Akh's Thoughts: 2011 Post Mortem

[oldskinfan]

Originally Posted by Brokenstriker

High Priority to Improve: Quarterback, Strong Safety
Significant Improvement Desired: Off Tackle, Cornerback, Free Safety, Center (depth), Kicker, Snapper
Not Ideal or Complete: Wide Receiver, Guard, Tight End, D Line, Inside LB
Looks Pretty Good: Running Back, Fullback, Punter

Disagree on WR corps as a whole. We sorely need a true #1. It's too risky to just assume Hankerson will become that guy.

I would keep Hankerson, relegate Moss to 3rd down, keep Gaffney, and draft or go after a true #1 like Bowe, or Blackmon.

[akhhorus]

Originally Posted by oldskinfan

Disagree on WR corps as a whole. We sorely need a true #1. It's too risky to just assume Hankerson will become that guy.

I would keep Hankerson, relegate Moss to 3rd down, keep Gaffney, and draft or go after a true #1 like Bowe, or Blackmon.

True, but the skins shouldn't have to expend a top 10 pick on it. FWIW, the average draft position of the pro bowl WRs this year was 79th. I'd look for the next 2nd or 3rd round steal to team with Hankerson.

[oldskinfan]

Originally Posted by akhhorus

True, but the skins shouldn't have to expend a top 10 pick on it. FWIW, the average draft position of the pro bowl WRs this year was 79th. I'd look for the next 2nd or 3rd round steal to team with Hankerson.

But like picking QBs later, there is also a higher bust factor for WRs with grades 15-30, which can be risky compared to 2nd or 3rd rounders, but there are some WRs that are just obvious top 10 grades. I just happen to think Blackmon is one of them, just like Alshon Jeffery Or Megatron. Or Andre Johnson.

And no I don't count the stupid picks that Matt Millen made with Rogers and Williams. :-)

Also, I don't trust our current personnel people to find late round WRs the way the Giants, Packers, or Saints do. We lucked into Hankerson IF he pans out.

[akhhorus]

Originally Posted by oldskinfan

But like picking QBs later, there is also a higher bust factor for WRs with grades 15-30, which can be risky compared to 2nd or 3rd rounders, but there are some WRs that are just obvious top 10 grades. I just happen to think Blackmon is one of them, just like Alshon Jeffery Or Megatron. Or Andre Johnson.

And no I don't count the stupid picks that Matt Millen made with Rogers and Williams. :-)

Also, I don't trust our current personnel people to find late round WRs the way the Giants, Packers, or Saints do.

I don't either, and while I still don't think that Shanny will do much about the QB spot, if I had to choose I'd do whatever it took to get RG3 or Luck with the first pick and worry about the WR spot later. I don't think that even getting Alshon or Blackmon will do much to improve the team if Rex or another subpar Qb is throwing to him.

[cal_junior]

Originally Posted by akhhorus

f I had to choose I'd do whatever it took to get RG3 or Luck with the first pick and worry about the WR spot later. I don't think that even getting Alshon or Blackmon will do much to improve the team if Rex or another subpar Qb is throwing to him.

+1

I think good QB play elevates mediocre WRs far more than good WR play elevates mediocre QBs.

[Brokenstriker]

Originally Posted by oldskinfan

Disagree on WR corps as a whole. We sorely need a true #1. It's too risky to just assume Hankerson will become that guy.

I would keep Hankerson, relegate Moss to 3rd down, keep Gaffney, and draft or go after a true #1 like Bowe, or Blackmon.

I agree with you. But in a relative sense I put that priority behind some other significant shortcomings. As a group there are some decent players who can line up at receiver ... but ...
QB ... desirable starter not on the roster
SS ... desirable starter not on the roster (given Landry may not recover or return to his 2010 pre injury level of play, Gomes gets run over, Doughty is ... well ... Doughty)
OT ... Williams is one doobie away from blacklisted and Brown isn't the guy, others unproven potential at best ...
Cornerback ... aside from Wilson ... nada unless Westbrook or Robinson surprise ... so desirable 2nd CB starter not on roster (given I would part with Hall)
FS and C ... only one player ... black hole if they get or remain injured
K and LS ... unreliable and too important to accept misses and blocks on make-able kicks
WR ... some starting caliber talent available if not an ideal "#1" receiver ... but some chance that could be Hankerson if he recovers and picks up where he left off

[oldskinfan]

Originally Posted by akhhorus

I don't either, and while I still don't think that Shanny will do much about the QB spot, if I had to choose I'd do whatever it took to get RG3 or Luck with the first pick and worry about the WR spot later. I don't think that even getting Alshon or Blackmon will do much to improve the team if Rex or another subpar Qb is throwing to him.

+1000.

On WTEM, Tom Lovero said next year, given a choice between Grossman and "scrap heap QB", he would choose the scrap heap. Can you imagine the effect of a turnover machine like Grossman as a mentor to a young QB?

Getting rid of Grossman and Beck is addition by subtraction. I'm thinking Kellen Clemens would have fared better.

[akhhorus]

Originally Posted by oldskinfan

+1000.

On WTEM, Tom Lovero said next year, given a choice between Grossman and "scrap heap QB", he would choose the scrap heap. Can you imagine the effect of a turnover machine like Grossman as a mentor to a young QB?

Getting rid of Grossman and Beck is addition by subtraction. I'm thinking Kellen Clemens would have fared better.

I'd rather resign Randle El and run the triple option then go with Grossman next year. And now we see why there's always been zero interest in Beck in the rest of the league. But until we start hearing sniping at Grossman in the press(from obvious places with ties to the Shanaclan), resigning him is probably in the cards.

[cal_junior]

Originally Posted by akhhorus

The Vikes almost dealt for Vjax once, how much do you want to bet that they go hard after him a 2nd time?

You may be right. Although FA corner + Blackmon's rookie contract might be cheaper (and better) than FA VJax + Claiborne's rookie contract.

[akhhorus]

Originally Posted by cal_junior

You may be right. Although FA corner + Blackmon's rookie contract might be cheaper (and better) than FA VJax + Claiborne's rookie contract.

Minny seems like a prime candidate to offer DeAngelo Hall to for a ham sandwich. His contract is light without his bonuses and the skins save 6 mil by dealing him.

[Brokenstriker]

Originally Posted by akhhorus

I'd rather resign Randle El and run the triple option then go with Grossman next year. And now we see why there's always been zero interest in Beck in the rest of the league. But until we start hearing sniping at Grossman in the press(from obvious places with ties to the Shanaclan), resigning him is probably in the cards.

as much as I still feel ill watching and learning to plan on Rex giving the ball away ... he's got some things they need in a back up ... he knows the play book, he knows the personnel, he appears to have a really good attitude/personality/huddle presense and he made no noise, created no waves, had no negative quotes in the press when he appeared to be destined to be the back-up QB. The risk of imprinting his slopping ball protection and bad throws/decisions on a rookie QB ... not too worried about that ... besides there's always the "if you play like Rex you'll go from marqee player to bench-warmer just like he has" coaching point option

[akhhorus]

Originally Posted by Brokenstriker

as much as I still feel ill watching and learning to plan on Rex giving the ball away ... he's got some things they need in a back up ... he knows the play book, he knows the personnel, he appears to have a really good attitude/personality/huddle presense and he made no noise, created no waves, had no negative quotes in the press when he appeared to be destined to be the back-up QB. The risk of imprinting his slopping ball protection and bad throws/decisions on a rookie QB ... not too worried about that ... besides there's always the "if you play like Rex you'll go from marqee player to bench-warmer just like he has" coaching point option

I'd much rather have someone else in that role, even if it taking on someone like Shaun Hill, Orton, Henne, whatever. I'd much rather have a backup or seatfiller who won't turn the ball over like Rex does.

[flave1969]

Akh great job. Appreciate the time and effort you put into these things. Some really interesting stuff in there. This is going to be a very nervy off season for us all. It seems most folk agree that we need a new QB but I think people really need to prepare for Rex to be our QB next year.

[oldskinfan]

Originally Posted by akhhorus

I'd much rather have someone else in that role, even if it taking on someone like Shaun Hill, Orton, Henne, whatever. I'd much rather have a backup or seatfiller who won't turn the ball over like Rex does.

I am sure I'd love having Rex as a drinking buddy. But he's like an alcoholic who doesn't seem to think he REALLY has a problem. He always SAYS the right think about reducing turnovers, but the dude is what he is. A turnover machine. I can accept this from a rookie or 2nd year player, but dude has been doing this for 9 years. I don't want that to rub off on any young QB in the fold.
In 9 years Rex a TD to INT ratio of 56 to 60.

Some of the candidates Akh mentions above as well as other FA QBs:
Shaun Hill : 39 to 23
Kyle Orton : 80 to 57
Alex Smith: 68 to 58
Jason Campbell: 74 to 50 (yes that JC!)

[akhhorus]

Originally Posted by flave1969

Akh great job. Appreciate the time and effort you put into these things. Some really interesting stuff in there. This is going to be a very nervy off season for us all. It seems most folk agree that we need a new QB but I think people really need to prepare for Rex to be our QB next year.

Appreciated.

Originally Posted by oldskinfan

I am sure I'd love having Rex as a drinking buddy. But he's like an alcoholic who doesn't seem to think he REALLY has a problem. He always SAYS the right think about reducing turnovers, but the dude is what he is. A turnover machine. I can accept this from a rookie or 2nd year player, but dude has been doing this for 9 years. I don't want that to rub off on any young QB in the fold.
In 9 years Rex a TD to INT ratio of 56 to 60.

Terrible Qbs are terrible. But what bothers me is what Sally Jenkins pointed out: no int ever seems to be his fault. Every one of them is some individual black swan caused by a very certain set of circumstances. Pass. That and his blubbering on the sidelines when he was benched for Beck in the philly game.