Redskins chomping at the bit to draft the ultimate winner

[44 goes 50 gut]

Originally Posted by wide_awake

Consider what Carson Palmer went for.

Consider that organization has made an incredible number of rash and disasterous moves, and that the guy who did it was obviously out of touch with reality (His quote: "this was the best trade in NFL history") and that he was probably drunk with power from suddenly being in charge of the whole organization...

Oh p*ss on all that just consider that it's the damn Raiders!

[44 goes 50 gut]

Okay IMO people who are clamoring for mortgaging the future to trade up are not seeing is that the Skins STARTING talent is full of holes... perhaps as much as 50% of the starters are people Shanahan has in as "stop gaps" until he can replace them with better more talented and/or younger players. If you look at the starters from a "what will they look like in two or three years" perspective. Which I do.

You have to be incredibly optimistic to think the starters on this team are good enough to be "just a QB away". But forget the starters, look at the depth I'd p*ss people off if I say what you would have to "be" to think that the depth is anywhere good enough. Just to put a figure on it maybe 30% of the depth players are good enough IMO.

IMO with the long view of where the team sits and what it has in the pipeline... it's at least 2 more great drafts from being 2014 or 15's version of the Niners... If those drafts are less than great then its even longer. It took the Niners what 8 to 9 years to rebuild? So that number could be HOPELESSLY OPTIMISTIC. We have to be at least a little realistic... even a good drafter like Shanahan isn't likely to string 3 drafts together as good as '11 appears to have been... And we all know Snyder probably wont give him more than 1 or 2 more drafts, so we'll have to hope Shanahan leaves a good bit of talent (or wins enough to string the process along), and then the next guy has to have comparable draft success.

BTW I know, I know most of you are conditioned by the media to think Shanahan is a bad talent guy, I'm not here to convince people their flat earth is actually round, google it, see the extr*m* Skins forum comparison to Bill Belichick's hits and misses expressed as a percentage (Hint Shanahan has a higher percentage of starters drafted with less picks), and the nice study of where Shanahan placed among great drafting teams like Green Bay, Pats, Steelers, Eagles and Giants (hint: really really good) for the ability to draft starters, pro bowlers, and depth players...)

On the chance (hopefully outside chance) our rebuild takes as long as the Niner's, we're talking about 2018 or 2020...How important will it be to have gotten our franchise QB this off season at premium cost if the team doesn't have the talent to be a good playoff team for 6 or 8 or more years?

Frankly I think they will have a outside shot at Barkley or L Jones next year, so if a move like Flynn doesn't pan out, they still have trade up options. Or maybe even draft the guy outright early to mid round (but not second overall) without having to give up picks. Get over the idea that some QB is going to come in next year for instant playoffs, no matter how good a QB they hypothetically find, they wont do more than Back in to them, in a weak division. They wont even do that if the Eagles gel a little and play closer to their talent level.

Remember the Niners are a storied franchise with fans who don't accept "sucking" either... Don't be a homer and think "We are the Skins, we're different than the Niners! We have to be good right away!". We've been thinking that for 20 years now and it's just not been remotely true... In fact because of this mentality "the team MUST WIN NOW" they've regressed for the most part. The sad fact is there's nothing guaranteeing that the next 20 years wont be more of the same, so long as an impatient fan owns the franchise.

[redcayman]

No offense to the we have too many holes posters. I don't think anyone on this board thinks we are just one player away from success. I just think its time to stop screwing around and take a chance on a real QB. There is free agency to address some of the holes. Hopefully we will get better and won't be drafting in the top ten next year. That means this a great opportunity to try for a big time QB. I want someone on this team for the next 10 + years who has the talent to make us relevant again.

[jaylen]

I don't see this team as full of holes we were a competent qb away from being a solid team even without any real playmakers.

If we simply got a solid to good qb 2 playmakers offensively I think we are a playoff team. We have more depth on the o line now, we have tailbacks, our defensive front 7 is good not great and we could use some secondary help.

I think we need to secure that qb 1st and foremost then plug the play making holes in free agency.

We should be moving up giving away some of the picks we aren't all that bare as we were 2-3 years ago. We need to draft and mold a quality qb prospect.

[sinskin]

Get the QB!

[Arkangiest]

Originally Posted by redcayman

No offense to the we have too many holes posters. I don't think anyone on this board thinks we are just one player away from success. I just think its time to stop screwing around and take a chance on a real QB. There is free agency to address some of the holes. Hopefully we will get better and won't be drafting in the top ten next year. That means this a great opportunity to try for a big time QB. I want someone on this team for the next 10 + years who has the talent to make us relevant again.

Hell yes!

Originally Posted by jaylen

I don't see this team as full of holes we were a competent qb away from being a solid team even without any real playmakers.

If we simply got a solid to good qb 2 playmakers offensively I think we are a playoff team. We have more depth on the o line now, we have tailbacks, our defensive front 7 is good not great and we could use some secondary help.

I think we need to secure that qb 1st and foremost then plug the play making holes in free agency.

We should be moving up giving away some of the picks we aren't all that bare as we were 2-3 years ago. We need to draft and mold a quality qb prospect.

Hell Yeah!

Originally Posted by sinskin

Get the QB!

Only 4 months away!

[44 goes 50 gut]

This is why you all are going to feel snubbed when all the prognosticators predict a losing season. Its why you'll be tremendously let down when they dont go to the playoffs like all the homers expect when they get excited about the new players, like they did when McNabb was traded for... Campbell moved up for, Gibbs hired, The Stumble Bumble twins, Deon Sanders, Bruce Smith... Jeff George... Oh well I understand that's what fans do... they believe the best case, and hope for even better.

A couple play makers and a QB might make them a playoff team with a near losing record, because of collapses in the division... but that's far from really being a solid playoff team. I recognize that football is full of possibilities otherwise I wouldn't love the sport so much... but you all have to recognize that every team in this division is more talented than the skins at almost every position... Surely you all see that?

Convincing fans that the team is still a couple years away; is like convincing a teenager that they haven't REALLY got the world all figured out... They wont realize you were right until a bunch of years go by and even then they're liable to ask you why you didn't warn them about how completely wrong they were.

[WRSK1NS]

Originally Posted by dj_stouty

Having looked back at the past several years; at this point, I don't see any other alternative than trading the future for the guy we want. Its about time we put some serious stock into the game's most important position.

We did the "trade down" thing with Ramsey and Jason. We brought in the retreads with ties to our coaching staff with guys like Shane, Danny W, and Rex. We also went the older/veteran route with Brunell and McNabb. None of these experiments worked...at least not long term.

We have tried everything lately except getting a QB with a top pick. I've been frustrated watching great Quarterback play around the league while all of Danny's teams have had subpar Quarterback play. Its time for a serious change in direction and I think that needs to start in April by getting RG3 or even Luck if needed.

Someone give this man an amen. AMEN!!! My thoughts exactly...

[Moe]

but you all have to recognize that every team in this division is more talented than the skins at almost every position... Surely you all see that?

The positions where the Skins are clearly trailing their division rivals is at QB and WR, the rest is debatable. Until they get a B level talent or better at QB this team will struggle. If there is an opportunity to get that QB this year then you pay the short term price to get him. History shows that the best odds at landing such a player is high in the draft and others have enumerated the failed methods this team has used (lower picks, free agents, retreads, known commodities, etc.) and all have failed to fill that role. There are too many variables acting against a team to fully set the table and then insert the proper QB, you have to take your shots when they appear.

[DUCKIN_TACKLERS]

Originally Posted by dj_stouty

Having looked back at the past several years; at this point, I don't see any other alternative than trading the future for the guy we want. Its about time we put some serious stock into the game's most important position.

We did the "trade down" thing with Ramsey and Jason. We brought in the retreads with ties to our coaching staff with guys like Shane, Danny W, and Rex. We also went the older/veteran route with Brunell and McNabb. None of these experiments worked...at least not long term.

We have tried everything lately except getting a QB with a top pick. I've been frustrated watching great Quarterback play around the league while all of Danny's teams have had subpar Quarterback play. Its time for a serious change in direction and I think that needs to start in April by getting RG3 or even Luck if needed.

THIS! Yes, I too see the glaring holes at other positions. Yes we are talent voids at multiple positions. What I don't see is how it isnt obvious to others that QB is the hardest position to fill with great talent. Or how others can't see that having a good QB makes up for a multitude of sins.

Yes you can do it the other way. Build the lines, out talent other teams as a whole team, but REALISTICALLY come on. I think going that route is more of a crap shoot, long term project then fixing a team with a great QB already in hand. The Saints are a premier example of how easy it is to fill in around a QB (No they didnt give up picks, but that team was TALENT void way worse then we are currently). They now have a stout O-line, Above Average to Premier WR's and a servicable D. All of which where brought in with players drafted after the 2nd round or thru FA (OL, Colston, Vilma)

I guess what I am saying is you swing for the fences on a QB. If that means you now have to draft your line in the 3rd round I see that as less of a reach then hoping a flawed or inexperienced QB is the answer to your franchise.. IMO it is less risk adverse considering the willingness we have to utilize FA that other drafting sucess team seem to not have.

[Hrabanmaur]

Originally Posted by 44 goes 50 gut

This is why you all are going to feel snubbed when all the prognosticators predict a losing season. Its why you'll be tremendously let down when they dont go to the playoffs like all the homers expect when they get excited about the new players, like they did when McNabb was traded for... Campbell moved up for, Gibbs hired, The Stumble Bumble twins, Deon Sanders, Bruce Smith... Jeff George... Oh well I understand that's what fans do... they believe the best case, and hope for even better.

A couple play makers and a QB might make them a playoff team with a near losing record, because of collapses in the division... but that's far from really being a solid playoff team. I recognize that football is full of possibilities otherwise I wouldn't love the sport so much... but you all have to recognize that every team in this division is more talented than the skins at almost every position... Surely you all see that?

Convincing fans that the team is still a couple years away; is like convincing a teenager that they haven't REALLY got the world all figured out... They wont realize you were right until a bunch of years go by and even then they're liable to ask you why you didn't warn them about how completely wrong they were.

I'm not about to say that we're headed for the playoffs next year, but it strikes me that your post-season pessimism is clouding things here. It doesn't take a team a decade to build a contender, and it's just hyperbole to say that every team in this division is more talented than the skins at almost every position. Our defense finished with a rank of 13 on the season, and our offense 16. That's with Rex Grossman as QB! We're not the worst in the league, and we did have a great number of injuries and suspensions (which exposed our lack of depth).

You're right to call out anyone saying "playoffs" next year just because we get a new QB (ahem...we better get a new QB). Next year is likely still going to see a fair amount of suckitude, but I don't think we're as abysmal as you've described.

[CNYSkinFan]

Originally Posted by 44 goes 50 gut

This is why you all are going to feel snubbed when all the prognosticators predict a losing season. Its why you'll be tremendously let down when they dont go to the playoffs like all the homers expect when they get excited about the new players, like they did when McNabb was traded for... Campbell moved up for, Gibbs hired, The Stumble Bumble twins, Deon Sanders, Bruce Smith... Jeff George... Oh well I understand that's what fans do... they believe the best case, and hope for even better.

A couple play makers and a QB might make them a playoff team with a near losing record, because of collapses in the division... but that's far from really being a solid playoff team. I recognize that football is full of possibilities otherwise I wouldn't love the sport so much... but you all have to recognize that every team in this division is more talented than the skins at almost every position... Surely you all see that?

Convincing fans that the team is still a couple years away; is like convincing a teenager that they haven't REALLY got the world all figured out... They wont realize you were right until a bunch of years go by and even then they're liable to ask you why you didn't warn them about how completely wrong they were.

I know you believe yourself to be above most fans but unless you have a professional affiliation with football, guess what your just a fan too. For all the derision you give others for what you percieve as arrogance your posts literally drip with it.

Unfortunateely your decades long rebuild timeline is pure horse puckey. the reason the San Fran rebuild took so long is they spent 3-5 years in Salary Cap hell and had coaching turnover during that time with new personnell brought in.

A more apt comparison is Detroit. matt Millen ran that team into the ground with horrible drafting and an unexpected retirement of Barry Sanders. Millens last off season with Detroit was 2008. In 2009 they drafted Mathew Stafford with the new regime and properly started the rebuild. 3 years later they are in the playoffs. only 2-3 players drafted from Millen's tenure are their now.

Take the Atlanta Falcon rebuild, done masterfully after Vick's incarceration. Almost the whole roster was turned over and now they bare perennial playoff contenders. Maybe they wont win a playoff game but that is a problem I would like to have.

there are literally hundreds of stories where teams bottomed out and rebuilt in 3 years. In each story you have a really bad year where a new regime truly evaluates talent followed by then next year the acquisition of a top notch college qb, then spending 2-3 more years filling in other needs through fa and draft. There are certainly more cases of this happening then ten year rebuilds.

I also find it ironic you pointed out the sf 49ers when what really propelled them to great status this year was a firing of a horrible coach (Singletary) replacing him with hungry college coach who looked at basically the same roster, reworked the system and made them better.

[CNYSkinFan]

Originally Posted by 44 goes 50 gut

Okay IMO people who are clamoring for mortgaging the future to trade up are not seeing is that the Skins STARTING talent is full of holes... perhaps as much as 50% of the starters are people Shanahan has in as "stop gaps" until he can replace them with better more talented and/or younger players. If you look at the starters from a "what will they look like in two or three years" perspective. Which I do.

You have to be incredibly optimistic to think the starters on this team are good enough to be "just a QB away". But forget the starters, look at the depth I'd p*ss people off if I say what you would have to "be" to think that the depth is anywhere good enough. Just to put a figure on it maybe 30% of the depth players are good enough IMO.

IMO with the long view of where the team sits and what it has in the pipeline... it's at least 2 more great drafts from being 2014 or 15's version of the Niners... If those drafts are less than great then its even longer. It took the Niners what 8 to 9 years to rebuild? So that number could be HOPELESSLY OPTIMISTIC. We have to be at least a little realistic... even a good drafter like Shanahan isn't likely to string 3 drafts together as good as '11 appears to have been... And we all know Snyder probably wont give him more than 1 or 2 more drafts, so we'll have to hope Shanahan leaves a good bit of talent (or wins enough to string the process along), and then the next guy has to have comparable draft success.

BTW I know, I know most of you are conditioned by the media to think Shanahan is a bad talent guy, I'm not here to convince people their flat earth is actually round, google it, see the extr*m* Skins forum comparison to Bill Belichick's hits and misses expressed as a percentage (Hint Shanahan has a higher percentage of starters drafted with less picks), and the nice study of where Shanahan placed among great drafting teams like Green Bay, Pats, Steelers, Eagles and Giants (hint: really really good) for the ability to draft starters, pro bowlers, and depth players...)

On the chance (hopefully outside chance) our rebuild takes as long as the Niner's, we're talking about 2018 or 2020...How important will it be to have gotten our franchise QB this off season at premium cost if the team doesn't have the talent to be a good playoff team for 6 or 8 or more years?

Frankly I think they will have a outside shot at Barkley or L Jones next year, so if a move like Flynn doesn't pan out, they still have trade up options. Or maybe even draft the guy outright early to mid round (but not second overall) without having to give up picks. Get over the idea that some QB is going to come in next year for instant playoffs, no matter how good a QB they hypothetically find, they wont do more than Back in to them, in a weak division. They wont even do that if the Eagles gel a little and play closer to their talent level.

Remember the Niners are a storied franchise with fans who don't accept "sucking" either... Don't be a homer and think "We are the Skins, we're different than the Niners! We have to be good right away!". We've been thinking that for 20 years now and it's just not been remotely true... In fact because of this mentality "the team MUST WIN NOW" they've regressed for the most part. The sad fact is there's nothing guaranteeing that the next 20 years wont be more of the same, so long as an impatient fan owns the franchise.

Just because Shanny drafted a higher percentage of starters does not mean he is a better talent evaluator. That is like saying that Sean Taylor and Laron LAndry were both equal because they were both drafted highly and both start. The better question is how good were those starters. If your a starter on a franchise (like sptpeh heyer for example) it does not mean you are necessarily that good, just othyers are that bad.

Whil I think Shanny did ok with some of last year's draft picks, his decision to basically ignore the OL was criminal. Coupled with the fact that he drafted 3 young wrs then traded for or signed 3 30+ year old receivers that they sat behind all year makes that ommission even greater. It's not just about the individuals you draft but whether they fit your schemes or needs at the time. Anybody can hit with the high draft picks, Even Vinny did, its the mid round 3-6 where you make your team truly better then the others. Getting quality players, maybe even starters, out of that group is a must in today's nfl.

Right now in Shanny's two draft only Perry Riley and Hankerson look promising...and that is being very generous for Hank and Riley in limited playing time. I still contend all of our picks in those rounds would have been better served on quality ol.

[44 goes 50 gut]

You can find teams that turned it around quickly but you can also find teams that have spent 20 years unable to turn anything around. You're looking at outliers, either way. Extreme ends of the spectrum. IMO most rebuilds end up somewhere between the two extremes. 0-16 to first round Playoff loss within 3 years is not a common occurrence. But please by all means cite 100 of them... heck I'm a nice guy cite HALF that many.

I don't think its condescending to point out when someone's clearly being unrealistic or overly optimistic. Especially when I am generalizing. And saying "homer" or "rose colored glasses" its hardly the worst term flung around here. But I do think that someone who commonly calls anyone who disagrees with him a "Shanahan apologist" has to be a serious hypocrit to constantly object to anyone ELSE characterizing others opinions.

As far as quantifying who's drafted what talent: Most draft analysis need to rely on OBJECTIVE evidence... unfortunately the only objective measure of talent that isn't bogged down in stats and personal opinion is pro bowls. The article we were just talking about compares pro bowl players drafted. And guess what. Shanahan shows as comparable to; some cases better than the Pats, GB, Steelers, Giants in number of pro bowlers drafted, over the same timeframe, with in some cases less draft picks. The pats I believe had one or two more Pro bowlers with (predictably) more draft picks used to get them. Same goes for 3rd to 6th rounders, as that article that came up during last years draft showed Shanahan hanging with many of the same above teams... good company for a guy who the media constantly and erroneously paints as a bad talent guy.

I'm not touching the only Riley and Hankerson comment I must be misunderstanding what you mean. As I like Helu, Royster, Nield, Gomes, Paul, Young, Hurt and others as at least good depth if not future starters.

[hail2skins]

I wouldn't use the Pro Bowl for any type of comparison today. There are folks that should be there that aren't and players that are there that shouldn't be.