overpay.

Originally Posted by AustinSkin

* I think the grades on Cofield were pretty harsh. I thought he played better. We do need a bona-fide nose tackle. Hopefully Jarvis Jenkins comes back healthy to shore up the D-Line.

I don't know if Jenkins would be any better at NT because he's so tall. Cofield should be a DE, he's a disaster against the run.

Originally Posted by AustinSkin

* Not sure about Hankerson. Labrum injuries scare the heck out of me. We do need to find a tall receiver, with hands to provide our new franchise QB with a legitimate red zone threat that the QB can throw a jump-ball endzone fade to. I really wish we could have picked up Plaxico this year, despite the baggage.

* I would favor Flynn, Orton or even someone like Delhomme over Jason Campbell. Jason is way too one-dimensional.

*My "sleeper" pick for QB is Brandon Weeden. Get him as an insurance policy. Good footwork, fast decision making, quick release and great accuracy. Justin Blackmon is hands-down the best receiver in the draft. Someone had to throw to him.

Originally Posted by shally

Weedon is older than Flynn-- just saying...

What Shally said. Weedon will be 29 next season. Id rather get a QB prospect that I don't have to replace by the time he learns the NFL.

Originally Posted by Ibleedburgundy

Need to see a lot more from Hankerson before he can be considered a successful draft pick. Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly both had one big game a piece as well.

A mid 3rd for Hankerson though.

Originally Posted by Ibleedburgundy

If Shanny/Allen take a CB at #6 overall I'm going to have to revisit that "what will you do..." thread. CB's don't win championships. Just look at the iggles. They might have the best CB trio of all time and they didn't even make the paloffs.

I totally agree, but decision makers talk themselves into the wrong pick more often then talking themselves into the right pick.

Originally Posted by Ibleedburgundy

Also, there were at least a few of us predicting 3-6 wins. I know I did. IIRC, there was a thread where Cowherd predicted 2-14 for the Skins. That had a lot of posters upset but there were a few of us who thought that was possible:

http://www.hailredskins.com/vbforum/...96#post1392296

This is true, I shouldn't have said "everyone" but I got a visceral reaction to my 4 win prediction this past summer.

[AustinSkin]

Originally Posted by shally

Weedon is older than Flynn-- just saying...

I know he is older, and I am not suggesting that he be the sole focus of our pursuit for a franchise QB. If available in the middle rounds, I would pick him up for insurance.

His body hasn't been hammered for eight years, so he could have 5-6 decent years as a QB in the NFL. If he has all of the skills, combined with the intelligence to pick up the system, I would be happy to have him on board.

[oldskinfan]

Nice read though taken with a grain of salt since written in hindsight.

Your suggestions as GM were also interesting though hard to imagine all that falling in place. Funny I was thinking about Quinn and Young as options at QB this morning as an alternative to the Flynn love-fest.

When I think of this year's roster, it really isn't half bad, but two things stand out as glaring needs to me.

'Nuff said about the QB position. Hard to find a Brees, Rodgers, or Brady, but my gosh, the QB play could not have been more abysmal taken as a whole.

To me the other GLARING need is WR. We don't have a #1. Gaffney is barely a decent #2 and Moss is now a #3 slot at best.

So as much as it would be exciting to see Luck or RGIII in a uni, a decent plan B to me would be Blackmon at #6 (if RGIII is gone) and Tannehill or Foles to develop, with getting a placeholder like Young, Orton, or Quinn.

I know it is possible, but I just can't stomach another year of Grossman - a QB who defends his automatic 2 turnovers per game by making the occasional good play ANY DECENT STARTING QB should make. Agree this was the single most glaring problem this year, and Shanny has to take the heat for that.

[akhhorus]

Originally Posted by oldskinfan

Nice read though taken with a grain of salt since written in hindsight.

Your suggestions as GM were also interesting though hard to imagine all that falling in place. Funny I was thinking about Quinn and Young as options at QB this morning as an alternative to the Flynn love-fest.

I don't think either is a good one to Flynn or a rookie. Another option would be offering a pick for Josh Freeman since the entire coaching staff was scrambled.

Originally Posted by oldskinfan

When I think of this year's roster, it really isn't half bad, but two things stand out as glaring needs to me.

'Nuff said about the QB position. Hard to find a Brees, Rodgers, or Brady, but my gosh, the QB play could not have been more abysmal taken as a whole.

To me the other GLARING need is WR. We don't have a #1. Gaffney is barely a decent #2 and Moss is now a #3 slot at best.

I don't like Gaffney's preening, but as a 3rd guy to Hankerson and someone else, I think that he could be very effective. 50 first downs speaks for itself imo.

Originally Posted by oldskinfan

So as much as it would be exciting to see Luck or RGIII in a uni, a decent plan B to me would be Blackmon at #6 (if RGIII is gone) and Tannehill or Foles to develop, with getting a placeholder like Young, Orton, or Quinn.

I know it is possible, but I just can't stomach another year of Grossman - a QB who defends his automatic 2 turnovers per game by making the occasional good play ANY DECENT STARTING QB should make.

As long as you fix that QB spot with someone of quality, the WR position can be fixed cheaper then with the #6 pick imo.

[shally]

Originally Posted by akhhorus

I don't think either is a good one to Flynn or a rookie. Another option would be offering a pick for Josh Freeman since the entire coaching staff was scrambled.



I don't like Gaffney's preening, but as a 3rd guy to Hankerson and someone else, I think that he could be very effective. 50 first downs speaks for itself imo.



As long as you fix that QB spot with someone of quality, the WR position can be fixed cheaper then with the #6 pick imo.

the way Freeman has regressed, I am not sure i would want him right now.
saw parts of the game yesterday, and he looked dreadful

he looks like an entirely different QB than the guy who was "money" last year in leading the Bucs to 9 victories

agree about the WR position.. when you can get guys like Cruz and Colsen at the end of the draft, there is no reason to use the #6 pick on a WR..
third round is about the right place for value

[shally]

Originally Posted by AustinSkin

I know he is older, and I am not suggesting that he be the sole focus of our pursuit for a franchise QB. If available in the middle rounds, I would pick him up for insurance.

His body hasn't been hammered for eight years, so he could have 5-6 decent years as a QB in the NFL. If he has all of the skills, combined with the intelligence to pick up the system, I would be happy to have him on board.

he is going to go in the 3-4th round.. maybe higher if he has a solid combine..

unless we are going to sign a guy like Orton or Flynn it makes little sense to use that kind of pick on a guy who will be over 30 before he is ready to start, based upon experience

better to roll with Tannehill or Foles who can afford to learn for a couple of years and still be under 25

[akhhorus]

Originally Posted by shally

the way Freeman has regressed, I am not sure i would want him right now.
saw parts of the game yesterday, and he looked dreadful

he looks like an entirely different QB than the guy who was "money" last year in leading the Bucs to 9 victories

I really wonder if Freeman's nightmare season was because of a crappy team+hand/arm injuries or if he regressed.

[shally]

Originally Posted by akhhorus

I really wonder if Freeman's nightmare season was because of a crappy team+hand/arm injuries or if he regressed.

Question:

If Bradford, Freeman, and Flynn are all available, who is the guy you want to see Shanahn go after ? what would you pay for each ?

[akhhorus]

Originally Posted by shally

Question:

If Bradford, Freeman, and Flynn are all available, who is the guy you want to see Shanahn go after ? what would you pay for each ?

I responded to your comment about a Bradford trade: if he's dealt, his cap figure next year is 29 million and all his escalator clauses are provoked(adds 40 million overall to his contract). He's not getting dealt.

If the choice is a 3rd for Freeman or 30-40 million for Flynn. I would deal for Freeman.

[WinnpegSkinsFan]

Good read, AKH.
I agree with most of your points.
One I particularly agree with was your opinion on the NT position. I don't understand why they signed Cofield over Franklin last year. Neither are fits for their current positions/teams.

I won't say much about the rest except that I don't necessarily think that Shanny will talk himself into a 3yr contract for Grossman. However, if he does I will be first in line calling for his firing. Grossman has no business any where near DC in 2012.

[shally]

Originally Posted by akhhorus

I really wonder if Freeman's nightmare season was because of a crappy team+hand/arm injuries or if he regressed.

no question, the team quit around Freeman.. but that is what you have leaders for.. it was his team, and i think some of his behavior was immature and led to disintegration of the team

also, maybe despite all the plaudits for "building a team the right way" and going 10-6 it was simply a lucky year for them ?

whatever, it looks like the decision to take Freeman with a top 10 pick in the draft may have been deeply flawed ?

one thing for sure, they are going to have a critical offseason, and likely a tumultuous one as well